WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Agreed, there's always usually a few that hold out so it seems a bit suspect to me. Well....either it means they all caught onto something and are correct or are all wrong. All or nothibg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z NAM initialized with 90% of the northern energy onshore, by hour 15 it's over southern Montana, pretty much the same as previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Our only hope now is perhaps the models ingested some bad data. Very unusual for such a sudden shift with the models. Oh well, onto the 18z and 00z suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well....either it means they all caught onto something and are correct or are all wrong. All or nothibg Sent from my iPhone If they all end up being correct on this dramatic change its another BDB outcome with the models. This has me holding on as to if this is the final solution or not, these situation occur rarely where all agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My guess is NAM will show flurries like every other model, or bury us and draw most of us back in for an hour before the GFS shows sunny skies Monday. What's worse is that this is likely our last threat to follow until November, it will be a long 8 months off, but it's been fun, yes the last 5 weeks have been brutal with many teases but it's been a fun year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Any guesses for 21z? - 0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Absolutely nobody should be surprised by this. As I said yesterday, last storm shifted 500 miles south 48hrs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Absolutely nobody should be surprised by this. As I said yesterday, last storm shifted 500 miles south 48hrs before. Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's unbelievable how much differently the 18z NAM is handling things versus the GFS/GGEM/EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At hour 18 the northern vort is over southern Montana and northern Wyoming. As long as it makes it to extreme SW South Dakota it will have handled things similarly to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Absolutely nobody should be surprised by this. As I said yesterday, last storm shifted 500 miles south 48hrs before. The last storm (Wednesday) went way north. The early March storm went way south..the early February storm came way north. Not sure this storm will behave like any of our previous storms (or non storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Which is simply amazing that over 30 years ago models were doing the same thing they are now in 2014. You would have thought there would be a supermodel by now that is basically right now, but we will have to wait on that. The variable in the equation that has changed dramatically over the past 30 years is the access by the public to the runs. They are now in the hands of hobbyists, potential mets, and, those who get a buzz from severe weather. The real problem is one that every trial lawyer and doctor confronts daily--as well as other professionals--the very human tendency to see in the evidence or data either what one wishes to see or fears to see. There appear to be only a handful of people on this forum who can look at runs three or four days out with anything close to objectivity without superimposing their desire to see a major event develop. I'm very familiar with the tendency. As a young pilot who wanted to fly every day, I would get a briefing from a met and pummel him with questions like I ws cross-examining him if he gave me a briefing that suggested the airplane would have to stay in the hanger. If I requested a briefing even 36 hours out, the best of them, would gently suggest I wait until at least the night before. I don't think one of them ever even speculated about the parameters of the weather three days out. Shakespeare nailed it: "The fault is not in the stars…but in ourselves." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's unbelievable how much differently the 18z NAM is handling things versus the GFS/GGEM/EURO And not very far out into its run either. But...the NAM sucks, for what we are trying to use it for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just by the way things are looking even at hour 21 I would be very surprised if it caved fully this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At hour 18 the northern vort is over southern Montana and northern Wyoming. As long as it makes it to extreme SW South Dakota it will have handled things similarly to last run. 18z is clearly digging southwest a bit more then the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The northern vorticy might actually be even further east this run than 12z. Now well into the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 18z is clearly digging southwest a bit more then the 12z run. I disagree, maybe I'm wrong but it's not what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z Euro Ens mean has .10" line qpf over Central NJ and Long Island at 72hr. But it's south/drier than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And not very far out into its run either. But...the NAM sucks, for what we are trying to use it for. Still worth seeing if it holds serve or caves to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Absolutely nobody should be surprised by this. As I said yesterday, last storm shifted 500 miles south 48hrs before. I'm sick of these posts today (don't mean to call you out in specific). The last storm has absolutely nothing to do with this one. So it's time to stop talking like it has some magical effect on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Total QPF for NYC on the 09z SREF mean was 1.50"+ Total QPF for NYC on the 15z SREF mean is 0.50"+. thats because they are useless in that time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18z NAM does appear to be sending more energy SW than 12z but 12z split this energy and was able to get enough separation to phase east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 18z NAM does appear to be sending more energy SW than 12z but 12z split this energy and was able to get enough separation to phase east. Yeah it is trending towards the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Cleary digging the sw side of the trough much more through hour 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People hoping for the NAM to hold serve should close their browsers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its indeed the first time I see all the models moving into one direction from one run to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People hoping for the NAM to hold serve should close their browsers now. Take a look at the 500mb winds and compare to 12z, much less interaction, slower phasing occurring this run. We still have all of the runs tomorrow but yeah, I would think 1-3" is probably a good forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Even with the changes I'm pretty certain this will be north of the globals. Still a decent amount of energy that's being ejected east and phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.