Ed Lizard Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not that I trust SREFs that far out, while the mean isn't bad, looks like most of the wetter individual members are rain for NYC, the colder members are suppressed and dry. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reporting to mods because innappropriate material SREFS have held serve as one of the wettest/snowiest models, great sign Man 72 hours out on modelling has become like 7 days this winter....unbelievable. Good continuity, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not that I trust SREFs that far out, while the mean isn't bad, looks like most of the wetter individual members are rain for NYC, the colder members are suppressed and dry. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Sref plumes are 1.53" of total precip. 7.44" of snow And then the rest as mostly sleet with a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The SREF mean is 1.50"+ for NYC all frozen on the mean. 1.50"+ runs right a long I-95 and the 1.25"+ runs well NW into the interior. The surface actually cools as the storm goes on. What an epic run. There's a surface high that drains cold air in via the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I counted over a dozen 00z ECMWF ensemble members showing 18"+ at KMMU and at least a dozen members or so >1.00" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There's a surface high that drains cold air in via the surface. Yeah, if the 850mb low ends up further north though watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Man 72 hours out on modelling has become like 7 days this winter....unbelievable. Good continuity, agreed. and if it doesn't show a good solution, we tossed.. and if it does.. we are suppose to no believe in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm more interested in what the globals have to say than the SREFS and nam model. I hope people don't get too worked up over this. Be happy if we get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM is running slow today on StormVista, must be all the interference from Anthony's basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sref plumes are 1.53" of total precip. 7.44" of snow And then the rest as mostly sleet with a little rain. That's what I'm concerned about-the hugely amped members are probably tons of sleet anywhere near the city after some front end snow. I'd like to see the warm nose muted in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm more interested in what the globals have to say than the SREFS and nam model. I hope people don't get too worked up over this. Be happy if we get anything. Why should we be happy with a mediocre solution? Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's what I'm concerned about-the hugely amped members are probably tons of sleet anywhere near the city after some front end snow. I'd like to see the warm nose muted in future runs. It's a SWFE, warm mid-levels are a fact of life in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's what I'm concerned about-the hugely amped members are probably tons of sleet anywhere near the city after some front end snow. I'd like to see the warm nose muted in future runs. Upton is hugging Euro & Goofus ( the less amped solutions and to a lesser degree CMC because of consistency) and totally dismissing NAM ( likley due to general performance but more so due to range ( probably would look at it more closely starting tomorrow ( within 48 hrs) which make sense IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Does anyone realize that on the 06z NAM the 850mb low actually ends up over West Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 and if it doesn't show a good solution, we tossed.. and if it does.. we are suppose to no believe in it. It's the theme of this winter. Take it case by case....synoptics also play a role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hour 42 on the 12z NAM, bombs away, H5 is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the theme of this winter. Take it case by case....synoptics also play a role Don't you know that it can't snow here because it's March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Upton is hugging Euro & Goofus ( the less amped solutions and to a lesser degree CMC because of consistency) and totally dismissing NAM ( likley due to general performance but more so due to range ( probably would look at it more closely starting tomorrow ( within 48 hrs) which make sense IMHO After the last few weeks.. I think they just moving along with the model that shows less probability of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 per HM in the mid-atlantic thread: Just a little heads up here. The mid-level lows do go inland initially, but the Euro is actually quicker with the transfer than GFS (this will be a big deal; it determines where the convergence sets up). There is some pretty okay deformation/frontogen with this thing. I am again impressed by the cold air available, too, should banding become more focused.As always, it's all about rates. Pay attention to banding signals with these convergence areas, embedded within general warm air advection. It seems inevitable that banding will become likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Low intensifies right of Arkansas. The crap solutions have broad lows near Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The ARW at 9z is an example of what a great solution for everyone would be-the good snow makes it up to around Boston and then the whole storm slides east under the PV. We need the PV to suppress some, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The nam isn't backing down just looking at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't you know that it can't snow here because it's March? That's right. Almost forgot.....27f here at the moment. Mid January type stuff.....truly memorable, St. Paddy's storm or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The northern stream is way more energized. This is going to be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What a bomb, hour 48 intensifying low pressure over the NE corner of Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM and SREF members show much more phasing than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'll say that I don't think rain would be a risk as there's too much low level cold draining in from the PV and high, sleet of course is very possible. Getting a lot of snow and then a lot of sleet on top would certainly make this worse for travelers and the general public than just snow if the Nam and SREFS were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Anthony really outdid himself on this run, good job buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'll say that I don't think rain would be a risk as there's too much low level cold draining in from the PV and high, sleet of course is very possible. Getting a lot of snow and then a lot of sleet on top would certainly make this worse for travelers and the general public than just snow if the Nam and SREFS were correct. This setup is more favorable for IP/ZR than plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 H5 is going crazy, so many pieces of energy involved, all phasing in. This is in no hurry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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