Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Even higher 700mb omega at 66hr over much the area. NAM will be wet. Of course, not buying yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the NAM, and it's trended south some...did that with the 3/3 system, took baby steps south each run. Need this to end at the 0z runs with fresh data or most are done The NAM usually makes some wild swings in this range. I'm mildly enthused that it dug further SW but still managed to produce a pretty big bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run is a great example of what can happen if the trough can still escape east rather than diving into Mexico hook, line and sinker like the globals did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you were looking for a reason to stay up for the 00z runs you just found it Dont t bother go to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM usually makes some wild swings in this range. I'm mildly enthused that it dug further SW but still managed to produce a pretty big bomb. This is actually what I find discouraging, and (one of the many reasons) I dont take the NAM solution seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 1"+ contour is in nearly the exact same spot as 12z. Just south of NYC, barely. A bit drier north of the area due to a sharper cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you were looking for a reason to stay up for the 00z runs you just found it Because of what the 18z NAM did in the weenie range? GEFS And EURO ensembles are not good, GGEM was south. Basically, because the NAM, worthless model showed this.......comon now Yanks. I ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS enjoy your input, but really bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is actually what I find discouraging, and (one of the many reasons) I dont take the NAM solution seriously. EXACTLY-makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup, MECS. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run trending south just means that the NAM is out to lunch even more than we think. The fact that nearly ever other model shifted south and quickly, means that the other models caught on quicker, most likely Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is actually what I find discouraging, and (one of the many reasons) I dont take the NAM solution seriously. To me it says that a middle of the road solution is still on the table. Something that spits some of the energy SW but still ejects the trough eastward fast enough to deliver a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Because of what the 18z NAM did in the weenie range? GEFS And EURO ensembles are not good, GGEM was south. Basically, because the NAM, worthless model showed this.......comon now Yanks. I ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS enjoy your input, but really bro I don't need you to tell me what the other models did. Nobody here is saying that the NAM is right, but I'll be watching this until every model is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It clearly trended towards the other models with respect to digging the energy in the southwest. I agree that it could signal that the other models have reached their southern goalpost, and that a moderate event is still on the table for all but northern zones...but more likely, it is just on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To me it says that a middle of the road solution is still on the table. Something that spits some of the energy SW but still ejects the trough eastward fast enough to deliver a good hit. fair point, and I do think there is a way for this to trend for a decent event up to around NYC. For obvious reasons, I'd feel a lot better about that possibility if the NAM had some support (as of now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We'll never know but it looks like the southern trailing energy was in a decent spot for us this run. Snows back into eastern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM has snow in the teens for the second half of the event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Because of what the 18z NAM did in the weenie range? GEFS And EURO ensembles are not good, GGEM was south. Basically, because the NAM, worthless model showed this.......comon now Yanks. I ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS enjoy your input, but really bro the NAM is not a worthless model, the problem is people not understanding its strengths and weaknesses. For the sunday night/monday event, it is still out of its best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Plus we all know that it's very rare for these things to end up exactly as modeled at day 3. The fact that the models seem to be moving towards more of a consensus actually makes me think we're still way off. We never get this good of agreement unless it's a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the NAM is not a worthless model, the problem is people not understanding its strengths and weaknesses. For the sunday night/monday event, it is still out of its best range. At this range, and with all the other models drastically further south, yes, yes right now it is worthless, unless you are a snow lover and hug this run and say it is completely right, even though its not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At hour 60 the 4k NAM has moderate snow from the CT/MA border south with heavy banding over Central NJ and southern PA. Looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At this range, and with all the other models drastically further south, yes, yes right now it is worthless, unless you are a snow lover and hug this run and say it is completely right, even though its not even close. To say that the NAM is a completely useless model is ridiculous. It's actually ignorant. It has nailed some big events before, such as 2/6/10. Again, nobody is saying that the NAM verbatim is correct, but I'm going to go out and say that the GFS and Euro are probably not exactly correct either. And the GGEM? The ensemble mean was a good bit wetter than the OP. Plus going from HECS to flurries in one run is not exactly great in terms of verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the NAM, and it's trended south some...did that with the 3/3 system, took baby steps south each run. Need this to end at the 0z runs with fresh data or most are done If I remember right the nam was largely a miss from the get go on that event...although it did cine around a bit eventually it never showed it's usual amped bias beyond 60 hours either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If I remember right the nam was largely a miss from the get go on that event...although it did cine around a bit eventually it never showed it's usual amped bias beyond 60 hours either. You're correct, the NAM was never enthusiastic about that event. I remember looking at the long range version and being troubled by the lack of precip that it was spitting out for a model that is typically too amped up at day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The precip shield on the 18z NAM is so much less than other runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z NAM began to slowly trend towards the other models, thats the only thing I got out of it. By 00z it will be even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the NAM is not a worthless model, the problem is people not understanding its strengths and weaknesses. For the sunday night/monday event, it is still out of its best range. Sorry but its an 84 hour model and now we are approaching its best range. Ideally by tonight it will be in its very best range. But obviously if its the ONLY model then its wait till next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's good that the low can be pretty far south and you can still get good snows, we'll see if the gfs can show something. The Nam was also slower, I wonder if that could play a huge role if the storm ends up slower than currently modeled as the slower it is the more likely it would move further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The precip shield on the 18z NAM is so much less than other runs Sent from my iPhone It's actually about the same, just a hair south. We call that noise. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sorry but its an 84 hour model and now we are approaching its best range. Ideally by tonight it will be in its very best range. But obviously if its the ONLY model then its wait till next winter This is simply not true, the NAM is not in its best range 48+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is simply not true, the NAM is not in its best range 48+ hours out. How has he not been post restricted yet? We really need stronger moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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