IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Dude calm the hell down I NEVER said that this was weak at all. Also I posted that link FOR YOU because it updates almost as fast as SV. Not everyone's out to get you lol points well taken. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Based on my theory a few posts back on why the NAM is really far north, it seems so far it has corrected itself with the energy coming on shore from the NW. It is farther SW with this energy a bit...Doesn't mean it won't be a good run, but if my theory is right it'll probably correct itself south a bit here. As I predicted, NAM took a step towards globals, still wasn't a bad run, and very close to bringing the energy out. It took the shortwave that comes in from Canada in a more Southern direction, this puts more emphasis on the backside of the trough. Still, its the NAM +48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Am I missing something ? This run does not seem as amped up as it's previous run, and actually gives us less precip, frozen or not. Still incredible given the time of year and potential, but not as impressive as last run of this model. Also, what is the significance of the second low if it doesn't impact us and heads out to sea? Not sure how this is seen as an "epic run". Just a dose of reality here lol Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 More positively tilted compared to 06z so it should be less wrapped up. finally, one rational post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We'll never know where it was going with that second wave but it was much further south than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_069.gif that looks awesome, WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As I predicted, NAM took a step towards globals, still wasn't a bad run, and very close to bringing the energy out. It took the shortwave that comes in from Canada in a more Southern direction, this puts more emphasis on the backside of the trough. Still, its the NAM +48hrs. Right, we'll have to watch the rest of the models at 12z and again at 0z to have a really good idea. The PV needs to be weak enough to allow the precip to come north but not too weak to allow tons of warm air, the storm has to be a consolidated, phased entity, and the west coast kicker can hopefully hang back and give it breathing room to ride up the coast and deliver the knockout punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 How much qpf until 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As I predicted, NAM took a step towards globals, still wasn't a bad run, and very close to bringing the energy out. It took the shortwave that comes in from Canada in a more Southern direction, this puts more emphasis on the backside of the trough. Still, its the NAM +48hrs. Fully disagree. The 06z GFS never even closes off the H5 low or go neutral tilt. The differences between the GFS and NAM are the differences between black and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Am I missing something ? This run does not seem as amped up as it's previous run, and actually gives us less precip, frozen or not. Still incredible given the time of year and potential, but not as impressive as last run of this model. Also, what is the significance of the second low if it doesn't impact us and heads out to sea? Not sure how this is seen as an "epic run". Just a dose of reality here lol Sent from my iPhone at 72 hrs its + 1 QPF as per Earthlight. how is that NOt amped up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 1.0-1.5 qpf for us, BUT a SHARP cut-off 50-100 miles to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Fully disagree. The 06z GFS never even closes off the H5 low or go neutral tilt. The differences between the GFS and NAM are the differences between black and white. I'm talking about when the energy enters the CONUS early on in the run...Now what happens down south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You could see from hour 48 that it was holding more energy back in the trough and digging more then the 6z run. That causes it to close off and cutoff quicker and further south and it breaks up the system into 2. NAM definitely trended towards the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 at 72 hrs its + 1 QPF as per Earthlight. how is that NOt amped up? It's silly even analyzing the long range NAM too much lol...but all things considered, the last run (6z) gave us 1.5"+ of qpf and still much more to come. This run gives us nearly 1", but is over. Pretty big differences. Most likely 1/2 of the qpf of 6z. But as I said, it is the long range NAM, so we have to use the the other models at this point anyway Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 what am i missing here...1" to 1.5" for a lot of us around CNJ all frozen on march 17th..how the **** is that not epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 1.0-1.5 qpf for us, BUT a SHARP cut-off 50-100 miles to our north. It's a PV storm with tons of dry air on the north side. There is very likely to be a sharp north to south gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You could see from hour 48 that it was holding more energy back in the trough and digging more then the 6z run. That causes it to close off and cutoff quicker and further south and