MJO812 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The Euro wasnt too enthused with this storm. It's funny how we all thought at one point that the models were trending towards a monster solution like the ggem had. Too many shifts in the models this winter. Terrible job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 why ? please explain Because the radar looks crazy, but then it heads due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's funny is that the media never turned this into a big deal. It is only a big deal to us. The general public will never know "what could have been !" Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The Euro wasnt too enthused with this storm. It's funny how we all thought at one point that the models were trending towards a monster solution like the ggem had. Too many shifts in the models this winter. Terrible job If you ignore the few crazy GGEM runs and the recent NAM crap runs, the models did pretty well overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well here is the good news: if the 1 in, oh say, 25 shot of this coming back north is to happen, the globals couldn't give two shts what the NAM did a few hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's funny is that the media never turned this into a big deal. It is only a big deal to us. The general public will never know "what could have been !" Lol Sent from my iPhone media is still stinging from the bust 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Because the radar looks crazy, but then it heads due east thats easy to explain its being stepped on and blocked by the PV - arctic high etc etc - all the way across - only thing that will allow this to sneek up the coast at the last minute is if that PV relaxes in time and starts moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a beautiful look...hard to imagine that it's all going to escape to the right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Definitely not a good trend, but this run still brings the 0.5" line almost to Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The simulated radar is like 2/6/10 on the 4k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What a beautiful look...hard to imagine that it's all going to escape to the right... man that does look like a slightly farther south version of feb 2010 storm with crazy cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 thats easy to explain its being stepped on and blocked by the PV - arctic high etc etc - all the way across - only thing that will allow this to sneek up the coast at the last minute is if that PV relaxes in time and starts moving north This is what I see, and have been seeing on the cmc and now the Nam as they move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The simulated radar is like 2/6/10 on the 4k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 man that does look like a slightly farther south version of feb 2010 storm with crazy cutoff That evil event...only thing that made that weekend easier to swallow was watching my HS hoops team win an exciting game over our rivals on their court that Friday night. Can't tell you how annoying the sharp cutoff's been back here the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If weenies are being honest with themselves...the book closed on this one when both the euro and its ensembles went south again this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What's funny is that the media never turned this into a big deal. It is only a big deal to us. The general public will never know "what could have been !" Lol Sent from my iPhone Always be weary of multiple waves. The chances of two waves hitting us with both significant snow is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The March of the NAM (06z, 12z, 18z, 00z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Despite the 4k NAM showing one 3 hour panel with widespread snow over the region, the total QPF north of I-78 is 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Despite the 4k NAM showing one 3 hour panel with widespread snow over the region, the total QPF north of I-78 is 0.00" I think we could still get 3 times that amount Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The other problem that is present in this setup that has plagued us all winter:+NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think we could still get 3 times that amount Sent from my iPhone Don't be conservative, tell us what you really think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hmm...according to the text output, KJFK actually gets 0.16" of QPF with this NAM run, with 0.06" at KLGA, 0.12" at KEWR, and 0.52" at KBLM. Better than nothing, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Anything north of NYC is rain showers tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Really not even that close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hmm...according to the text output, KJFK actually gets 0.16" of QPF with this NAM run, with 0.06" at KLGA, 0.12" at KEWR, and 0.52" at KBLM. Better than nothing, I suppose.remember to always cut in half NAM's qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 When the south trends began for the early March storm, each subsequent model suite was more and more suppressed. Will be interesting to see if this happens with this system or, instead, it remains more or less as is or even begins to bump back north. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 When the south trends began for the early March storm, each subsequent model suite was more and more suppressed. Will be interesting to see if this happens with this system or, instead, it remains more or less as is or even begins to bump back north. Any thoughts on this? Unfortunately I believe that once again the confluence is too strong to allow this to come much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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