IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Disagree, it looks more likely to cutoff the energy in the SW US. Agreed, this is not handling things so far like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It tries to split the energy, sending half of it into the southwest. Should eject enough energy eastward to get a decent sized storm, but don't think it will end up like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Agreed, this is not handling things so far like the GGEM. It's still really energetic with that northern stream fort though. Encouraging sign to see the models in decent agreement with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Disagree, it looks more likely to cutoff the energy in the SW US. Typical Euro bias at play maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Eh if that were to verify it would likely put us in 95-96' territory which is to put it lightly rare air for this area. Im still holding my excitement till friday unless models show these pure porn solutions today and tommorow at 0z I would hold back on excitement until late Friday, maybe even Saturday 0z given the topsy-turviness of the guidance all season. A sheared out and weak shortwave will likely just get crushed as others have said, and a stronger PV could crush the storm south anyway even if it's stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 1004mb over Central AL at 102 hours. Northern stream is pretty energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's still really energetic with that northern stream fort though. Encouraging sign to see the models in decent agreement with that. Agreed, it's still going to produce a substantial system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Really dropping in the PV at hour 108. Broad low over AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 More northern stream interaction. The PV is more elongated, more ridging over Davis Straits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Snow at hour 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 1000mb low nearing OBX at 114 hours. Nice hit for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The end result looks a lot like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Moderate hit hour 120, big broad low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The difference is that the energy is not amplified enough to bring the system up the coast due to it splitting in the southwest US. The weaker and more sheared out energy develops a surface low with moisture and snow up to the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The end result looks a lot like the GGEM. It's much farther south that the GGEM with the heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That a good location at 120 so if less energy hangs back in following runs it can still come west and be cold. I would not want be in the jackpot this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Most of this is going to skirt by just to the south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO brought out a bit more energy, its a nice improvement, so long to go, baby steps...H5 is so close to a really big storm @ 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's much farther south that the GGEM with the heavy precipitation. Yes, bit they agree on a large area of broad low pressure with plenty of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Solid 3"-6" run here through hour 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That a good location at 120 so if less energy hangs back in following runs it can still come west and be cold. Come West? What are you talking about? This isn't a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Love seeing the PV elongated like that and helping to amplify the trough and pull things back westward. That's a terrific look if we can get a bit more energy to eject from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not a bad spot to be in, this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Come West? What are you talking about? This isn't a coastal storm. He is right, the EURO still splits more energy off than GGEM, but less than GFS...it took a nice step, each run has progressively looked better at H5 I see no reason it can't continue.... FYI: Look what is coming out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Love seeing the PV elongated like that and helping to amplify the trough and pull things back westward. That's a terrific look if we can get a bit more energy to eject from the west. Exactly, in fact, I'm very happy where we stand here...its so close to being a much stronger storm, I'd rather it look like this than it being borderline too far north at this range. Especially in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Even though the Euro verbatim shows a few inches of snow into Upstate NY verbatim we'd probably see next to nothing. Plenty of dry air to the north of us and the steadier precipitation barely makes it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Love seeing the PV elongated like that and helping to amplify the trough and pull things back westward. That's a terrific look if we can get a bit more energy to eject from the west. The 12z Euro looks very good aloft to me by 120hr. We don't need all that southern stream energy for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's much farther south that the GGEM with the heavy precipitation. Visions of last week are dancing in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 He is right, the EURO still splits more energy off than GGEM, but less than GFS...it took a nice step, each run has progressively looked better at H5 I see no reason it can't continue.... FYI: Look what is coming out west. I'd rather not have that show up, it's going to end up pushing the first system out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO brought out a bit more energy, its a nice improvement, so long to go, baby steps...H5 is so close to a really big storm @ 120 hours... Yea, EURO was close to showing a monster. Hope its just the models bias of hanging back energy and will start showing stronger solutions in future runs. Overall a good run. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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