it breaks up the system into 2. NAM definitely trended towards the globals. Yeah, and in a big way. That sharp precip cut-off just the north is scary too. Brings back lots of bad memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's silly even analyzing the long range NAM too much lol...but all things considered, the last run (6z) gave us 1.5"+ of qpf and still much more to come. This run gives us nearly 1", but is over. Pretty big differences. Most likely 1/2 of the qpf of 6z. But as I said, it is the long range NAM, so we have to use the the other models at this point anyway Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's a PV storm with tons of dry air on the north side. There is very likely to be a sharp north to south gradient. Yup we better hope the PV doesn't press down too much. Where have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's silly even analyzing the long range NAM too much lol...but all things considered, the last run (6z) gave us 1.5"+ of qpf and still much more to come. This run gives us nearly 1", but is over. Pretty big differences. Most likely 1/2 of the qpf of 6z. But as I said, it is the long range NAM, so we have to use the the other models at this point anyway Sent from my iPhone The 6z run was tossed anyway. This run makes more sense and looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well that run sucked. Especially for northern areas. ALB went from 30" or so on the 6z to zilch at 12z. Obviously that's an extreme example and southern areas do ok with the initial slug. This solution looks more reasonable compared with model consensus. The PV is suppressive and forces the 500mb low south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 what am i missing here...1" to 1.5" for a lot of us around CNJ all frozen on march 17th..how the **** is that not epic Verbatim it is. But more realistically, it shunts the main system to the south and all you are getting is overunning ( likely overamplified with QPF) and it is STILL not within ideal range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 what am i missing here...1" to 1.5" for a lot of us around CNJ all frozen on march 17th..how the **** is that not epic It's the NAM at 60-72 hours which is basically fantasy land for the NAM. The NAM went to the EURO and GFS with a more southerly look to the WAA snows with the coastal missing & just went nuts on the WAA snow qpf. It's the NAM qpf output so cut it by at least 30-40%. Not a lot of the indices are favorable other than the cold air being very available which is actually part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Verbatim it is. But more realistically, it shunts the main system to the south and all you are getting is overunning ( likely overamplified with QPF) and it is STILL not within ideal range. Exactly. Verbatim, would be an extremely impressive storm of 6-8" or so. I think once we get off the idea of there being a good chance of this being a 12"er or greater, what we have is a very significant storm for this time of year. Just being honest, when one says its "1 to 1.5" qpf", that is not realistic. The 1" line is right around NYC with the 1.5" line down near rightmond VA to Delaware. If we're reading model output, we might as well read it as it is, and not what we want it to be Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the NAM at 60-72 hours which is basically fantasy land for the NAM. The NAM went to the EURO and GFS with a more southerly look to the WAA snows with the coastal missing & just went nuts on the WAA snow qpf. It's the NAM qpf output so cut it by at least 30-40%. Not a lot of the indices are favorable other than the cold air being very available which is actually part of the problem. Is feel fairly good from just north of NYC and south right now I would not feel too good in places like MSV or POU however I do think this one is about 100 miles north of our arch nemesis a couple weeks ago but not much further north than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Exactly. Verbatim, would be an extremely impressive storm of 6-8" or so. I think once we get off the idea of there being a good chance of this being a 12"er or greater, what we have is a very significant storm for this time of year. Just being honest, when one says its "1 to 1.5" qpf", that is not realistic. The 1" line is right around NYC with the 1.5" line down near rightmond VA to Delaware. If we're reading model output, we might as well read it as it is, and not what we want it to be Sent from my iPhone No one should expect more than 12" snow in a storm on St. Patrick's Day. The last warning level snow event to hit NYC this late in the season was March 19, 1992 I believe, so over 20 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Uhmm yea sign me up for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Verbatim, sleet gets maybe up to Toms River this run. NYC would want a solution just like this for the best chance at a warning level snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The key will be getting the lead wave to eject strong enough so that the confluence with the PV doesn't suppress it more than the NAM is showing. Even if you cut the NAM QPF by 50%, it's still a nice storm for this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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