Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 T minus 90 seconds until YanksFan compares this system to Presidents Day Edit: I was a little slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wow, that's picture perfect for snow here. This is a favorable setup if the energy ejects in one piece. The thermal gradient will be forced south by the compressing height field to the north and (as I mentioned above, if the energy ejects in one piece) the slug of moisture will push northward from the Arklatex and force a surface low to develop in the TN Valley which almost assures we get precipitation here regardless of whether it becomes a "big" event or not. The surface low can scoot eastward and we can still get a moderate event. If it comes north (maybe even a bit north of the CMC position) then we're talking big numbers. But this all hedges on things remaining consolidated and the energy in the Pac which is low confidence and leaves me wondering if the models are playing games with us again. They have been terrible with Pac energy and changing their forecasts completely once it comes onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I dig the placement of the surface high to the north. Pump that up a bit to lock in frozen prospects and enhance the thermal gradient for maximized liquid and I'm happy as a clam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Considering the GGEM has been stellar recently it probably means that we're in for a failure with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This current system looks like PDII also if I spin around 6 times and tilt my head at a 180 degree angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This current system looks like PDII also if I spin around 6 times and tilt my head at a 180 degree angle. Maybe I shouldn't have downed that bottle of Jack before I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This current system looks like PDII also if I spin around 6 times and tilt my head at a 180 degree angle. If LORD EARTHLIGHT thinks it looks like PDII it should be duly noted at the very least "in earthlight we trust" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Total QPF on the 12z GGEM is ~1.50" for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This is a favorable setup if the energy ejects in one piece. The thermal gradient will be forced south by the compressing height field to the north and (as I mentioned above, if the energy ejects in one piece) the slug of moisture will push northward from the Arklatex and force a surface low to develop in the TN Valley which almost assures we get precipitation here regardless of whether it becomes a "big" event or not. The surface low can scoot eastward and we can still get a moderate event. If it comes north (maybe even a bit north of the CMC position) then we're talking big numbers. But this all hedges on things remaining consolidated and the energy in the Pac which is low confidence and leaves me wondering if the models are playing games with us again. They have been terrible with Pac energy and changing their forecasts completely once it comes onshore. The trend this season has been for sheared out/weak generally with these pieces of energy too which leaves me skeptical. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Total QPF on the 12z GGEM is ~1.50" for this event. 1.50 QPF equating to feet of snow? Id imagine that would be great ratios then in mid march. Just yanking your chain buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 1.50 QPF equating to feet of snow? Id imagine that would be great ratios then in mid march. Just yanking your chain buddy Not going to speculate about snow totals right now. Let's see what the Euro shows shortly. Yes I'm ready to sound the alert tones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just about anyone from the mass pike south would lock in that solution right now. We aren't in weenie range anymore either, however as it has been pointed out, things have started to head south (no pun intended) after the energy comes on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if 12z GGEM verifies.. I'm pretty sure everyone on this board will be happy and be ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z UKMET looks similar to the 12z GFS. It leaves a cut-off low behind over Texas and Mexico: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 JMA looks good @ 72 hours ji... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not going to speculate about snow totals right now. Let's see what the Euro shows shortly. Yes I'm ready to sound the alert tones. I think we should temper any excitement for now. These past two storms have trended poorly for us under 100 hours. I'm waiting till friday afternoons 12z before I fully jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM stays cold throughout the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 My impression of the GGEM this winter is that it has been wildly inconsistent and prone to extreme solutions followed by over-corrections, but what do I know? Here's hoping the Euro throws the dogs a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 My impression of the GGEM this winter is that it has been wildly inconsistent and prone to extreme solutions followed by over-corrections, but what do I know? Here's hoping the Euro throws the dogs a weenie. But what model(s) have been consistent throughout the entire winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I would temper any excitement until the weekend TBH but the setup looks really good, great timing with the arctic air coming south and the PNA peaks during this storm before going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Let's all remember that we've been in this position twice in the past few weeks. Models show a foot or more of snow, and in reality we get 0". It's not that it can't happen, but it is highly unlikely. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I would temper any excitement until the weekend TBH but the setup looks really good, great timing with the arctic air coming south and the PNA peaks during this storm before going negative. Setup almost looks classic for atleast a low end KU. thats whats worrisome however, many times this winter we've seen these strong signals there only to get substantially less enthusiastic as we get closer. Therefore, i agree lets wait till friday to see what we'll be up against and the pacific sampling really hasnt been stellar this year either as john said so that factors into this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Alright, EURO out to 30 hours, hopefully the calm before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Setup almost looks classic for atleast a low end KU. thats whats worrisome however, many times this winter we've seen these strong signals there only to get substantially less enthusiastic as we get closer. Therefore, i agree lets wait till friday to see what we'll be up against and the pacific sampling really hasnt been stellar this year either as john said so that factors into this as well When you say set up, what do you mean? Depends on what model you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 When you say set up, what do you mean? Depends on what model you're looking at. The pornographic GGEM run john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO looks better with the energy down south so far, so far it looks identical to the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The pornographic GGEM run john That's why I'm feeling more confidence with this storm. The canadian has been riding the hot hand lately. Patience everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That's why I'm feeling more confidence with this storm. The canadian has been riding the hot hand lately. Patience everybody. Eh if that were to verify it would likely put us in 95-96' territory which is to put it lightly rare air for this area. Im still holding my excitement till friday unless models show these pure porn solutions today and tommorow at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EURO looks better with the energy down south so far, so far it looks identical to the CMC Disagree, it looks more likely to cutoff the energy in the SW US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't think the Euro is going to look as good as the GGEM. Seems to be on a course to be a compromise between the GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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