Storm chaser Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro not as impressed as some of the others I guess. Don't get me wrong a few inches would be nice anyway but when U see all these these 12+ Runs Im holding out hope for something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Interesting thing is that the ECM is the furthest south of all guidance. Even the suppressed Navgem is more north with the precipitation shield then the ECM... Perhaps a red flag for the ECM IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 EURO is the outlier at this point. Everyone take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some positive insight.....the euro always seems to either stand it's ground and be correct, or slowly shift to a solution and then have a run where it completely caves afterward. It may be doing just that. Let's give it until tomorrow's runs and see what happens Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 EURO is the outlier at this point. Everyone take a deep breath. The GGEM was a southern outlier for a while on the 3/2-3 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GGEM was a southern outlier for a while on the 3/2-3 threat. There was never this stark of a difference between the GGEM & the other models that time. This time, the Euro is TRULY in her own camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 There was never this stark of a difference between the GGEM & the other models that time. This time, the Euro is TRULY in her own camp. Yes there was. The ggem was basically a frontal passage for us and the gfs/euro showed a ton of overrunning snow at the time. Anyway, the Euro is an outlier right now but still has the best verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro is not that dissimilar from GFS, a little drier but is still a decent event, especially just south of the city. Per wonder maps looks like 4-8" CNJ south, 2 - 4" NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes there was. The ggem was basically a frontal passage for us and the gfs/euro showed a ton of overrunning snow at the time. Anyway, the Euro is an outlier right now but still has the best verification scores. The nam, GFS, GGEM are all in the same camp along with the JMA and DG, and euro is alone. That scenario was NOT the case early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The nam, GFS, GGEM are all in the same camp along with the JMA and DG, and euro is alone. That scenario was NOT the case early March. Might as well throw in the navgem, but the Ukie is def Euro like so that's really not the combo you want against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Might as well throw in the navgem, but the Ukie is def Euro like so that's really not the combo you want against us. Ensembles for Euro trended in our favor today. We are also in the 'not so euro' range for accuracy. So I'm not concerned. The UKMET trended better as well. SREF's were great all day. Tomorrow 00z's are gonna be fuuuuun ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Srefs are sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREFS look like a high end MECS. They eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREFS look like a high end MECS. They eject the whole thing 1.5" qpf thru 87 and still going The plume will be epic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The plume will be epic lol The setup can't get much better than this for our area. Need to see this look on the gfs and euro soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 mother-of-god impending-crushing on the 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The moisture feed is directly from the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 06Z NAM brings nearly 2.00" QPF into Long Island, not all of it snow, with even more precipitation to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Someone in the east is going to see quite the snowstorm. By 12Z Sunday, the RGEM has a 996 mb low already over Little Rock, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has 5 inches at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I am really thinking this is a top 5 snowfall ever for NYC and LI with 18-20 inches region wide. 25 inches is doable with this. I just listened to Wxrisk, "This week in weather" and it looks like 6-8 more weeks of full winter conditions through end of April. I think we are in a 1 in 300 year event, when the next six weeks are looked back. I think we get to number 1 snow season, if we can get two feet of snow on Monday, with 1.5-2.00 inch QPF and 12 to 1 ratios with temps in 25-30 degree range. Maybe 6-8 hours of 2 inch plus per hour snows..... This is looking very real right now.... Of the 51 European model ensemble members, a few show something like this while a few show nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro ensemble mean has 5 inches at Central Park. The globals were less than enthralling overnight, with the exception being the GDPS (Canadian) and it has cooled off the major impact it advertised previously. Troubling IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The models will come into better agreement today most likely, the Nam is almost too wrapped up, it would be a snow to sleet storm as surface stays cold but it warms aloft. Still not buying it until tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The globals were less than enthralling overnight, with the exception being the GDPS (Canadian) and it has cooled off the major impact it advertised previously. Troubling IMO.... Trouble not. Models all came in better overnight, excluding the Euro...which is still trending in the right direction, albeit slowly. The GFS shows 6-10" as of the 00z's. I'd say we are gonna get some kinda snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Farmers and ranchers have an appropriate expression: "meat ain't meat until it's in the pan." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Trouble not. Models all came in better overnight, excluding the Euro...which is still trending in the right direction, albeit slowly. The GFS shows 6-10" as of the 00z's. I'd say we are gonna get some kinda snowstorm. Don't agree. Without a complete phase we end up with this unfortunately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't agree. Without a complete phase we end up with this unfortunately.... p120i.gif Yeah, but we won't. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Trouble not. Models all came in better overnight, excluding the Euro...which is still trending in the right direction, albeit slowly. The GFS shows 6-10" as of the 00z's. I'd say we are gonna get some kinda snowstorm. Agree. The Euro is the driest out of the bunch and it has been doing a terrible job this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Man the 6z RGEM is amazing @ 54 hours. Seems like the mesoscale models are more NW while the globals except for the JMA & GGEM are a bit more strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, but we won't. :-) Agree. The Euro is the driest out of the bunch and it has been doing a terrible job this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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