NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On the srefs, what do the dark blue, orange and red colors represent on the sea level pressure maps? On the 15Z panel they are north of the low pressure area. I believe it's supposed to represent the areas where the members are tracking the low - d-blue/orange/red indicate where most of the members are landing I believe. I think this will be suppressed. PV will overwhelm it it seems. This I can agree with at least for NW areas. The coast, 78 south etc however has a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think this will be suppressed. PV will overwhelm it it seems. book this, first storm cancel by SnoSki14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think this will be suppressed. PV will overwhelm it it seems. I think you are a good poster but the models seem to be having a hard time with location of the pv in this setup. Why are you thinking this is suppressed south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've seen this game before and it didn't turn out so good. The gfs was a bad sign and even nam too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I believe it's supposed to represent the areas where the members are tracking the low - d-blue/orange/red indicate where most of the members are landing I believe. This I can agree with at least for NW areas. The coast, 78 south etc however has a good chance. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've seen this game before and it didn't turn out so good. The gfs was a bad sign and even nam too. The 18Z runs? The 12 Z GFS ens. was well north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Other than the early March miss south all of our storms have come north this winter even with the pv pressing down i.e. the later month january storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've seen this game before and it didn't turn out so good. The gfs was a bad sign and even nam too. dude your weighting the 18z runs of the NAM and GFS with some dignity? man you're looking the wrong direction those are red headed step childs of our models. GREAT trends today and the PV doesn't look too overwhelming like last week.....yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Other than the early March miss south all of our storms have come north this winter even with the pv pressing down i.e. the later month january storm. not all the storms but some the north trend is frequently touted too much in here sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 not all the storms but some the north trend is frequently touted too much in here sometimes So is the inaccuracy of off hour gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've seen this game before and it didn't turn out so good. The gfs was a bad sign and even nam too.weren't both north of their earlier runs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've seen this game before and it didn't turn out so good. The gfs was a bad sign and even nam too. what does this even mean? what game, a storm being suppressed. thanks, Im pretty sure we have all seen that. You may end up being right, but it won't be because a storm 2 weeks ago was farther south than modeled. and the gfs at 18z was a lot more like 12z than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z runs are not garbage like many think, that's a myth. I'll agree about the Nam at least. We've seen the PV crush and shred systems and we may be seeing it again unfortunately due to the very anomalous pattern. Some blocking would slow things down and help with both the PV placement and phasing but were just relying on the PNA and southern energy which is def not consolidated enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 not all the storms but some the north trend is frequently touted too much in here sometimes agreed, storms have trended both north and south this year. I think people would be a lot better off not assuming something will happen because you remember it happening in the past, instead take this storm as it is, and discuss the features present this time that will lead to a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So is the inaccuracy of off hour gfs runs. touche my friend, It did improve though from its previous run, SnoSki14 is just being over cautious and rightfully so im not going to bash him just bust his plums some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 agreed, storms have trended both north and south this year. I think people would be a lot better off not assuming something will happen because you remember it happening in the past, instead take this storm as it is, and discuss the features present this time that will lead to a result. biggest key here is getting as much energy and ideally all of it ejected and the northern stream phasing at the right time coupled with the PV not being too suppressive and not on roids like last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 touche my friend, It did improve though from its previous run, SnoSki14 is just being over cautious and rightfully so im not going to bash him just bust his plums some.... Dont get me wrong, his "it happened once before so its gonna happen again" posts dont belong in a real discussion thread...i only posted that to not pass up a chance to throw that 18z stuff in there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z runs are not garbage like many think, that's a myth. I'll agree about the Nam at least. We've seen the PV crush and shred systems and we may be seeing it again unfortunately due to the very anomalous pattern. Some blocking would slow things down and help with both the PV placement and phasing but were just relying on the PNA and southern energy which is def not consolidated enough. this is a reasonable post, I agree with you about people summarily trashing 18z runs. You're right, blocking would definitely help here, and without it, we are "threading the needle" as they say. The good thing about this setup is that it doesn't have to be all or nothing, there is a possibility we get a decent thump with the front end (GGEM, gfs even) , even as the main storm stays pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Dont get me wrong, his "it happened once before so its gonna happen again" posts dont belong in a real discussion thread...i only posted that to not pass up a chance to throw that 18z stuff in there lol. I don't mean to totally dismiss the 18z but its typically not the best when you compare it to the 0z and 12z suite of the GFS and globals. BUT had it showed a PDII scenario it would be made sweet tender love to right now by the dedicated weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z runs are not garbage like many think, that's a myth. I'll agree about the Nam at least. We've seen the PV crush and shred systems and we may be seeing it again unfortunately due to the very anomalous pattern. Some blocking would slow things down and help with both the PV placement and phasing but were just relying on the PNA and southern energy which is def not consolidated enough. The modeled pv location looks great to me, doesn't look overpowering at all, we just need the energy out west to eject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Atleast we know snowmaps wont be out till sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z runs are not garbage like many think, that's a myth. I'll agree about the Nam at least. We've seen the PV crush and shred systems and we may be seeing it again unfortunately due to the very anomalous pattern. Some blocking would slow things down and help with both the PV placement and phasing but were just relying on the PNA and southern energy which is def not consolidated enough. It is not a myth. Here is the proof. The 6z and 18z runs are almost always the lowest performing of the GFS runs. This is because there is much less data going into those model runs than the 0z and 12z runs. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ For comparison purposes. The verification scores of 6z and 18z GFS runs are basically equivalent to using the NOGAPS at a 0z or 12z run of the NOGAPS, and NO one would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It is not a myth. Here is the proof. The 6z and 18z runs are almost always the lowest performing of the GFS runs. This is because there is much less data going into those model runs than the 0z and 12z runs. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ For comparison purposes. The verification scores of 6z and 18z GFS runs are basically equivalent to using the NOGAPS at a 0z or 12z run of the NOGAPS, and NO one would do that. In particular this winter the 06 and 18z runs have been especially bad it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It is not a myth. Here is the proof. The 6z and 18z runs are almost always the lowest performing of the GFS runs. This is because there is much less data going into those model runs than the 0z and 12z runs. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ For comparison purposes. The verification scores of 6z and 18z GFS runs are basically equivalent to using the NOGAPS at a 0z or 12z run of the NOGAPS, and NO one would do that. Is this true? It was my understanding that this is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Fwiw new gfs ens much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Fwiw new gfs ens much drier 18z GFS ensembles? yea lets not sweat them that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 check out the cpc threat looks good http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 check out the cpc threat looks good http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png pretty good sign that CPC sees the potential currently. if the 0z suite is big tonight tomorrow this place is going to be nothing short of a nuthouse full of weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Fwiw new gfs ens much drier .5+ for the SE half of the subforum..less nw obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 pretty good sign that CPC sees the potential currently. if the 0z suite is big tonight tomorrow this place is going to be nothing short of a nuthouse full of weenies It already is a nuthouse full of weenies..hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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