Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The PV is just relentless, with height contours further south on this run over Quebec and New England. I think I'm more-or-less out of the game up here, but I hope somebody to my south can still score.Thanks for trying, Highzenberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like a sheared out crushjob on this GFS run. South of 6z and drier all around. I'd really want these sheared out models to show better solutions soon. If everything is more sheared out or crushed on the 12z suite, it starts to look like this might not end up verifying well. The confluence is also stronger with more of a PV press to the south on Sunday than 6z. Too much energy hanging back will squash the system further south. We need the energy to come out quicker instead of shearing out like to mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Another solution by the goofus lo You would be foolish to dismiss it, the euro isnt that different, and the PV means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The PV is just relentless, with height contours further south on this run over Quebec and New England. I think I'm more-or-less out of the game up here, but I hope somebody to my south can still score. Thanks for trying, Highzenberg. Damn right...we want to see ALL wound up solutions at this point. Models have CONTINUALLY underestimated the PV this season Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still far off, however I could see this continuing the trend south. That is why I would have liked to see the NAM very amped up and not a step back from 6z. It Dodd have a long range NW bias. Losing precip will be more of an issue than the system getting too wound up. Yes I agree the 12z NAM would be a fabulous solution....if it was 18 hours out Sent from my iPhone This is the third 12z model now to try to bury more energy and intensify the PV north of us. All that will result in is a crushed and weak, sheared out crap system. We might have a chance with a consolidated and strong system with a heavy snow wall, but a weak WAA system will just get dried and shriveled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z Ukmet holds back a ton of energy also. Even more then the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Damn right...we want to see ALL wound up solutions at this point. Models have CONTINUALLY underestimated the PV this season Sent from my iPhone Except two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is the third 12z model now to try to bury more energy and intensify the PV north of us. All that will result in is a crushed and weak, sheared out crap system. We might have a chance with a consolidated and strong system with a heavy snow wall, but a weak WAA system will just get dried and shriveled up. I'm thinking it also just means lighter snow amounts even on the northern end if it's precip field if it is strung out. The "heavier banding would be all snow and accumulate, otherwise not much accumulation" kind of stuff Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Except two days ago. Completely different setup than this one though. In almost all cases this season, models have underestimated the PV and corrected as we get closer, usually within 3 days Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z Ukmet is as bad as the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Terrible trends today with the handling of the energy around Texas...Way too much splitting. We're running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm thinking it also just means lighter snow amounts even on the northern end if it's precip field if it is strung out. The "heavier banding would be all snow and accumulate, otherwise not much accumulation" kind of stuff Sent from my iPhone The saving grace for accumulation would be in that case that it seems to come at night. But the dry air coming from the north would likely just break up lighter snow and make for a lot of snow showers or very light steady snow. We would also be coming off a day with temps in the 50s (Saturday), so the warm ground might be a factor then as well. So far, definitely not what we want to see at 12z. Every model so far is definitely shearing and burying the energy and strengthening the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 dollars to donuts the NAM and SREF's start showing this in coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Suppressed storm track in mid March.....can't make this stuff up. Very humbling to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Terrible trends today with the handling of the energy around Texas...Way too much splitting. We're running out of time. If it doesn't turn around at 0z, I'd say we can write this off from Philly north. The relevant pieces of energy should all be sampled by then. The DC area might still have a chance at something 2-4" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 dollars to donuts the NAM and SREF's start showing this in coming runs. The SREFs and NAM are laughably bad much of the time. It should be a surprise to no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Suppressed storm track in mid March.....can't make this stuff up. Very humbling to say the least. Very March 1980 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I know how to read the models. I stated that for those who are disagreeing with yank fans PBP It's not a matter of disagreement. NCEP model data is available on a hundred different sites, many of which roll out graphics just as fast as—if not faster than—paid services. I completely support accurate descriptions of what a given model has shown, what trends