MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sref is really impressive from 03z. It shows a swath of 12 inches from Philly to nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sref is really impressive from 03z. It shows a swath of 12 inches from Philly to nyc. Nice to see the GGEM/NAM/SREFS showing more amped solution and leaving very little energy behind ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 HPC Discussion from earlier this morning: ...MIDDLE MS-OH VALLEYS/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF SNOW POSSIBLY MIXEDWITH SLEET AND ICE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURIINTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRALAPPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLYMONDAY. THE NAM WAS RULED OUT DUE TO ITS FAST SOLUTION RELATIVETO THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WHILE ASPECTS OF THE GFS WERE ALSO RULEDOUT PARTICULARLY THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADSURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS THAT APPEARS TO BEAUGMENTED THROUGH CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. OTHERWISE ITSSOLUTION APPEARS USEFUL BUT IS LESS THAN IDEAL. PRESENTLY PREFERTHE LOW TRACKS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND P-TYPESOF THE 12-00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEMOST...WITH THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN OFFERING SOME BENEFIT ASWELL. THE SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS MISSOURI INTO THE SOUTHERNOHIO VALLEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURESPROFILES INITIALLY AND WILL BE COMPETING WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAININGIN FROM THE NORTH AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH IF AND EXACTLY HOWCONVECTION WILL AFFECT MOISTURE RETURN. THUS...PROBABILITIES OF 4INCHES OR MORE ARE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM DUE TO MULTIPLEUNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER...IF ONE USES SOME OF THE DIRECT MODELOUTPUT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF...4 TO EVEN 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALLACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT THESE AMOUNTS SEEM TO HAVE A LOWCHANCE OF OCCURRING. FARTHER EAST...MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMINGINTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS DEVELOPING ACROSSTHE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 12INCHES. THUS...HAVE HIGH/MODERATE/LOW PROBABILITIES OF 4/8/12INCHES RESPECTIVELY IN THIS AREA. CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW EASTOF THE APPALACHIANS ARE LESS CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN ROLE OFTHE NORTHERN STREAM/INITIALLY WARM TEMPERATURES/GROWING SOLUTIONSSPREAD. THUS...PREFERRED TO ADJUST DOWNWARD THE DIRECT MODELOUTPUT OF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGESTTOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 OR EVEN 8 INCHES NEAR WASHINGTON DC...UNTILSOME OF THE FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNCERTAINTY ARE BETTERRESOLVED. AGAIN...PREFERRED A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THEECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTSTHEN MADE. THE FINAL RESULT SHOWS THE HIGHEST SNOW PROBABILITIESACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4INCHES AND LOW PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OVER WASHINGTON DC. ANARROW ZONE OF SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCHES OF FREEZINGRAIN ALSO ACCOMPANY SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THEOHIO VALLEY.JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sref is really impressive from 03z. It shows a swath of 12 inches from Philly to nyc. There's a warm layer moving in aloft @ The end of the run. Turns to sleet for 95 Dc-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Clearly two different camps developing with the SREF/CMC/NAM showing the more amplified and consolidated initial wave. We will have to see if the SREF back off a bit today. My gut says they will. But we still have to resolve how that initial wave is handled as the globals and CMC/shorter term models are up in arms in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There's a warm layer moving in aloft @ The end of the run. Turns to sleet for 95 Dc-NYC 06z NAM had the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 March 19th, 1992's storm had some sleet mix in where I lived in Brooklyn at the time... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22589-todays-almanac/page-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Clearly two different camps developing with the SREF/CMC/NAM showing the more amplified and consolidated initial wave. We will have to see if the SREF back off a bit today. My gut says they will. But we still have to resolve how that initial wave is handled as the globals and CMC/shorter term models are up in arms in that regard. Is there any chance of the 2nd ,more significant SLP, to make it up the coast after the intial thump being forcast bhy th emore amplified models for Sun/Mon.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Clearly two different camps developing with the SREF/CMC/NAM showing the more amplified and consolidated initial wave. We will have to see if the SREF back off a bit today. My gut says they will. But we still have to resolve how that initial wave is handled as the globals and CMC/shorter term models are up in arms in that regard.The GGEM has been pretty rock solid with its forecast so far and it did very well with the monday system last week leading the way on the strictly mid atlantic storm outcome. Educated guess is the GFS/EURO will step more towards a more consolidated LP and leave less energy behind compared to previous runs. The NAM is expected to be furthest north and wrapped of most if not all the models so that is no surprise to be honest john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some people are unnecessarily panicking over the sheered out models, trends were still great overnight and the SREF's delivered a top end MECS runs as well I wouldn't start getting excited until tonight after 0z maybe, since the threat of too sheared out/PV suppression is still there. The 6z GFS started shearing out the energy again, and even if the PV is more conducive it will be hard to accumulate a lot of snow with 0.3-0.4" liquid over 12 hours. We need for it to come in heavy like the GGEM and NAM have. A sheared out solution like the Euro would likely be 1-3" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF precip probs look awesome. Interestingly waiting for the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is there any chance of the 2nd ,more significant SLP, to make it up the coast after the intial thump being forcast bhy th emore amplified models for Sun/Mon.? IMO that comes up the coast it will literally put almost the entire are at above 95-95' snowfall levels. Think for that to happen we'd have to hope to delay the system crashing into the west coast and also that S/W coming through idaho to take it easy or my fear is it could deamplify the flow on the EC for second LP that would be the bigger part of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wouldn't start getting excited until tonight after 0z maybe, since the threat of too sheared out/PV suppression is still there. The 6z GFS started