WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Trend maps on this run compared to 0z and 6z are not comforting. It's a major shift away from the big hit, which for the NAM at this range (all NAM caveats aside) are a big signal. Gotta hope the 12z Goofus makes a move in the right direction, or it might be time to start tempering down the expectations in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No one should expect more than 12" snow in a storm on St. Patrick's Day. The last warning level snow event to hit NYC this late in the season was March 19, 1992 I believe, so over 20 years now. In the last 20 years did we have a lot of setups similar to this around 3/17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is feel fairly good from just north of NYC and south right now I would not feel too good in places like MSV or POU however I do think this one is about 100 miles north of our arch nemesis a couple weeks ago but not much further north than that I more or less share that thought. Although I would go with 150 miles or so north of our "arch nemesis". I think this system is stronger/more dynamic as well. The analogy will be most evident in terms of a very sharp cut-off to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 it went from unrealistic @ 6z to somewhat realistic @ 12z. this is why you dont base trends on the NAM outside of 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No one should expect more than 12" snow in a storm on St. Patrick's Day. The last warning level snow event to hit NYC this late in the season was March 19, 1992 I believe, so over 20 years now. This is why the 12-18" ensembles of the EURO are too far fetched for me, getting a widespread 12"+ storm on st. Patty's day is going to be an EPIC accomplishment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is feel fairly good from just north of NYC and south right now I would not feel too good in places like MSV or POU however I do think this one is about 100 miles north of our arch nemesis a couple weeks ago but not much further north than that I hope so. Even though I was on a Bahamas cruise for last week's debacle I felt everybody's pain. Having 2/5/2010 flashbacks is never a good thing for any snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The key will be getting the lead wave to eject strong enough so that the confluence with the PV doesn't suppress it more than the NAM is showing. Even if you cut the NAM QPF by 50%, it's still a nice storm for this late in the season. f84.gif If you cut the NAM in half, you basically get the last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble mean. .50"-.60" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I hope so. Even though I was on a cruise for last week's debacle I felt everybody's pain. Having 2/5/2010 flashbacks is never a good thing for any snow lover. The mother of all storms with sharp cut offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This system is by far the most dynamic system a loft this season. I almost hope the GFS shows us getting 3" of rain. That will put us in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Trend maps on this run compared to 0z and 6z are not comforting. It's a major shift away from the big hit, which for the NAM at this range (all NAM caveats aside) are a big signal. Gotta hope the 12z Goofus makes a move in the right direction, or it might be time to start tempering down the expectations in a big way. Only the true weenies have big expectations here. It's going to be March 17th, and the polar vortex is sitting in place again where we saw just 2 weeks ago another storm get crushed within 60 hours. I'm not harping on anything until after 0z tonight and neither should anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you cut the NAM in half, you basically get the last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble mean. .50"-.60" of precip. That's such a weenie comment. Love people always pulling that crap when in reality it was just something they heard elsewhere and ran with it. It's the 4k NAM that's historically over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only the true weenies have big expectations here. It's going to be March 17th, and the polar vortex is sitting in place again where we saw just 2 weeks ago another storm get crushed within 60 hours. I'm not harping on anything until after 0z tonight and neither should anyone else. I think your statement is a little overdone. We've seen what can happen in March (this year) and past March's have delivered the goods. In this case, the potential is there, we just need the synoptics to deliver the goods. The pattern has just sucked recently and we are hoping for a break, in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z RGEM @ 48 looks like the 6z GFS @ 54 hours to me....It is digging the energy on the back of the trough fairly south. Yeah RGEM burying a lot of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxphanatic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's such a weenie comment. Love people always pulling that crap when in reality it was just something they heard elsewhere and ran with it. It's the 4k NAM that's historically over done. No it's also true of the regular NAM qpf-wise and often temp-wise (warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No it's also true of the regular NAM qpf-wise and often temp-wise (warmer) Show me something to back that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z RGEM looks like the 6z GFS @ 54 hours to me....It is digging the energy on the back of the trough fairly south. Yeah RGEM burying a lot of energy. The RGEM only runs through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The RGEM only runs through 48 hours. I know, I'm comparing the RGEM @ 48 hours to the GFS @ 54... EVen if the main low gets buried, we can still cash in on the initial front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Told you it's going to be suppressed though probably not as bad as the early March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z RGEM looks like the 6z GFS @ 54 hours to me....It is digging the energy on the back of the trough fairly south. Yeah RGEM burying a lot of energy. If the 12z models trend towards burying more energy, it might be time to put this to rest if 0z doesn't make a reversal. By 0z tonight we should have the features sampled on land. We don't want to see a sheared out mess of energy, the initial moisture slug won't be very much and the PV should have no trouble drying it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z RGEM looks like the 6z GFS @ 54 hours to me....It is digging the energy on the back of the trough fairly south. Yeah RGEM burying a lot of energy. RGEM has been terrible this year. I wouldnt put much stock in whatever it shows, id trust the NAM more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 RGEM has been terrible this year. I wouldnt put much stock in whatever it shows, id trust the NAM more Lol, beyond 36-42 the RGEM has actually been meh also never trust it's 06 and 18z runs they are exceptionally bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I know, I'm comparing the RGEM @ 48 hours to the GFS @ 54... Here is hour 48, not sure what you can even get from this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Told you it's going to be suppressed. C'mon man clean up your act you've been nothing but a negative person here lately, your better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No one should expect more than 12" snow in a storm on St. Patrick's Day. The last warning level snow event to hit NYC this late in the season was March 19, 1992 I believe, so over 20 years now. I'm not saying there is no use for stats like these, just that they would not be convincing enough to alter a forecast, if indeed there was consensus for a such a solution (and there by no means is). I remember many mets undercutting the output during Oct for climatological reasons and I had 15" of paste in SW Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 People get ready theirs a train a com'in and if not a heck of a winter anyway,memorable that is for sure.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hey everyone! I read your forum when the Mid-Atlantic forum is slow. About the RGEM- I thought on some sites it runs to 60 hrs? Or is this wrong lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think your statement is a little overdone. We've seen what can happen in March (this year) and past March's have delivered the goods. In this case, the potential is there, we just need the synoptics to deliver the goods. The pattern has just sucked recently and we are hoping for a break, in this case. Jm gets a little didactic sometimes... It's a defense mechanism for living in the NYC Metro tropics. Ace would be slapping weenies left and right were he still around, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Be happy for climo this time because there's no way it will be as suppressed as the early March system. The PV is not as strong or as south as that time period. There will be a sharp cutoff but we should still get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Be happy for climo this time because there's no way it will be as suppressed as the early March system. The PV is not as strong or as south as that time period. There will be a sharp cutoff but we should still get something. Wait, didn't you just say it was going to be suppressed? Told you it's going to be suppressed though probably not as bad as the early March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It won't be as suppressed as the early March storm is what I meant to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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