swataz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Upton is still calling for 1-2" from this storm, primarily on Monday. Based on the discussions on this forum, is that kinda bullish at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Minor improvements on the NAM vs. 6z run. Trough is less positively tilted at hr 54, and further east. PV noticeably further north and east vs. 6z. Allows the qpf further 25 - 50 miles north or so. Obviously not enough to get excited about, but something to just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Minor improvements on the NAM vs. 6z run. Trough is less positively tilted at hr 54, and further east. PV noticeably further north and east vs. 6z. Allows the qpf further 25 - 50 miles north or so. Obviously not enough to get excited about, but something to just watch. There is no doubt that without the miserable overdig at 500mb this thing would end up hitting us because the PV ultimately is lifting out at 42 hours, we'd likely get hit from 45-54 if this storm had not overdug and ejected out at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Minor improvements on the NAM vs. 6z run. Trough is less positively tilted at hr 54, and further east. PV noticeably further north and east vs. 6z. Allows the qpf further 25 - 50 miles north or so. Obviously not enough to get excited about, but something to just watch. Not saying we will get anything out of this but at least it didn't get any worse. Nothing positive transpired whatsoever once the southward trend began during the early March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There is no doubt that without the miserable overdig at 500mb this thing would end up hitting us because the PV ultimately is lifting out at 42 hours, we'd likely get hit from 45-54 if this storm had not overdug and ejected out at 500. Yes, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not saying we will get anything out of this but at least it didn't get any worse. Nothing positive transpired whatsoever once the southward trend began during the early March storm. I agree, if I lived in NYC or south I would still watch this one for a couple inches on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Third storm this winter that will go to suppression. That's a lot for one winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Third storm this winter that will go to suppression. That's a lot for one winter. Eh, happens every year... I'd actually say there might be below average (and um pretty sure we've had more than three this winter get suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Another terrible storm which was modeled to be a big hit for a lot of areas. Disgusting outputs by the models except for the GFS and the Euro to an extent. Chaos theory and predictability beyond hr72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Eh, happens every year... I'd actually say there might be below average (and um pretty sure we've had more than three this winter get suppressed. I'm thinking of the one that crippled Atlanta, the March 3rd storm and this one. There were more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS: JFK is .12" NYC is .07" ACY is .63" PHL is .39" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ukmet came north and brings the .25" line to Brooklyn and NYC is about .15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I agree, if I lived in NYC or south I would still watch this one for a couple inches on the northern fringe. 2-4" CNJ The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS not far from getting a few inches into the city. moreso with last night's ggem. there's still time to trend. for NYC south i'm still holding off on going into "total disgust mode." ...although i'm extremely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS not far from getting a few inches into the city. moreso with last night's ggem. there's still time to trend. for NYC south i'm still holding off on going into "total disgust mode." Ukmet is decent enough for NYC and south. 1"-3" for the boroughs and LI and 3"-6" south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ukmet is decent enough for NYC and south. 1"-3" for the boroughs and LI and 3"-6" south of that. Unless the Euro really comes north today I'm not biting for much of anything. The Euro is very good at this range and was really bad for any snow north of DC at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah dont expect much from this one if anything.. . But let me say this has been a tough month..only a slight move to the north and it will make this drop few inches into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Unless the Euro really comes north today I'm not biting for much of anything. The Euro is very good at this range and was really bad for any snow north of DC at 0z. Euro ensemble mean actually had about an inch for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well, bring on spring ! This one is an inch at most for us.....quite a letdown, but, let's put it behind us Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Upton is still calling for 1-2" from this storm, primarily on Monday. Based on the discussions on this forum, is that kinda bullish at this point? It's still a day and a half away, so they are covering themselves, but this system can still shift northward, not saying it will, but there's still some time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's still a day and a half away, so they are covering themselves, but this system can still shift northward, not saying it will, but there's still some time. WX/PT Thanks for the reply! I'd rather opt for the snowless forecast and bring on Spring, but I know I am in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 High to the north has trended weaker so a trend back north is still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The high to the north isn't the problem. The trough orientation is what's killing us. The models trended towards phasing too much energy with the vorticy over Central Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's very hard to get a storm up here with a trough that positivitly tilted. The only thing I will say is that the second storm needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's very hard to get a storm up here with a trough that positivitly tilted. The only thing I will say is that the second storm needs to be watched. This whole setup is a congealed mess of moving parts. Some of which are still over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The high to the north isn't the problem. The trough orientation is what's killing us. The models trended towards phasing too much energy with the vorticy over Central Mexico. The Northern edge cutoff is most certainly due to the Arctic high/pv providing confluence on the northern edge. The trough orientation is what is making the system move South. In a sense both parties here are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 High to the north has trended weaker so a trend back north is still possible Yes. It's very noticeable from 12z GFS yesterday to 6z GFS today. GFS has been taking very small steps since yesterday afternoon. The low pressure system is now consolidated east of OBX vs. a strung out cold front look, as we saw on March 2nd/3rd. The trough really is the problem now. The confluence alone isn't enough to keep this south of our area. For context, NWS has a forecast high of 30 on Monday, whereas on March 3rd, my location barely made it to 20 during the day. Clearly there is a far less suppressive influence this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes. It's very noticeable from 12z GFS yesterday to 6z GFS today. GFS has been taking very small steps since yesterday afternoon. The low pressure system is now consolidated east of OBX vs. a strung out cold front look, as we saw on March 2nd/3rd. The trough really is the problem now. The confluence alone isn't enough to keep this south of our area. For context, NWS has a forecast high of 30 on Monday, whereas on March 3rd, my location barely made it to 20 during the day. Clearly there is a far less suppressive influence this time around. Given the small steps northward the GFS took, I understand why Upton has kept 1-2" in the forecast for NYC metro. Canadian is similar in QPF outputs with its latest run. If forced to make a forecast right now, I'd say coating to 1" likely for NYC/LI...2-4" possible central Jersey, flurries north of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 based on what I see here, I'm packing the winter stuff up. if it snows nature will take care of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If the GFS has .40 for philly it will only have to tick north 10 miles per cycle for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.