IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Precip probs look great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 20 miles or so NW of the city the surface freezing line hangs tough while 850's go to 5C+. Sounds like ZR. What? The maps I'm looking at show the 850 0c getting nowhere near there. The warmest frame has it near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 20 miles or so NW of the city the surface freezing line hangs tough while 850's go to 5C+. Sounds like ZR. Northern NJ s/e NY and s/w CT could get a heavy snow paste with this run. Subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What? The maps I'm looking at show the 850 0c getting nowhere near there. The warmest frame has it near Philly. Yeah you're right, I was looking at something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Geeezz SREFS still look so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 00z ECMWF Ens indies are really hit or miss. There really is no medium here at all. Either you eject all the energy and wind up with a big storm (monster in some cases), or you hold it back and a weak wave of snow spreads over the MA. I can't say I've ever seen energy being held back the way the OP GFS and the ECMWF have been holding it back though. I kind of think that's how it will be as well, either a weak storm that doesn't do much for anybody or a wrapped up storm that delivers lots of precip but a lot of it could be a mix because of how warm the mid levels could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'd rather take my chances with a strong low, heavy front end snow and if I end as sleet that's fine by me. Me too. The NAM has taint at the end but the lift which comes through on the front end is really impressive and would result in a dynamic heavy snow for everybody here. The snow depth maps (more accurate than the weeniebell maps) show 12+" for anybody north of Trenton followed by some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I kind of think that's how it will be as well, either a weak storm that doesn't do much for anybody or a wrapped up storm that delivers lots of precip but a lot of it could be a mix because of how warm the mid levels could get.The past couple wrapped up LP systems have had that pesky warm punch at 900-925mb that took sometimes a good bit to overcome. Fine wire we're walking on the coast regardless if its DJF or march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Me too. The NAM has taint at the end but the lift which comes through on the front end is really impressive and would result in a dynamic heavy snow for everybody here. The snow depth maps (more accurate than the weeniebell maps) show 12+" for anybody north of Trenton followed by some sleet. Agreed, if you look at the low res simulated radar it even shows most of NJ in a dry slot at hour 87 with more precip still hung back all the way to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I kind of think that's how it will be as well, either a weak storm that doesn't do much for anybody or a wrapped up storm that delivers lots of precip but a lot of it could be a mix because of how warm the mid levels could get. Wouldn't the ggem be ideal with lots of precip and no temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The past couple wrapped up LP systems have had that pesky warm punch at 900-925mb that took sometimes a good bit to overcome. Fine wire we're walking on the coast regardless if its DJF or march Ask Lord Earthlight, he even had sleet mix in during PDII and that was about as cold an air mass as you will ever have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ask Lord Earthlight, he even had sleet mix in during PDII and that was about as cold an air mass as you will ever have. Great idea the holy one would know. Its incredible though even during BDB we saw some mixing around 925 and that was as close as we'll get to a true arctic blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ask Lord Earthlight, he even had sleet mix in during PDII and that was about as cold an air mass as you will ever have. I was living in Brooklyn then but, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If they aren't as good or better than 03z, I am going to throw a temper tantrum! Lol, this is a classic post. Man, they look good......damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I personally don't think mixing will be an issue away from the coast unless the wound up NAM would be correct & I see a low probability for that...I'd be more worried about suppression than mixing if I were in NYC. (though I still worry about it here in Philly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I was living in Brooklyn then but, yeah. I know, that was my point. (Since a lot of posters here live closer to Brooklyn than say Sussex) People that live on or near the immediate coast should accept that mixing issues are not necessarily guaranteed but always a likely possibility with a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What? The maps I'm looking at show the 850 0c getting nowhere near there. The warmest frame has it near Philly. He unconsciously roots for rain on LI and NYC and his mind makes him see things that aren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 He unconsciously roots for rain on LI and NYC and his mind makes him see things that aren't there. It was an honest mistake, sometimes those SREF's maps are a bit whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'll point this out before the NAM run, IMO one of the reasons we get a far NW solution on the NAM; Basically the GFS/EURO have more energy on the wave that dives down around New Mexico, while the NAM kind of focuses on the wave that dives through Montana etc. More energy on the backside of the trough kind of forces the energy to dig farther SW, so less is eventually ejected. In the sickness that is my weather addiction I've analyzed every hour of every model run and to me this is one of the features that stood out onto why some models are more north than others. GFS: image upload software NAM: image ru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 By the way, high res graphics show 1.5" QPF as snow on the SREF. Would be nice if they were worth something at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The SREF mean is 1.50"+ for NYC all frozen on the mean. 1.50"+ runs right a long I-95 and the 1.25"+ runs well NW into the interior. The surface actually cools as the storm goes on. What an epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The individual Euro ensembles are pretty exciting. Just perusing through them, there are a bunch of them similar to the OP...but also a lot of members that have big solutions and even a handful that have huge storms similar to yesterdays DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Based on my theory a few posts back on why the NAM is really far north, it seems so far it has corrected itself with the energy coming on shore from the NW. It is farther SW with this energy a bit...Doesn't mean it won't be a good run, but if my theory is right it'll probably correct itself south a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Based on my theory a few posts back on why the NAM is really far north, it seems so far it has corrected itself with the energy coming on shore from the NW. It is farther SW with this energy a bit...Doesn't mean it won't be a good run, but if my theory is right it'll probably correct itself south a bit here. I'm not really seeing what you're talking about, by hour 18 the NAM has the northern energy in Montana. If it's further west it's not by a lot. Also looking at H5, the northern vort is stronger this run. That's probably going to bring a quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You have a nearly perfectly timed PNA spike right as the system is taking shape. Couldn't have asked for a better looking ridge. MJO forcing FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is porn, just wanted to share.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is porn, just wanted to share.... SREFS.gif Reporting to mods because innappropriate material SREFS have held serve as one of the wettest/snowiest models, great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM is ejecting all of the energy and in one piece. The northern vort is also a bit stronger. This should be another epic run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reporting to mods because innappropriate material SREFS have held serve as one of the wettest/snowiest models, great sign honestly, whatever the SREF shows right now is completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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