SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Many don't care to properly analyze and see what caused things to happen the way they happened, they only see the final result. This is not the same scenario from the early March storm. While I share plenty of pessimism for this event, (it's mostly sarcastic) I'm trying to understand why things have shifted the way they did and why it may or may not be the final result. When I see models shifting gradually southward from run to run, then that's a proper trend. When you see models amping things up run by run, as in the case of our January and early February storms, then that's a proper trend. When you see all the models go from huge hit to nothing in one run, then you ought to be very cautious especially if there's been continuity prior to that "nothing" run. Just remember previous times where the models constantly showed no hit to no hit and then all of the sudden for one run they showed a big hit and everyone hopped on board, that's not a trend that's a blip so I'm not convinced this is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Small differences from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 HM from the mid-atlantic thread, a reminder that this storm isn't the same as two weeks ago: The 12z runs made some subtle long wave changes that affected the way our s/w manifests. Initially, you'll look at the models and say "more energy is hanging back/split off" and really that would be a fine analysis. The issue here is that the subtle changes in the western ridge affects the jet across the northern-tier. Between this process and the slower exit of the PV (which by itself wouldn't be a big deal...but it is a killer in combination with broadening western ridge), the flow speeds up, reducing partial phasing of s/w. Here's the good news before you start to compare how amazingly annoying that it was the 12z runs 2Fridays ago that also started to shift the storm: that 3/3 system was being punished by a much more wicked PV and lobe dropping down from Ontario. In fact, it pushed in considerable dry and cold air advection throughout the precipitation shield, reducing accumulating snow to just the convergence zones post-initial thump WAA. In this case, despite the 12z shifts, we are still seeing frontogenetic forcing within general WAA across MA. This means, old rules apply about "edge of QPF shield" since that is conveniently placed along the 850mb deformation zone. Yes, and what concerns me is that this could end up being fantastic for South Jersey again, and a miss for us. That is what the Euro and its control run have been showing for many runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 vortex is further south, southern energy more sheared out. game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup, no help from the Euro this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro looks significantly worse than its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Disastrous. Everything that we wanted to avoid is coming to pass on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes, and what concerns me is that this could end up being fantastic for South Jersey again, and a miss for us. That is what the Euro and its control run have been showing for many runs now. I doubt it ends up fantastic for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 vortex is further south, southern energy more sheared out. game over I'm curious to know what your thoughts are when we are the edge of actually getting a storm..? Are you still nay-saying it then, too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes, and what concerns me is that this could end up being fantastic for South Jersey again, and a miss for us. That is what the Euro and its control run have been showing for many runs now. I don't think it would be fantastic for anyone if it's crushed south and the energy is sheared out to nothing. The PV's dry air would eat up the snow where it's cold enough. There might be a narrow band of significant accums but the really heavy snow would occur if the storm was stronger and could transport more Gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Barring a change at 0z, that's a wrap. Oh well. Shows how tough it is to get over 60 inches in NYC...10-11 saw nothing after 2/3 or so and this year so far, nothing after 2/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm curious to know what your thoughts are when we are the edge of actually getting a storm..? Are you still nay-saying it then, too?? I think hes being realistic. Moreover, he is probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro looks significantly worse than its 00z run Light snow up to Philly hour 66, we might get brushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Disastrous. Everything that we wanted to avoid is coming to pass on this run. Honestly, just end this constant teaser pattern. If a massive ridge was to pop up overhead tomorrow and give us a definite end to this, I'd be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm curious to know what your thoughts are when we are the edge of actually getting a storm..? Are you still nay-saying it then, too?? He missed his calling. He should have been a motivational speaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Light snow hour 72, somewhat looks like the 12z GGEM ensemble mean. This is going to come in just wet enough to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think hes being realistic. Moreover, he is probably right. Without a massive turnaround at 0z, it's over. Everything should be on the playing field by then and well sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its pretty impressive how drastic things can shift once energy does get over land to be better sampled. This is a really amazing example of that (should today's runs end up verifying). I also think the local media and NWS did a much better job holding back this time compared to where we were 14 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Light snow hour 72, somewhat looks like the 12z GGEM ensemble mean. This is going to come in just wet enough to keep hope alive. Look at the QPF total maps...there is virtually no liquid precipitation north of Trenton. Those are all 0.01 values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well that just confirmed my suspicion, every model made a radical shift in one run. Tonight should be interesting. If things play out like I think they will then we will see another radical change by the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Light snow hour 78, all from the UL energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Light snow hour 72, somewhat looks like the 12z GGEM ensemble mean. This is going to come in just wet enough to keep hope alive. Look again, it is virtually no precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What's it with 12z runs on Fridays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yikes, this run isn't even that good for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just one suite. Still not cool that you cant trust the models even within 84 hours. Ill get worried if the 0z does not show changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You know the PV means business when the Euro 2m temps cant even get out of the 20's during afternoon on St. Patrick's Day. Hard to believe the Summer in March was just 2 years ago. What a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 DC does get to 0.75"+. Terrible run for us. Philly is ~0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm curious to know what your thoughts are when we are the edge of actually getting a storm..? Are you still nay-saying it then, too?? No he's actually very knowledgeable and during our actual storms he usually has decent input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Destroyed by suppression twice in the month of March has to be nearly unheard of for this area. Maybe March 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I won't say I told you so....... The weenie in me was hoping. The realist was doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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