GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Where do you get the RGEM to 54hrs? EDIT i see someone posted it already. Regardless, I would expect it to be similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just say 2-4, 4-6, etc... The way you've written it here accounts for only 45% of the pdf. Also way too early for any kind of final call, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FINAL CALL : 12" or greater : 2% chance 10" or greater : 5% chance 8" or greater : 10% chance 6" or greater : 15% chance 4" or greater : 23% chance 2" or greater : 35% chance Under 2" : 10% chance Sent from my iPhone So let's see...2" or greater = 35% chance and under 2" = 10% chance. So, I can only assume there is a 55% chance of the world ending before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 FINAL CALL : 12" or greater : 2% chance 10" or greater : 5% chance 8" or greater : 10% chance 6" or greater : 15% chance 4" or greater : 23% chance 2" or greater : 35% chance Under 2" : 10% chance Sent from my iPhone 0-12"+. EXCELLENT forecast! Back to the topic, weren't we all just yesterday talking about how bad the 18z suites are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The RGEM is not as good as the NAM for snow lover, let me draw it out for ya; The RGEM has a more positively tilted trough....Also note the base of the trough is in S Texas on the NAM & in Mexico in the RGEM image hosting 30 mb free photo hosting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So let's see...2" or greater = 35% chance and under 2" = 10% chance. So, I can only assume there is a 55% chance of the world ending before the storm. Exactly, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Any word on the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Actually looks better with the 2nd wave, brings maybe .1-.2 up here on Tuesday night. First wave is basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And the focus shifts to the 2nd wave on Tuesday night. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north. Any reasoning behind this, or just because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And the focus shifts to the 2nd wave on Tuesday night. LOL.So reminiscent of 2/16/03 with the two waves that ended up as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north. I agree - the PV to the north is progged to be slightly weaker then the 3/2 event so there is a little wiggle room to be fringed with clouds and some snow showers here - I would suspect all talk of any accumulations in tomorrow mornings NWS forecast in the metro will be shelved ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It actually held back the 2nd low and then brings it up the coast, bringing an apparent threat on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Any reasoning behind this, or just because? Most of the other models shifted south because of the better sampling that was done at the 12z model runs. The models handled the energy differently, and most likely the NAM will continue to correct as it gets into it's range. Even the ensembles of the EURO and GFS agree with the shift south. For those who still think this will be a snowstorm, needs to rethink that. EARLY EARLY Call: NYC: coating-1inch on the grassy surfaces PHL: 1-3 on grassy surfaces DC: 3-5 Grassy Surfaces More further south I think this will continue to move further south with the runs. Don't listen to me, I am just talk right now, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So reminiscent of 2/16/03 with the two waves that ended up as one. PD II ???? so you are saying the results will be similar ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And to think people were claiming this looked like the PD II storm, it did, big word DID, but to even talk about that post 4 days is just irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Most of the other models shifted south because of the better sampling that was done at the 12z model runs. The models handled the energy differently, and most likely the NAM will continue to correct as it gets into it's range. Even the ensembles of the EURO and GFS agree with the shift south. For those who still think this will be a snowstorm, needs to rethink that. EARLY EARLY Call: NYC: coating-1inch on the grassy surfaces PHL: 1-3 on grassy surfaces DC: 3-5 Grassy Surfaces More further south I think this will continue to move further south with the runs. Don't listen to me, I am just talk right now, but something to keep an eye on. I understand why you think the storm will be south, and I understand that the 12z models are well south of previous runs. What I dont understand is why you think it is going to keep coming south, south, south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 PD II ???? so you are saying the results will be similar ?not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The RGEM is not as good as the NAM for snow lover, let me draw it out for ya; The RGEM has a more positively tilted trough....Also note the base of the trough is in S Texas on the NAM & in Mexico in the RGEM image hosting 30 mb free photo hosting There is no way that is coming north there will go directly east.once it gets between the Mason Dixon Line and the PA Turnpike Book It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And to think people were claiming this looked like the PD II storm, it did, big word DID, but to even talk about that post 4 days is just irresponsible. People aren't forecasting weather here, it is a message board. No one owes anyone any level of responsibility here. With that being said, this storm has never really resembled PDII in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A couple of the models runs in a way resembled it the upper air maps, and even some surface maps. But its say to say that will not be happening, not even close. I would not like to be a snowlover in NYC right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 very bullish percentages from NCEP. NYC south 20% 12"+, 25% 8"+, 50-60% 4"+, 60-70% 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GEFS is just being skewed by two members that produce a decent coastal low with the 2nd piece on Tuesday night. 10 of the 12 don't do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GEFS is just being skewed by two members that produce a decent coastal low with the 2nd piece on Tuesday night. 10 of the 12 don't do this. Yeah folks, this one is looking dead. This is why we can't get to excited over models past 48 hours really. But who cares, its been great this winter, Bring on Warm temps, if that ever comes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So let's see...2" or greater = 35% chance and under 2" = 10% chance. So, I can only assume there is a 55% chance of the world ending before the storm. post of the year candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its far from dead, too many variables in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wait, didn't mike the hobbyist this was for sure a 15-20" inch storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is there a possobility the focus goes back to the second piece. Ala dgex (not that extreme) and sone of this mornings euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wait, didn't mike the hobbyist this was for sure a 15-20" inch storm??? I thought it was a good starting point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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