danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Be happy for climo this time because there's no way it will be as suppressed as the early March system. The PV is not as strong or as south as that time period. There will be a sharp cutoff but we should still get something. Thin argument. Climo does not impact the PV strength or steering flow one bit... If the PV is weaker, fine, but that isn't because of the time of year. I've seen suppression well into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Jm gets a little didactic sometimes... It's a defense mechanism for living in the NYC Metro tropics. Ace would be slapping weenies left and right were he still around, that's for sure. He's probably right (as usual) but the reasoning was a little suspect Let's see what the O'Goofus delivers for St. Paddys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It won't be as suppressed as the early March storm is what I meant to say. Sigh. Please don't let this be pages and pages of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GFS is much better, it's slower with the southern vort instead of running it out ahead of everything. Edit: Nevermind, it's still going to eject the energy in two pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hey everyone! I read your forum when the Mid-Atlantic forum is slow. About the RGEM- I thought on some sites it runs to 60 hrs? Or is this wrong lol? The 6z and 18z runs go out to hour 54. 12z and 0z runs go out to hour 48. There is an upgrade coming in the next few months, which will have the Rgem running out to hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think if the gfs comes in very amped and NW it will be a very good sign here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GFS is much better, it's slower with the southern vort instead of running it out ahead of everything. Yeah, but you need to be careful that it doesn't dig too much on the southwest side of the trough, which would cause it to close off and cutoff too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z NAM to 12z NAM is almost the same with the max QPF. I think a general .8" - 1" worth of QPF would make sense. It would be a different story if the ULL/2nd wave hit us, like the GGEM had a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No improvements on the GFS, utter disaster, headed for Mexico again with the northern energy. Whatever storm it shows is purely from the initial southern vort that out runs everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think if the gfs comes in very amped and NW it will be a very good sign here Sent from my iPhone It won't Edit it will Edit it wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think the GFS looks worse through hour 30. More aggressive digging on the backside, though the slightly earlier phase with the southern trough is a plus I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GFS is much better, it's slower with the southern vort instead of running it out ahead of everything. No improvements on the GFS, utter disaster, headed for Mexico again with the northern energy. Whatever storm it shows is purely from the initial southern vort that out runs everything. A shame that we have to deal with this every single model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Maybe this ends up slightly better than 06z just because it slowed down the southern stream some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A shame that we have to deal with this every single model run. Lol I think everyone needs to let it play out beyond the initial period if they can't make legit "guesses" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A shame that we have to deal with this every single model run. Yanks fan does a great job with the PBP. I think he only meant initially it looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A shame that we have to deal with this every single model run. This is why we have the ability to edit posts, refresh your page once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It looked better until hour 30 or so, then it was clear that the southern stream was still too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yanks fan does a great job with the PBP. I think he only meant initially it looked better It was clear right from the beginning that it was holding back the southern energy more then the 6z run and also digging more and closing off much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It can break a piece off down there and still come around...not a terrible possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You're still going to get a pretty sizable storm this run but it should end up south of the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is why we have the ability to edit posts, refresh your page once in a while. This is why we have models that run past 24 hours, also. Learn some patience. It creates far more confusion to post "major improvements" and "utter disaster" within 90 seconds of each other, any potential benefit from instantaneous info notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It was clear right from the beginning that it was holding back the southern energy more then the 6z run and also digging more and closing off much sooner. Nothing was clear until after hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The low is 100 miles south of the NAM and that is the difference here between a sizeable storm and next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is why we have models that run past 24 hours, also. Learn some patience. It creates far more confusion to post "major improvements" and "utter disaster" within 90 seconds of each other, any potential benefit from instantaneous info notwithstanding. I don't see many people stepping up to do the PBP. Just saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't see many people stepping up to do the PBP. Just saying.. look at the model yourself!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GFS is crap, you can tell even by 24 hours that there is more energy on the back side of the trough.....Not liking 12z trend unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still far off, however I could see this continuing the trend south. That is why I would have liked to see the NAM very amped up and not a step back from 6z. It Dodd have a long range NW bias. Losing precip will be more of an issue than the system getting too wound up. Yes I agree the 12z NAM would be a fabulous solution....if it was 18 hours out Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like a sheared out crushjob on this GFS run. South of 6z and drier all around. I'd really want these sheared out models to show better solutions soon. If everything is more sheared out or crushed on the 12z suite, it starts to look like this might not end up verifying well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 look at the model yourself!!! I know how to read the models. I stated that for those who are disagreeing with yank fans PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Another solution by the goofus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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