are evident vs. prior runs, initialization vs. current observations, etc., because that's useful. It is extremely confusing and destructive to the integrity of the discussion to repeatedly jump the gun and post misleading speculative one-liners that directly contradict each other. If you're going to say "I see x, and I think that might mean y", that's fine; much of the time it seems like many folks are bent on being the first to acknowledge a frame, though, and as we all know, haste makes waste. It's the same deal with the 12z NAM a few hours ago; I woke up and logged in to the forums on my phone, read through three pages of "wow, what an epic/weenie/HECS run straight out of Anthony's basement!", only to find that the model took significant steps back from a major snow solution. It's confusing, and I would say in direct contrast to the site's mission of disseminating and analyzing info fairly, accurately, and professionally. I don't mean to single anyone out, although there are repeat offenders, and I wish we could do away with the monkey business of forecasting the models. We have all weekend to mull over data... we don't need to risk distributing complete falsities for the sole purpose of blurting out model steps mere seconds before our colleagues. This thread has almost as many guests reading as it does registered users—just keep that in mind. I'll take it to banter or something from here on out, but I feel this needed to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think the GGEM has been the most consistent and should tell us if the trend is real or not. I'd say theres a 10% chance it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's not just the PV. Pacific system flattening the Western ridge, forcing energy to split, hurts more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If it doesn't turn around at 0z, I'd say we can write this off from Philly north. The relevant pieces of energy should all be sampled by then. The DC area might still have a chance at something 2-4" or more. The 12z runs are the 1st set of runs that have the southern vort fully sampled. That is already having a clear affect on the whole thing. Started with the NAM (despite people not seeing it) and then clearly on the GFS/UKMET. I agree. If we don't see major changes at 0z, this one is likely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Another solution by the goofus lol why don't you explain why you think it is wrong then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is this weakening trend happening because the energy is finally onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is this weakening trend happening because the energy is finally onshore? The southern energy is onshore for the 12z runs. The Pac energy is not onshore until the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To be fair most of these Day 10 threats look good until we get closer, we've seen it all too often in previous winters. It's the closer threats that tend to play out better. Of course every once in a while a Day 10 monster becomes a reality but it's very rare. I'll give it until tonight though. I still want to see what the GGEM says though as it's had the hot hand lately. Remember how the gfs and euro still hung on to the north track in early March even under 3 days while the GGEM kept trending away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 question: Do seasonal trends mean nothing to you guys? How many times in the +3 to +10 day time frame have models showed a wrapped up big storm? Like once every 2 days. How many actually came to fruition? ONE! and most of us got a bunch (some of you got a lot of snow) of snow followed by A LOT of rain. Why? No blocking.... Seeing the models this AM, to me, is rinse, wash, repeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GGEM is also digging the energy slightly SW around Texas so far @ 36...meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This would be another huge Euro win since this was the solution it had yesterday while all the other guidance was wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To be fair most of these Day 10 threats look good until we get closer, we've seen it all too often in previous winters. It's the closer threats that tend to play out better. Of course every once in a while a Day 10 monster becomes a reality but it's very rare. I'll give it until tonight though. I still want to see what the GGEM says though as it's had the hot hand lately. Remember how the gfs and euro still hung on to the north track in early March even under 3 days while the GGEM kept trending away from that. GGEM runs will be crucial today IMO. You have the CMC/SREFS/NAM and GGEM in the amped up camp so its not like it doesnt have support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 question: Do seasonal trends mean nothing to you guys? How many times in the +3 to +10 day time frame have models showed a wrapped up big storm? Like once every 2 days. How many actually came to fruition? ONE! and most of us got a bunch (some of you got a lot of snow) of snow followed by A LOT of rain. Why? No blocking.... Seeing the models this AM, to me, is rinse, wash, repeat.... There is no such thing as a "seasonal trend". Wednesday's storm trended so far north that I barely recorded .3" of rain. The seasonal trend, if any, is just bad luck in this area. Don't get me wrong, I'm quickly distancing myself from this threat, but it's unfair to waltz in after a miss is becoming apparent and effectively issue an "I told you so!" because of the "seasonal trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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