DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Interesting start to the 0z suite. It did not dig as much and such, the whole precip shield was shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Joke ? Your first snowman based on the first amazing run of the NAM? Sent from my iPhone Of course im joking lol. Still snowing but take LR NAM FWIW... (Not much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This looks like the 00z GGEM, eventually the main ULL would come north, this was just WAA snows, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As is, the NAM is a 10-15" snowfall for most.....so therefore, as is, our chances of an inch or more of snow have been raised slightly Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 something tells me this storm WILL happen. And i'm not basing my prediction off the latest NAM run at all. I don't buy any of it yet. It's just that polar vortex suppression in late march is kind of crazy. It's just indicative of the cold winter we've had. It's a shame all of these on-air meteorologists are forced to make snow maps so early. They did horrible with the storm in early march, but I don't blame them a bit. The south trend was crazy. I'm not creating any snow map until at least very late tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 As is, the NAM is a 10-15" snowfall for most.....so therefore, as is, our chances of an inch or more of snow have been raised slightly Sent from my iPhone Lol you cant even see what happens with the second low, it could be even more....crazy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well folks, there's your NAM weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol you cant even see what happens with the second low, it could be even more....crazy run I'm thinking we just won't get both.....most likely the majority falls from the WAA, but geez....10"+. We have been NAM'd. NEXT ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol you cant even see what happens with the second low, it could be even more....crazy run Yes... PHL is a 1"QPF at HR 84, would most likely get close to 1.5" or more. Solid run. The thing to take away from this is that there were favorable conditions at H5 up till HR60, and that we get crushed post HR60 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like the UKMET with generally 1 consolidated low that redevelops (or will post 84 hrs) off the Mid Atl coast. Solid run. I hate being in the bullseye this far out cause we know it will change but this was nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well, at the very least the NAM and the SREFS keep it very interesting. Great start to the 0z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 something tells me this storm WILL happen. And i'm not basing my prediction off the latest NAM run at all. I don't buy any of it yet. It's just that polar vortex suppression in late march is kind of crazy. It's just indicative of the cold winter we've had. It's a shame all of these on-air meteorologists are forced to make snow maps so early. They did horrible with the storm in early march, but I don't blame them a bit. The south trend was crazy. I'm not creating any snow map until at least very late tomorrow night. thanks keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Low is still in North GA at 84. Would love to see it extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It is a good thing that no one is getting too hyped, saying we're in for 12"+, etc.....We've learned our lesson ! This one looks very promising for this time of year Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The Low is still in North GA at 84. Would love to see it extrapolated. Isnt that just what the DGEX will do for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's the NAM, so we all should know not to take it seriously unless other models come around to it. What was important was the energy phasing early over TX and spawning a strong low with lots of WAA, plus the PV retreating a little. South of I-195 would actually be going over to non-snow by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Isnt that just what the DGEX will do for you? Yea kinda. It uses GFS data too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0z Nam is a HECS. Impressive look at hour 84. What would make it a HECS? Because it's march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yea kinda. It uses GFS data too When you look at the 18z DGEX, its not hard to see how it delivers so well, being initialized with the 78 hr NAM... Such a great run. Just hope the rest of the suite holds suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What would make it a HECS? Because it's march? MECS more likely than a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 IMO the reason the NAM did this was because it didn't build the back side of the shortwave as south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What would make it a HECS? Because it's march? Well, verbatim the storm isn't over on the NAM, the main 500 ULL is still in E TN, it would likely redevelop like the Feb storm....FWIW. The GGEM did this last night, it sent a lot of moisture north out ahead of the low, then had a new low form as the 500mb ULL came N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At 48 hours the RGEM appears similar to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At 48 hours the RGEM appears similar to the nam For the most part, but I think there's more energy on the backside of the shortwave in New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 In my opinion the reason we saw the changes in the NAM is it doesn't bury the shortwave too far in the backside of the trough....note the differences in the GFS & NAM here...It also has stronger energy at the base of the trough screen shot screen shot capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 DEF improvements on the GFS thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Holy phase on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thats what I was looking for... Looking good. Key frames are next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hr 78 mod snow up to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS was so close to a NAM-like solution., if it had a bit less energy on the backside of the shortwave it would of ended up looking like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.