Thunder7842 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is there any chance at all that the NAM, which still gives us close to a foot of snow, could be correct? I know the chance is very slim, but you should never completely discount anything in weather. There has to be at least a 5% chance that the NAM could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is there any chance at all that the NAM, which still gives us close to a foot of snow, could be correct? I know the chance is very slim, but you should never completely discount anything in weather. There has to be at least a 5% chance that the NAM could be right. Sure, leaving a 95% chance it's wrong. That does sound just about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We still have all day today and tomorrow. We haveseen big shifts one day out. Gotta give you credit, you're the eternal optimist... when the Mets are down 8-1 in the 9th, you're the guy who claps and says, "Here we go!" when they get a leadoff walk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Given the trends, I will be happy with 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is there any chance at all that the NAM, which still gives us close to a foot of snow, could be correct? I know the chance is very slim, but you should never completely discount anything in weather. There has to be at least a 5% chance that the NAM could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Gotta give you credit, you're the eternal optimist... when the Mets are down 8-1 in the 9th, you're the guy who claps and says, "Here we go!" when they get a leadoff walk... +1 though its more like a 2 out bases empty walk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Given the trends, I will be happy with 3-6 inches. I think given the trends, we welcome flurries with open arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 +1 though its more like a 2 out bases empty walk There are times when the scrappy team will scrap for 4 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to make it 8-7. STILL a loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Huge storms is march not uncommon, but such a snowy solution , doubt it. Looks like cold enough air for SOME snow.. maybe an inch at MOST with this guys.. Open up and let spring in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just want to see what will happen if all the models suddenly jump on a big snowstorm tonight, bipolar much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This last month has been nothing but a tease . So much for that so called great pattern lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Need to wait on the ensemble means. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This last month has been nothing but a tease . So much for that so called great pattern lol. March 1980. Look it up...very similar. Several lower mid atlantic storms. I believe Norfolk VA had its greatest snowfall ever during this pattern back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Whatever data went into 12z, clearly affected the entire suite. GFS, GGEM, UKMET + now the NAVGEM are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This last month has been nothing but a tease . So much for that so called great pattern lol. It's a damn shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We still have all day today and tomorrow. We haveseen big shifts one day out.do you know what the word "unlikely" means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wow the curse of march strikes again. I will say I think we still see a couple inches unlike the last fail. And the Wednesday storm did end up further north with the southern Vermont mountains receiving a crushing blow of an ice storm. You want to talk about disappointment they would have taken rain any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 OPC 48hrs 500mb http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 do you know what the word "unlikely" means? Nope. Nothing is unlikely in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GFS ensemble mean looks terrible. Miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 do you know what the word "unlikely" means? Put it this way, this one is alot more likely to come north than that last one...this is not so much PV problems as it is sloppy phasing, if this thing ends up more organized its coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 March 1980. Look it up...very similar. Several lower mid atlantic storms. I believe Norfolk VA had its greatest snowfall ever during this pattern back then. The ensembles were all over the March 80 analog back in mid-February but this month is turning colder and more suppressed with the snows to date. We already had 4.6" by this time in 1980 and the temperature departure is lower this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Whatever data went into 12z, clearly affected the entire suite. GFS, GGEM, UKMET + now the NAVGEM are all the same. So what's the issue, I assume it's the phasing. Only that could have such a dramatic effect on an entire suite of runs because there's no huge changes with the PV and its placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I guess I would wait until 0z before totally throwing out any chance but I'd say the writing's definitely on the wall. The models all moving in unison means that it likely comes from sampling and that the data, not biases show another crush-job. Incredible that this can happen twice within two weeks in MARCH. Just horrible timing and luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So what's the issue, I assume it's the phasing. Only that could have such a dramatic effect on an entire suite of runs because there's no huge changes with the PV and its placement. Its all phasing, the system basically shears out, the PV does not really have anything to do with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 So what's the issue, I assume it's the phasing. Only that could have such a dramatic effect on an entire suite of runs because there's no huge changes with the PV and its placement. Dont know, but the 12z GEFS mean just also made a dramatic shift south. So it affected them also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Put it this way, this one is alot more likely to come north than that last one...this is not so much PV problems as it is sloppy phasing, if this thing ends up more organized its coming north. The PV is also trending south and stronger. The phasing looks sloppier and the sheared energy is a definite cause, but the PV certainly isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Off to the next one right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Dont know, but the 12z GEFS mean just also made a dramatic shift south. So it affected them also. Either the data indicated the energy would hold back and they all faltered on the phasing because of it. This event is really all or nothing, either the energy ejects east and we see a phase or it hangs back and we see nothing. If that's the case then more dramatic shifts are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I guess I would wait until 0z before totally throwing out any chance but I'd say the writing's definitely on the wall. The models all moving in unison means that it likely comes from sampling and that the data, not biases show another crush-job. Incredible that this can happen twice within two weeks in MARCH. Just horrible timing and luck. Well to be fair it happened with our Jan/Feb storms too. Last minute north trends that kept trending. Probably nothing this drastic in terms of run to run but we did go from practically nothing to 8-12" in 3 days with the early Feb storm. Unfortunately its doing the reverse this time. What is confusing is that the models sampled the energy so badly to show such an extreme solution and then do a complete 180 as soon as that energy came onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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