Nibor Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS has light snow at hr 72 from NYC south. Mod snow SNJ.hr 78-90 Mod snow for NYC and most of the metro. Decent run. 3-6 for most of the area. Western Maryland is burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Man the 6z RGEM is amazing @ 54 hours. Seems like the mesoscale models are more NW while the globals except for the JMA & GGEM are a bit more strung out. You looking at the same RGEM as this? This is awful..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Several inches on the gfs. I will take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Something to keep an eye on in future runs: 6z Compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Something to keep an eye on in future runs: 6z Compared to 0z The differences are pretty big. Confluence further south on 6z, h5 not closed off on the 6z, trough positively tilt on 6z. 6z looks pretty strung out when you compare the time steps you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gfs and euro are still holding back energy. Although, I will gladly take 3-6 inches that the gfs shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You looking at the same RGEM as this? This is awful..... RGEM.png Lot more energy out ahead of it compared to the globals, the NAM is way overdone, but RGEM looks good to me for a GGEM-like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The differences are pretty big. Confluence further south on 6z, h5 not closed off on the 6z, trough positively tilt on 6z. 6z looks pretty strung out when you compare the time steps you posted. 6z GFS looks similar to the 0z Euro. Still holding back alot of energy. But a H5 cut-off low in the Gulf is worse, in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is wetter thsn the op. Looks like 0.50 + for nyc with more just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lot more energy out ahead of it compared to the globals, the NAM is way overdone, but RGEM looks good to me for a GGEM-like solution. It's a sheared out mess ahead of the energy that is hanging back, which is the problem. Hopefully things turn around today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We can still do ok with energy hanging back like we saw on 3/19/92 as long as the lead low is strong enough to get farther north instead of having too much confluence to the north with a more suppressed storm. That was the last time NYC saw a warning level snow event so late in the season. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us0319.php That storm was forecast to change to rain and never did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 200mb DLM http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12®ion=we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That storm was forecast to change to rain and never did It did indeed rain in central NJ. Wasn't enough snow to cancel schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z gefs has .75+ for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It did indeed rain in central NJ. Wasn't enough snow to cancel schools. I do recall hearing on the noaa radio obs that morning that TTN was raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some nice hits on the 6z ensembles, most don't leave the energy behind any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It did indeed rain in central NJ. Wasn't enough snow to cancel schools. Had about 7" in linden and school was canceled (first snow day in about 3 years). 3 days later we had about 3-4" more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some nice hits on the 6z ensembles, most don't leave the energy behind any more. Some people are unnecessarily panicking over the sheered out models, trends were still great overnight and the SREF's delivered a top end MECS runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some people are unnecessarily panicking over the sheered out models, trends were still great overnight and the SREF's delivered a top end MECS runs as well When you consider where the nam was with the last sheared south event at this time frame it was way south of where it is now as was the GGEM I'm not sure NYC will be the bullseye but I highly doubt we are shutout either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some people are unnecessarily panicking over the sheered out models, trends were still great overnight and the SREF's delivered a top end MECS runs as well I wouldn't say unnecessarily. If you want a light to moderate event the gfs and euro have that and the other models could certaintly trend that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0z ggem ensemble mean is still showing 1 inch plus qpf for the nyc area. Very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When you consider where the nam was with the last sheared south event at this time frame it was way south of where it is now as was the GGEM I'm not sure NYC will be the bullseye but I highly doubt we are shutout either Guess we'll see today and tommorow. Would be nice to get a major event to cap off what has been an historic winter in east overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This should not be a repeat, its a different setup. I love the connection to gulf stream, enlongared strong trough(as the NAM depicts). NAM picks up on the mesoscale-like feautures, since we have gulf moisture, should get some convection if the NAM is right. I do understand why everyone is highly critical. Dont think the NWS wants to bust twice in less then a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This should not be a repeat, its a different setup. I love the connection to gulf stream, enlongared strong trough(as the NAM depicts). NAM picks up on the mesoscale-like feautures, since we have gulf moisture, should get some convection if the NAM is right. I do understand why everyone is highly critical. Dont think the NWS wants to bust twice in less then a month. By this point in that storm forecasts were out for 6-12"..all kinds of snow maps circulating..hype city. This one has been pretty tempered thus far (which is a good thing..no sense sounding the alarms just yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some people are unnecessarily panicking over the sheered out models, trends were still great overnight and the SREF's delivered a top end MECS runs as well Tempered caution with reasoning......let's commence the collective positive thinking for today's model runs and hope that luck is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Tempered caution with reasoning......let's commence the collective positive thinking for today's model runs and hope that luck is on our side. Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 By this point in that storm forecasts were out for 6-12"..all kinds of snow maps circulating..hype city. This one has been pretty tempered thus far (which is a good thing..no sense sounding the alarms just yet) Models by now were starting to trend south and the ggem and nam went way south and sheared out by now and the globals were steadily cutting back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 6-12"+ forecasts for March 3rd came out Thursday afternoon and evening runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing. So far we have seen either model show that much, for this storm. Too many jumped on those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 6-12"+ forecasts for March 3rd came out Thursday afternoon and evening runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing. So far we have seen either model show that much, for this storm. Too many jumped on those solutions.Its quite the opposite and on the same token i can see why the NWS offices are treading lightly here. The GFS/ EURO are still leaving a good bit of energy behind compared to the other globals and hi-res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.