JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 if the ridge doesnt roll over we could still be OK....hopelessly optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18z NAM does appear to be sending more energy SW than 12z but 12z split this energy and was able to get enough separation to phase east. Nam was already trending towards the split solution at 12z and now more so, it only came up with a "snowy" solution because it went nuts with the WAA associated with the front runner wave. That was more then likely a typical NAM error where it goes crazy with a particular feature and over amps it. I said in the PA thread I would put the 12z NAM in the camp with a weaker solution even before I saw the rest of the 12z go to crap because it was splitting the energy and I did not believe how it still managed to put down an inch of qpf into our area without any real upper level support. Our only hope is the models are in error splitting so much energy and tonight or tomorrow they begin to trend back towards a more consolidated h5 solution. Short of this, we are done for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A lot of those small nuisances are just noise, it's too bad that this is such a fragile setup that we can't afford to not have everything in perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Everything is more amped this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At hour 42 the low is actually over the Arkansas/MO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This still looks nothing like the GFS or the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SLP placement looks the same to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At the surface it looks north and more potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run is actually comparable to the 06z NAM which shoved a lot of the energy north, which was better for us. Although that run was just off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 PV actually is hurting us, this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As much as I hate to say it as I was really hoping for a major winter storm to close out winter, barring any significant shifts back north on the 00z runs I think this threat is pretty much finished. Hopefully things turn around at 00z but I am not very optimistic. Pretty incredible on the south shift with the models today whether it is rare or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's going to roll that last piece of energy into the base of the trough and that should make for one heck of a system. Regardless as to whether or not it hits our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SLP placement is about the same as 12z, maybe a tick south, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM is really, really trying. the front side of the trough is becoming energized again as the energy rotates around the base. Snow on the doorstep of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol terrible analysis. I'm watching this quickly as I'm busy and half are saying its terrible and half are saying more amped and held serve LOL Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nice and cold, snow at PHL, HR60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM is really, really trying. the front side of the trough is becoming energized again as the energy rotates around the base. Snow on the doorstep of Philly Hour 60 Sim has moderate to heavy snow into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hour 60 snow on the doorstep of NYC, looking very similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hour 60 snow on the doorstep of NYC, looking very similar to 12z. It's already into the area. You're looking at previous 6 hours precip. Here's actual Sim: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Interesting thing is that we have another piece of vorticy up near the boot heel of Missouri. If we could get that to pinch off it would force everything north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's already into the area. You're looking at previous 6 hour precip. Here's actual Sim: Alright, I don't have those graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z NAM 700mb VVs is high from NYC south at 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 63: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the NAM, and it's trended south some...did that with the 3/3 system, took baby steps south each run. Need this to end at the 0z runs with fresh data or most are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At this point it disagrees with every other piece of guidance and should be regarded as eye candy, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you were looking for a reason to stay up for the 00z runs you just found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Most likely a lowend MECS on this run for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM'd.... keeping hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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