Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Was looking at individual members. Also the control run wasn't as good. True about the Control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Euro ensembles have a really good, consolidated look with a 1008mb low emerging from the Deep South to OBX around 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's going to have to thread an increasingly narrowing needle given no blocking and climo. I suppose it's possible we get snow from this but I would hedge against it for now. This setup looks rather favorable, even for sections further south and east, and along the coast. When referring to climo around this time of the year, one is typically implying temp/p-type issues, however, at least one thing is very clear at this point, and that is an artic airmass will be entrenched over the Great Lakes, to the Northeast. So while normally I'd agree that climo is working against us, I'm much less concerned about it in this pattern. What I am concerned about is timing, and getting the vort to eject early enough such that it is not completely suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So I just looked at the individuals, 29 00z Euro ensemble members have 3" or more of snow at KLGA post day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am pretty sure, the climo arugument is not as useful this winter. Having a strong PV to your north, in any month, will produce condusive conditions for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am pretty sure, the climo arugument is not as useful this winter. Having a strong PV to your north, in any month, will produce condusive conditions for snow. I can assure you a strong PV not matter its strength will NOT produce snow along the coast in the summer months Any way setup looks pretty good right now, we just have to iron out the timing and strength of the shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am pretty sure, the climo arugument is not as useful this winter. Having a strong PV to your north, in any month, will produce condusive conditions for snow. A too strong PV will crush a storm to the south, which is what happened twice this winter. Figuring out the lobes and vorts rotating around the PV is the most difficult part of forecasting large storms where one is present. A badly placed lobe can crush a storm easily, as is what happened a week and a half ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am mostly worried about suppression with this one. I think the cold air will be there, I just worry that the PV could keep it south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Off topic but I surely hope no one from this forum was in East Harlem about 30-40 minutes ago. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 this is the time of year when it snows with a temperature of 40 degrees...If the wave tracks in the right spot it will snow...If not wave goodbye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 A too strong PV will crush a storm to the south, which is what happened twice this winter. Figuring out the lobes and vorts rotating around the PV is the most difficult part of forecasting large storms where one is present. A badly placed lobe can crush a storm easily, as is what happened a week and a half ago. Which can easily happen in January too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Off topic but I surely hope no one from this forum was in East Harlem about 30-40 minutes ago. Geez.Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Elaborate? Look at the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Look at the banter thread. Nevermind just saw it on cbs2ny.com Back to the weather, suppression is a viable concern with this storm as the PV looks again to be far enough south to have adverse effects on the eventual strength and track of this storm. May cause some weenies around here to flashback 9 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Maybe it will snow in April this year lol. Suppression is a fear, yes. Lets hope the models trend favorable of the next few days, keeping the current depiction of the PV, the same(euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Suppression I think is the real fear here. I don't think mixing would be much of an issue if the storm was to become reality. The climo argument that is stated ad nauseum, doesn't really come into play when we have an anomalous airmass in place. There is nothing climo about the progged airmass, so the solution won't be either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Off topic but I surely hope no one from this forum was in East Harlem about 30-40 minutes ago. Geez. Terrible situation. Just got a text from my friend who works over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Maybe it will snow in April this year lol. Suppression is a fear, yes. Lets hope the models trend favorable of the next few days, keeping the current depiction of the PV, the same(euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Things will get more interesting later if the Euro comes in better looking like the NAM. But it's the NAM outside of its range. We need the energy underneath to be more consolidated so it doesn't get easily suppressed by the PV. The problem with the system that got suppressed last week was that it was too weak and strung out with the PV suppressed flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The GFS is holding that southern energy back a bit more. Not like the NAM, but nobody can say that's not expected... should be another "almost" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is almost there but not quite just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is almost there but not quite just yet. Any improvements from 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Any improvements from 00z? Yes. More digging and a little more interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 12z NAM versus 12z GFS You want this that southern stream wave to eject faster like the NAM shows, otherwise you can end up with something similar to what we're getting today. It's going to take a deep long wave trough that amplifies up the coast at exactly the right time to deliver the goods in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS is slowly caving, run by run...No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Very encouraging gfs run, hopefully the others show it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS did have very nice improvements, brushes with snow and a nice looking overall pattern/storm set-up for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You want this that southern stream wave to eject faster like the NAM shows, otherwise you can end up with something similar to what we're getting today. It's going to take a deep long wave trough that amplifies up the coast at exactly the right time to deliver the goods in this pattern. I disagree. Unless we can get a substantial system to form, any disturbance is going to be sheared off the southeast US coast. I'm looking for as much energy to consolidate as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I disagree. Unless we can get a substantial system to form, any disturbance is going to be sheared off the southeast US coast. I'm looking for as much energy to consolidate as possible. I'm confused by your comment. If this did eject into a powerful long wave trough with a deep system it wouldn't get sheared out. That's the beauty of phased systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm confused by your comment. If this did eject into a powerful long wave trough with a deep system it wouldn't get sheared out. That's the beauty of phased systems. Sorry, misunderstanding on my part. I thought you meant that dwindling piece of energy over Texas at hour 72. The NAM holds it back and phases it with the northern shortwave diving in, which would be helpful in amplifying the whole system imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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