jets Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Damn it was so close to a major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It trended better on this run. GFS is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Something's in the water at NCEP tonight...globals, your move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its the stronger shortwave in New Mexico on the GFS when compared to the NAM which makes it bury the main 500mb low...So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 this run is perfect. Less warm air intrusion. Take what you can get. doubt it gets much better than this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Its the stronger shortwave in New Mexico on the GFS when compared to the NAM which makes it bury the main 500mb low...So close. So interesting, how in certain instances, stronger, can lead to 'weaker'. In the end we arent taking baby stapes , we r taking major steps towards an MECS today. Strong suspicion EURO will follow in step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 this run is perfect. Less warm air intrusion. Take what you can get. doubt it gets much better than this run. It can if all the energy phases in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'd love for all that energy strewn about the Eastern Seaboard to consolidate into one dominant low to allay PV concerns. Even at hour 36, the differences between the NAM and the GFS are noticeable with both the southern disturbance and the Pacific shortwave. I know one red tagger pointed out that the NAM should theoretically have the upper hand with smaller-scale features in the short range, so I'll run with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol are you really mentioning this as a possible blizzard of 96 redux ?! Lol lets not get carried away Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It can if all the energy phases in. then you'll start flirting with temp issues, especially @ the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Please be cautious, the previous storm shifted 500 miles 48hrs prior to non-arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 3 days away...not a bad spot...awaiting the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 then you'll start flirting with temp issues, especially @ the mid levels. I will take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 this run is perfect. Less warm air intrusion. Take what you can get. doubt it gets much better than this run. Exactly. There's a reason we only get 12" snowfalls every 4 years, on average, in Central Park, and only 5, ever, in March. People should be ecstatic with the trends tonight, not whining about it not being a NESIS Cat 5 storm, especially given that it could still end up mostly missing us or bringing in more warm air for sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I will take my chances with that. I agree full phase is protection against a beastly PV. But you also need the blocking, hence the conundrum. but 72 hrs out and we r trending in the right direction. If we trend at same % tomorrow we will all be licking our chops come this time tomorrow. Lets face it tomorrow, in all likelyhood is howdown day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Please be cautious, the previous storm shifted 500 miles 48hrs prior to non-arrival. there's more room for non suppressed idea. The pv isn't one big concentric buzzsaw. It's elongated and NE of us, with HP on the back side throwing down the cold air. the modeled RH fields are completely different than the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hey keep in mind folks... This looks like a Sunday Night - Monday event yeah? Remember the continuous GFS runs showing widespread 12"+? That started trending AWAY at 12z that Friday beforehand... Obviously each storm is different... But tomorrow night if the GFS shows a similar solution as tonight I wouldnt be using references to the storm a few weeks ago that was a miss.. (Although things do obviously change... Saturday will be just as important)Either way, in this case trend is our friend on the NCEP models. Thinking 3-6"+ is definitely realistic at this point for the metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 00z GGEM! Brings out most of the energy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM isn't last night's epic run, but it was a big improvement from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hey keep in mind folks... This looks like a Sunday Night - Monday event yeah? Remember the continuous GFS runs showing widespread 12"+? That started trending AWAY at 12z that Friday beforehand... Obviously each storm is different... But tomorrow night if the GFS shows a similar solution as tonight I wouldnt be using references to the storm a few weeks ago that was a miss.. (Although things do obviously change... Saturday will be just as important) Either way, in this case trend is our friend on the NCEP models. Thinking 3-6"+ is definitely realistic at this point for the metro... Thats a fair presumption at this point, not so much because im sold on the Nam or GFS per se but because GGEM and CMC have been solid ( though 1 is discounted as outlier by UPTON earlier). But Outlier or not when a model is being consistent 1 has to ask why others are going in that direction. Also bear in mind almost ALL QPF is from over running which is a great thing and produces a climotogoical MECS. Now just imagine if the SLP drives up the coast following that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM isn't last night's epic run, but it was a big improvement from 12z is it done? if so whats the QPF looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM isn't last night's epic run, but it was a big improvement from 12z I would say 0z is about 20-25mm for NYC. Right around 1" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Maps or it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Big hit on the GGEM. It doesn't leave back any energy. Phases everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Also along with the highly bullish GGEM and NAM ( and increasingly the GFS) do NOT forget the Ensembles means of the Euro and GFS that are more bullish than the ops. I know we r gun shy after last 2-3 events but , at this point, it IS looking good, Uptin has accordingly gotten more confident in verbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I really wish I could give in to these runs but 3-4 days seems like an eternity, damn this hobby is worse than being on drugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 84, 96, 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Also along with the highly bullish GGEM and NAM ( and increasingly the GFS) do NOT forget the Ensembles means of the Euro and GFS that are more bullish than the ops. I know we r gun shy after last 2-3 events but , at this point, it IS looking good, Uptin has accordingly gotten more confident in verbage. Can you link or paste Upton's latest? On my phone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Can you link or paste Upton's latest? On my phone here Actually, nothing new from NWS-NYC since the regular ~4 pm AFD, which said... WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DATA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...TODAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N...WHICH IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT...AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N DOES THE CENTER OF THE LOW (AND THE HIGHER QPF VALUES) GET. TIMING IS ALSO AN ISSUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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