nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Can you link or paste Upton's latest? On my phone here With pleasure: MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DEVIATE RIGHT OFF THE BAT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON FRI AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE INTERACTION OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. SUNYSB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS LENDING TO LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AS THE TWO STREAMS MERGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE ONE STRONG INDICATOR OF THIS ANALYSIS IS THAT THE EC/GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE ALL INDICATING A TRACK FURTHER N THAN WHAT THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING. THE CMC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST N WITH THE SYSTEM...SO HAVE WEIGHTED THIS WITH WPC`S GUIDANCE AS IT FIT THE SCENARIO. WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...TODAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N...WHICH IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Actually, nothing new from NWS-NYC since the regular ~4 pm AFD, which said... WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...TODAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N...WHICH IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT...AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N DOES THE CENTER OF THE LOW (AND THE HIGHER QPF VALUES) GET. TIMING IS ALSO AN ISSUE. Updated at 1018p AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1018 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 ggem can't lie such a pretty sight 3 days out! maybe its my inner weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Closer view of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GEFS looks great, no energy held back on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Actually, nothing new from NWS-NYC since the regular ~4 pm AFD, which said... WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...TODAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N...WHICH IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT...AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N DOES THE CENTER OF THE LOW (AND THE HIGHER QPF VALUES) GET. TIMING IS ALSO AN ISSUE. Updated at 1018p AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1018 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 The text we both quoted was from 4:37 pm today - go back and look at the link, below. At 10:18 pm, they only updated the aviation and marine sections of the AFD - you can see what they updated by clicking on the "highlight changed disussion" hotlink at the top of any AFD page. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is just too much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nam looks similar to GGEM but would likely add several more inches after 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is looking like a 12-15 inch potential and a very strong potential right now. Looking almost like a certainty to imminent now for 3/17. This could be one in 30 year event.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 anyone staying up and doing pbp on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Is anyone doing the euro pbp? Only the biggest run since Snow88 began running the euro out of his basement. Good vibes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Are you sure you're not thinking of the March 1993 Superstorm, where a ton of sleet fell, holding accumulations in most of the immediate NYC area down to 10-14" vs. 24"+ where it was all snow? I live 30 miles SW of NYC and don't recall much if any sleet on 2/17/03 - thought the sleet was confined to Monmouth and south of there, as per Ray's archive... http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03.html No, in 93 we got about 24" of snow in the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is looking like a 12-15 inch potential and a very strong potential right now. Looking almost like a certainty to imminent now for 3/17. This could be one in 30 year event.......... Sure you don't want to lead with a question? I.e., "Anyone think this will be a 12-15" event?" Also, where us the patented hunch or bet? C'mon Hobbyist, you're losing your mojo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro anyone? I think I speak for a lot of people in here when I say I'm ready for spring, but it would be pretty awesome to end winter with a nice BANG! Especially a winter of the magnitude that we just had. We've had so much luck this winter season it just seems like it can't possibly end with two storms completely defying that luck. With that said, this will surely find a way to bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Do you think we can dethrone 3/1956 or 3/1993 blizzards for Long Island ??? I don't think we will beat 3/1888 ? I am going with 12-15 inch snow for LI that may last for two weeks with Arctic cold locked in from 3/17-3/30 most of the time... Better, but not quite what we've come to expect from you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 You guys have the best PBP with the EURO and most models, so is Yanks or Snow here to do it? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 3 days away...not a bad spot...awaiting the GGEM If the past month has taught anybody anything it should be weather events should be measured not in days, but in dog years. Three days is as capricious and open-ended as three weeks with chaotic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only out to 48 hrs on Wx Bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro so far looks similar to the NAM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Better, but not quite what we've come to expect from you... Don't sell it short two weeks of arctic cold last two weeks of march is a heck of a wishcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To me through 72 it is looking pretty good. Can anyone confirm or deny that. EDIT Might have spoken to soon. Definitely not looking like the other models at this point. Who knows really at this point, we have another 2 days of important model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 To me through 72 it is looking pretty good. Can anyone confirm or deny that.what site r u using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hr 78 Light snows across southern PA with a 1005 mb low along hatteras.. IMO this is going to look nothing like the NAM/GGEM or the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Seemed to look like the NAM through 48, but the precip just does not expand into the area like the other models. DC through SNJ 3-5" Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Dr No's revenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hr 84 light snows into NYC and light to moderate south east pa and south central jersey south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hrs 90-96 light snows across the area with light to moderate south central pa @ 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like 2-4" NNJ/NYC, 3-5" CNJ/LI, and 6-10" DC through SNJ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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