REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its far from dead, too many variables in play. Absolutely, but by tonight and 12z tommorow the latest we should start to see a general consensus of what to expect from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Question, any remember what the NAM was in this range for the beginning of March bust? I think it was south the whole time, any one remember? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Question, any remember what the NAM was in this range for the beginning of March bust? I think it was south the whole time, any one remember? Sent from my iPad Way south I believe, it creeped north just before all the guidance went south, I think it had a run or two where it was a hit before the major south shift happened. There was concern by myself and others about the NAM being suppressed...its not a lock but in general 7-8 out of 10 times when the NAM is not amped beyond 60-66 hours vs. other guidance it means the other models are too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Way south I believe, it creeped north just before all the guidance went south, I think it had a run or two where it was a hit before the major south shift happened. And now it's starting and consistently showing well north. I believe the nam started the south dive, then all models followed. Something to note? Or just the nam being the nam? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 And now it's starting and consistently showing well north. I believe the nam started the south dive, then all models followed. Something to note? Or just the nam being the nam? Sent from my iPad If I remember right all of the models pretty much went south in a 2 run span except the GGEM which was always a miss from the start...I think the 12Z GFS was actually the first run to go south, the 12Z Euro then ticked south and the 18Z NAM then came in way suppressed but even the 12Z NAM was not all that far north, it was suspiciously similar to the GFS...when the GFS/NAM are similar at 72-84 hours it can often mean both are wrong from what I've found....this goes well with the theory if the NavGEM is similar to the GFS/GEM/Euro at Day 4-6 it often means those 3 models are nowhere close to the eventual solution since the NavGEM rarely scores a lone wolf win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hmmm, let's see what 00z has for us, thanks buddy! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Will have a better idea tonight and especially by 12z SAT. I think will continue to see some changes. Hopefully it comes back north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREFS should be out ? Are they an hour late because of DST or are they south ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREFS should be out ? Are they an hour late because of DST or are they south ? LOL Hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hour later Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 If I remember right all of the models pretty much went south in a 2 run span except the GGEM which was always a miss from the start...I think the 12Z GFS was actually the first run to go south, the 12Z Euro then ticked south and the 18Z NAM then came in way suppressed but even the 12Z NAM was not all that far north, it was suspiciously similar to the GFS...when the GFS/NAM are similar at 72-84 hours it can often mean both are wrong from what I've found....this goes well with the theory if the NavGEM is similar to the GFS/GEM/Euro at Day 4-6 it often means those 3 models are nowhere close to the eventual solution since the NavGEM rarely scores a lone wolf win. I recall a gradual unrelenting shift south within 72 hours up until the event. It was different from today's shift in that it was more gradual i.e. we didn't go from a solid hit to a miss/graze on most models over a 12 hr time period, as we saw today. The good news here is that our expectations have already been lowered dramatically, which means going forward it won't take much for us to begin feeling better about this. Personally I don't see this going any further south than the 18z GFS. With respect to the march 2/3 storm, the PV looks weaker and the timing more favorable. The PV will be moving away as the storm approaches, whereas, the PV was increasing its influence as the storm moved in for the march 2/3 storm. The NAO is far less positive as well, indicating this has a better shot at making it further up the coast, before heading ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREF's look wetter to me and further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 2 different sref model analysis lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREF's look wetter to me and further NW. Definitely not, further south and drier. The setup at H5 is not nearly as good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREF's look wetter to me and further NW. Don't look at the SREFS Classic. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 SREF looks about the same. A tick south, and I mean a TICK -- that's all. No significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The SREF's look wetter to me and further NW. yeah, slightly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Definitely not, further south and drier.You need to look at hour 78. It's actually nearly the same as previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 My mistake was looking at the wrong hours. Overall its similar to the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Definitely not, further south and drier. The setup at H5 is not nearly as good either.You need to stop being so definitive. If it's drier it's very slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 You need to look at hour 78. It's actually nearly the same as previous run I looked at all the panels, and beyond the precip as well this run is not as good as 15z. It's not awful and still better than some of the other guidance. I feel stupid even discussing the SREFs at 78h anyway, probably the most volatile guidance out there, they'll change plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well that was encouraging. 0.5" plus contour right over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I looked at all the panels, and beyond the precip as well this run is not as good as 15z. It's not awful and still better than some of the other guidance. I feel stupid even discussing the SREFs at 78h anyway, probably the most volatile guidance out there, they'll change plenty of times.It probably just means that a few more members ticked south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 There is no way that is coming north there will go directly east.once it gets between the Mason Dixon Line and the PA Turnpike Book It If you are referring to the center of the storm systems projected path then it will produce decent results for phl, kpne and possibly kttn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The individual members that make up the SREF mean often change so drastically from run to run, I can only imagine the chaos that would be if they were like the GFS. The ARW members in particular which are usually way amped when way south at 15z, I'm curious to see what they did here on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The .50 band shifted south from Rt. 80 to Rt. 78. Overall, looks like about a 20 mile south shift with the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 To me, the only reason to look at the SREF at this range is to determine trends, and so far the trend here continues south. It is just behind all the other models that are within their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The .50 band shifted south from Rt. 80 to Rt. 78. Overall, looks like about a 20 mile south shift with the whole thing. that isnt a real shift, just noise. basically looks similar to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM caving, it's digging much further SW. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 SREF mean looks like it is being massively skewed by the NMB members. NMB mean is 1+, ARW and NMM are .2-.3 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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