shearing out the energy again, and even if the PV is more conducive it will be hard to accumulate a lot of snow with 0.3-0.4" liquid over 12 hours. We need for it to come in heavy like the GGEM and NAM have. A sheared out solution like the Euro would likely be 1-3" tops.Absolutely but IMO for this storm to be BIG we need that secondary LP to come up the coast as well. That thing comes up it will really bump up accumulations. Watching out west to see if those features dont deamplify the flow on the EC like we've seen this year with some of systems that couldve been big punted by what happened on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND LONG ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...OR THE RESULTING INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOWFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Absolutely but IMO for this storm to be BIG we need that secondary LP to come up the coast as well. That thing comes up it will really bump up accumulations. Watching out west to see if those features dont deamplify the flow on the EC like we've seen this year with some of systems that couldve been big punted by what happened on the west coast The kicker out west has to be watched-the more separation between them the better. You can see towards the end of the GFS run the kicker bearing down and forcing our storm to shear out and weaken as it goes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The kicker out west has to be watched-the more separation between them the better. You can see towards the end of the GFS run the kicker bearing down and forcing our storm to shear out and weaken as it goes east. And thats hurt many of our potentially big storms that couldve occured this year. Good part why we didnt see that BIG ONE because the kicker spacing was never too sufficient for prefectly timed phasing and negative tilt on the EC at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And thats hurt many of our potentially big storms that couldve occured this year. Good part why we didnt see that BIG ONE because the kicker spacing was never too sufficient for prefectly timed phasing and negative tilt on the EC at the right time Seemingly EVERY time we r looking at a big dog huntin there is a kicker right behind that SLP. Thats why a pattern like this, with no consistent blocking & too pogressive, will produce moderate hits far more frequantly than major hits and obviously nothing historic thus far. It will be tough to bring about a SERF or Nam scenario obviously because you need the PV in a nearly perfect position ( moving more north but not so far that we torch with a strengthening SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 And thats hurt many of our potentially big storms that couldve occured this year. Good part why we didnt see that BIG ONE because the kicker spacing was never too sufficient for prefectly timed phasing and negative tilt on the EC at the right time Precisely point I just made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF countdown......t minus 5 If they aren't as good or better than 03z, I am going to throw a temper tantrum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Very rarely are you going to have an intense low in the TN Valley and not have precipitation issues on the immediate coast. It's just a fact of life. Out here we should get buried. "cues all the people wishcasting for a weaker solution so they can have their imaginary 3-6"" The NAM at 6z has almost all sleet anywhere near the city, going later to freezing rain and mostly sleet well N and W. I don't think there is a very large window for a lot of snow especially near the city and coast. A stronger low introduces a wicked mid level warm layer-just look at what happened in NY/NH/VT just 2 days ago with how far north sleet made it. A weaker low makes for lighter precip that might have a hard time accumulating if it's daylight. Hopefully your "out here we should get buried" comment was a stir the pot attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hot off the presses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Clearly two different camps developing with the SREF/CMC/NAM showing the more amplified and consolidated initial wave. We will have to see if the SREF back off a bit today. My gut says they will. But we still have to resolve how that initial wave is handled as the globals and CMC/shorter term models are up in arms in that regard. Why do you feel that the sref's will back off today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF are northwest still. Very wet.. 1+" QPF for everybody. A lot of members seem to be leaning northwest with the MSLP track and I would assume some are pretty warm. But the mean looks like it would produce a really snowy scenario here. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_084_mslp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM at 6z has almost all sleet anywhere near the city, going later to freezing rain and mostly sleet well N and W. I don't think there is a very large window for a lot of snow especially near the city and coast. A stronger low introduces a wicked mid level warm layer-just look at what happened in NY/NH/VT just 2 days ago with how far north sleet made it. A weaker low makes for lighter precip that might have a hard time accumulating if it's daylight. Hopefully your "out here we should get buried" comment was a stir the pot attempt. I'd rather take my chances with a strong low, heavy front end snow and if I end as sleet that's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why do you feel that the sref's will back off today? I just think it's unlikely that the storm will end up as far northwest as some of the SREF members are indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 00z ECMWF Ens indies are really hit or miss. There really is no medium here at all. Either you eject all the energy and wind up with a big storm (monster in some cases), or you hold it back and a weak wave of snow spreads over the MA. I can't say I've ever seen energy being held back the way the OP GFS and the ECMWF have been holding it back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wow, very nice. I hope people relize that treating the roads is going to be a major issue. They are very low on salt around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF are northwest still. Very wet.. 1+" QPF for everybody. A lot of members seem to be leaning northwest with the MSLP track and I would assume some are pretty warm. But the mean looks like it would produce a really snowy scenario here. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_084_mslp.gif There definitely has to be a bunch of rainers with a spread nw like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still even further NW with a decent NW bias on the spread. This would be an impressive snow solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREF are northwest still. Very wet.. 1+" QPF for everybody. A lot of members seem to be leaning northwest with the MSLP track and I would assume some are pretty warm. But the mean looks like it would produce a really snowy scenario here. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_084_mslp.gif 20 miles or so NW of the city the surface freezing line hangs tough while 850's go to 5C+. Sounds like ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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