WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well even though I was cautiously pessimistic with this one, especially with the longer range NAM runs, this one hurts. Thought it would at least be our last few inches of the season, but nope Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looked good through yesterday. But now its done. I don't know about that completely, perhaps the 06z gfs was just an off base run, but I'm still interested to see what the 12z runs show. The PV and confluence are considerably weaker with this than they were with the early March threat and the southern stream disturbance is a lot stronger/more consolidated than that poor excuse of a storm with the early March event. There's still nearly 2 days left, which is an eternity when it comes to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I don't know about that completely, perhaps the 06z gfs was just an off base run, but I'm still interested to see what the 12z runs show. The PV and confluence are considerably weaker with this than they were with the early March threat and the southern stream disturbance is a lot stronger/more consolidated than that poor excuse of a storm with the early March event. There's still nearly 2 days left, which is an eternity when it comes to the models. I happen to agree with this. Today might get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS actually bumped north about 75 miles at 06z. Heh. Yep. Somebody on the AccuWeather forum posted the side-by-side snowfall maps for the 0Z and 6Z GFS and it's a pretty large shift northward. For my latitude (central Somerset through northern Middlesex to Staten Island), we go from zilch to a 2-3" event and are only 30 miles from a 5" event, which is what the maps show for roughly the 276/195 latitude in PA/NJ. Given that the 6Z NAM is further south and that the 6Z runs supposedly utilize less input data, who knows what this really means, but I'd rather have 1 of 2 6Z models showing me getting some snow than 0 of 2. Surprised nobody has posted the NWS-Philly snowfall map. I would, but all the cut/paste options for graphics are greyed out for me (don't know why), so I can only include the link, below. Anyway, they greatly cut back on snowfall predictions for Central/North Jersey, from a general 4-6" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to Staten Island to 1-2" for the area between 195/276 in NJ/PA up to about I-78 and from 2-4" north of 78 in NJ/eastern PA to <1" for that area. Even the Philly/South Jersey area was reduced from 4-6" to 2-4", except for far southern NJ (and central DE/Balt/DC), which remains in the 4-6" swath. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Also found their AFD to be interesting... WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A DANGER IN COMPARING AN UPCOMING EVENT TO A RECENT ONE, THERE SEEM TO BE SOME STRIKING SIMILARITIES TO OUR MARCH 3RD SNOWFALL. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO RUN THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. ALSO, SIMILAR TO THE EVENT NEARLY TWO WEEKS AGO THE LIFT SHOULD BE MAINLY DUE TO THE COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING THE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO ITS SOUTH RATHER THAN THE BULK OF THE LIFT COMING FROM THE MILD AIR OVER-RIDING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE FORMER SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN INTO AND OVER OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WE ARE EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR REGION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. BASED ON OUR CURRENT THINKING, WE MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES ON THE DELMARVA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHICH WOULD BE ON THE BORDER OF AN ADVISORY AND A WARNING. IF THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM TREND IN ANY DIRECTION, OUR THINKING IS THAT IT WOULD BE DOWNWARD BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND RECENT EXPERIENCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I happen to agree with this. Today might get very interesting. It'll shift just enough north for precip to get up toms river and thats it, to see two suppressed storms in march and one in mid march especially is downright astounding. I highly doubt and i give it less than a 10% chance of happening that this storm is going to magically slam our area according to todays 12z runs. The confluence from the PV is noticably weaker this time but the problem here is believe is that the PNA is coming down from a peak so that is the mechanism that i think caused this to not properly phase and miss us to the south this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Lol At this point id tend to agree with the grasping for straws image. I mean miracles ( i.e. boxing day blizzard ) can happen under 48 hours but this ship is starting to sail and pick up speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 that is so amazing it is going to snow Im just downright amazed that in mid march another storm is sliding to our south, twice in march is VERY rare. Guess the bad data theory from 12z yesterday wasnt a fluke and all the models woke up ( NAM being late to the party as usual ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Upton's forecast has Manhattan at 50% chance of snow Sun night and Brooklyn at 60% with "light snow accumulations possible" Obviously using the further south, the more snow you MAY get philosophy with this setup. I'm not expecting more then flurries here in southern Brooklyn, IF that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The GFS actually bumped north about 75 miles at 06z. Heh. this is why Upton is not changing their forecast yet - wise move considering there is still enough time before the storm is scheduled to pass through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 09z SREF has us smoking cirrus for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 RAP has actually trended north with the HP for the last 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Im just downright amazed that in mid march another storm is sliding to our south, twice in march is VERY rare. Guess the bad data theory from 12z yesterday wasnt a fluke and all the models woke up ( NAM being late to the party as usual ) My sister posted that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Im just downright amazed that in mid march another storm is sliding to our south, twice in march is VERY rare. Guess the bad data theory from 12z yesterday wasnt a fluke and all the models woke up ( NAM being late to the party as usual ) All the models woke up at 12z yesterday? I don't believe that is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 All the models woke up at 12z yesterday? I don't believe that is accurate. Did you see 12z yesterday? It was like a mass exodus to the mid atlantic and middle finger to us. Think the SREFS and the NAM were the only ones giving us any glimer of hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Did you see 12z yesterday? It was like a mass exodus to the mid atlantic and middle finger to us. Think the SREFS and the NAM were the only ones giving us any glimer of hope.... What I mean is that the GFS and UK weren't biting before 12z yesterday, and the Euro was already trending along with its ensembles. The cmc was still a hit prior to that but had trended south over the prior couple of runs. I don't think the GFS ever showed a big hit for more than one consecutive run. Really, the NAM and Cmc moved way south at 12z. And the NAM wasn't even designed for this type of use, it's a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12z nam digging the shortwave moreso than the 6z. no miracle run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM will be south again, low has shifted 300 miles SE over the past 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM digs the trough to Baja, what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 All good things come to an end. Earlier this winter it was all about last minute party's. After all those last wins it was only a mater of time. Thread the needle gets thrown around here allot and I guess we just ran out of string. If we look at how much bigger of a fail 3/3 was this shouldn't hurt to much. Newsday has an article stating get you're boots ready. These fails aren't doing the meteo community any favors. I'm not completely throwing in the towel for an inch or two around here until after this afternoons euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This run even looks dry for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This run even looks dry for DC Another terrible storm which was modeled to be a big hit for a lot of areas. Disgusting outputs by the models except for the GFS and the Euro to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DC is on the northern edge for moderate accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DC is on the northern edge for moderate accumulations Yep. Could see a slight bump north on future runs, but seeing accumulating snow north of 40 will be difficult. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Once the PV finally lifts out we're going to get a lot of rain as long as the southern jet remains active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yep. Could see a slight bump north on future runs, but seeing accumulating snow north of 40 will be difficult. Sent from my iPhone i can see a couple of inches in SNJ and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DC is on the northern edge for moderate accumulations What a 24 hours of model watching this has been. The pattern isn't bad for our area for snow but our luck has ran out. When was the last time 3 storms miss the area to the south in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 You can forget about the second low, that's headed for Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a 24 hours of model watching this has been. The pattern isn't bad for our area for snow but our luck has ran out. When was the last time 3 storms miss the area to the south in March?March is historically bad for modeling as the wave lengths shorten. That and the amplitude of the PV in areas with poor sampling have been reaking havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nam ticked north with the QPF shield though. Obviously this makes it a very close call for DC, Baltimore and S NJ at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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