Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM runs will be crucial today IMO. You have the CMC/SREFS/NAM and GGEM in the amped up camp so its not like it doesnt have support.nam is the outlier. Ggem is hanging energy back too it appears at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There is no such thing as a "seasonal trend". Wednesday's storm trended so far north that I barely recorded .3" of rain. The seasonal trend, if any, is just bad luck in this area. Don't get me wrong, I'm trying to wean myself off this threat, but it's unfair to waltz in after a miss is becoming apparent and effectively issue an "I told you so!" because of the "seasonal trend". It has been a great snow season, can't agree with the bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 nam is the outlier. Ggem is hanging energy back too it appears at 36 Eh if it goes to crap its ok i want my warm weather anyway. Expecting a widespread 6"+ storm area wide in mid march historically is very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As I said before.. go with the model that gives you less.. it seems this season thats the one correct. Last storm was the GGEM, now the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yikes 12z GGEM barely gives Philly anything, ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As I said before.. go with the model that gives you less.. it seems this season thats the one correct. Last storm was the GGEM, now the Euro. how much above average is your seasonal snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Eh if it goes to crap its ok i want my warm weather anyway. Expecting a widespread 6"+ storm area wide in mid march historically is very difficult. Normally I'd agree if it was rain and north of us was getting the big snows. But not when the big snows end up in VA and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yikes 12z GGEM barely gives Philly anything, ugh...Yup. I think this one is obviously done. This always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM is south folks. Like many people have said, if we didn't learn from the last one, then I don't know. This will most likely be south. Still only a couple of model runs, but the 12z trends were not good, especially for the NYC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yikes 12z GGEM barely gives Philly anything, ugh... This model is the worst weenie disappointer of all.. As consistent as the Euro but in the opposite Weenie tantalizing direction.. And likely ultimately wrong. Please someone... Get my prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Canadians owe us a round of beers and maple syrups for this debacle of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What the heck? Last night everyone said the model trends were great and things were trending towards the GGEM. Seemed like a snowstorm was on. Now one set of model runs, and the storm is about finished? I guess this an example of how frustrating a hobby this is. Models make us look like fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 how much above average is your seasonal snowfall? And your point is? I didn't say it was a bad season.. we had plenty of cold and storms.. but if we look back..most of the storms some models were showing 16+ inches.. and most of them in reality were 6-8 inches. So my point is? GO WITH THE ONE SHOWING LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJeff1019 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Outside of 48 to 72 hours lately it doesnt even make sense to track anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Another fail storm? Oy vey lol Unbelieveable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Canadians owe us a round of beers and maple syrups for this debacle of a threat. And some nice Canadian Mist, to help ease the pain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The euro ensembles were steady with this and have been south the whole time. Once you lose the GGEM you have to wrap up the big accumulating scenario. Remember follow the guidance and not what the models used to show. This will not magically turn back to where the models where And the sref and nam at this range are not the models one should look too this far out. Respect the guidance you are seeing from the top 3 skill score models . Not saying it's not going to snow but gone is the big solution and now it's what u can salvage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still alot of time folks. A Lot of time? Not really man, the storm is set pretty much for this Sunday Night into Monday. That's only 2 days away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This will not magically turn back to where the models where Why not? if it did magically turn to a non event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The model that shows nothing wins, it's been that way since mid February. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This forum is a roller coaster.. I really want to see the Euro move North.. just to see what people are going to say here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The players on the field are now being sampled by the models, so you can't say its a blimp in the runs. They are just getting the right idea now. Anyone who says we still have time to change, it simply pushing the luck. Honestly, its been a great winter. Greed is the route of all evil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Another solution by the goofus lol yet, if it had shown a N&W shift, it would have been an "awesome" run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The euro ensembles were steady with this and have been south the whole time. Once you lose the GGEM you have to wrap up the big accumulating scenario. Remember follow the guidance and not what the models used to show. This will not magically turn back to where the models where And the sref and nam at this range are not the models one should look too this far out. Respect the guidance you are seeing from the top 3 skill score models . Not saying it's not going to snow but gone is the big solution and now it's what u can salvage Yea but i thought when this model initially led the way with the armagedon scenario several days back, it's verification score was number 2 or something like that for that 5 to 6 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The euro ensembles were steady with this and have been south the whole time. Once you lose the GGEM you have to wrap up the big accumulating scenario. Remember follow the guidance and not what the models used to show. This will not magically turn back to where the models where And the sref and nam at this range are not the models one should look too this far out. Respect the guidance you are seeing from the top 3 skill score models . Not saying it's not going to snow but gone is the big solution and now it's what u can salvage Euro ensembles had the .50 line into NYC if I'm not mistaken. Now looks to be zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yet, if it had shown a N&W shift, it would have been an "awesome" run Exactly, I have lingered on this site for a while and just made an account. But people pick and choose which runs are right and wrong based on what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efd Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not a matter of disagreement. NCEP model data is available on a hundred different sites, many of which roll out graphics just as fast as—if not faster than—paid services. I completely support accurate descriptions of what a given model has shown, what trends are evident vs. prior runs, initialization vs. current observations, etc., because that's useful. It is extremely confusing and destructive to the integrity of the discussion to repeatedly jump the gun and post misleading speculative one-liners that directly contradict each other. If you're going to say "I see x, and I think that might mean y", that's fine; much of the time it seems like many folks are bent on being the first to acknowledge a frame, though, and as we all know, haste makes waste. It's the same deal with the 12z NAM a few hours ago; I woke up and logged in to the forums on my phone, read through three pages of "wow, what an epic/weenie/HECS run straight out of Anthony's basement!", only to find that the model took significant steps back from a major snow solution. It's confusing, and I would say in direct contrast to the site's mission of disseminating and analyzing info fairly, accurately, and professionally. I don't mean to single anyone out, although there are repeat offenders, and I wish we could do away with the monkey business of forecasting the models. We have all weekend to mull over data... we don't need to risk distributing complete falsities for the sole purpose of blurting out model steps mere seconds before our colleagues. This thread has almost as many guests reading as it does registered users—just keep that in mind. I'll take it to banter or something from here on out, but I feel this needed to be said. AMEN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You still have to give it another set of runs before saying it's permanently done, the shifts seem too radical from 0z. Normally the shifts are more subtle. Back in early March the models were gradually adjusting south with each run, they didn't have such rapid swings. I mean the GGEM went from a foot plus to basically nothing in one run, which seems way too sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We still have all day today and tomorrow. We haveseen big shifts one day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You still have to give it another set of runs before saying it's permanently done, the shifts seem too radical from 0z. Normally the shifts are more subtle. Back in early March the models were gradually adjusting south with each run, they didn't have such rapid swings. I mean the GGEM went from a foot plus to basically nothing in one run, which seems way too sudden. Did the energy just come on shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.