Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM has a better overall tilt to it @ 72 hours, It does look like the energy in Texas would likely split a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What is occurring is at 66 hours the energy on the backside of the trough is stronger than the energy in the front, so eventually the shortwave is forced to keeping digging while we get some WAA out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The first slug is farther south on the NAM than the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like on this NAM run the precip would be a miss south. The southern stream energy looks okay but is strung out and the PV is pressing down pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On the Euro Ensembles, the .50"+ line is through SWCT from wave 1 and there is more after for wave 2. The ensembles have less confluence to the north so we do better than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro 12z EPS control run was 2-6" from north to south over the region. 6"+ south of Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 #2 Analog over the east at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 #2 Analog over the east at 96 hours. The PV would have to relax more for the snow to make it as far north as that did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 #2 Analog over the east at 96 hours. There was a lot of sleet (i.e. warm mid-levels) with that storm pretty far north, and that was in mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The PV would have to relax more for the snow to make it as far north as that did. I clearly remember that storm being modeled as two separate 4-8" events a day apart roughly 5 days before when I was headed to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think by this point we were trending away from snow with the early March storm right? What early March storm? Early March was last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I clearly remember that storm being modeled as two separate 4-8" events a day apart roughly 5 days before when I was headed to Florida. Yeah wave 1 stayed south on Saturday while wave 2 took til Sunday night to arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There was a lot of sleet (i.e. warm mid-levels) with that storm pretty far north, and that was in mid-Feb. Guessing you were in Virginia for that one? I was in Daytona Beach. Came home to 24" plus. Not sure how much fell as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What early March storm? Early March was last week. 3/2-3/3..the models started pushing the PV further south by about 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Guessing you were in Virginia for that one? I was in Daytona Beach. Came home to 24" plus. Not sure how much fell as sleet. No sleet for most of central/northern nj..ended Monday night as some freezing drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Guessing you were in Virginia for that one? I was in Daytona Beach. Came home to 24" plus. Not sure how much fell as sleet. It sucked dude. We were getting blasted with snow that night (had to be 3-4" hour rates) only to wake up in the AM with heavy, HEAVY sleet. All day, must have accumulated to over 12". About 60 mi north it was mostly snow, where they got 30"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There was a lot of sleet (i.e. warm mid-levels) with that storm pretty far north, and that was in mid-Feb. I had maybe an hour of sleet mixed with snow, and ended up with 25". Not to say this will be anything like PDII, but the usual caveats about the mid level low tracks will apply as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It sucked dude. We were getting blasted with snow that night (had to be 3-4" hour rates) only to wake up in the AM with heavy, HEAVY sleet. All day, must have accumulated to over 12". About 60 mi north it was mostly snow, where they got 30"+. Being in Daytona Beach and watching it on the news sucked even more, although some would argue that being in Florida in February was not a bad place to be all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is 5.5 inches at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Can someone briefly explain what the forcing mechanism to keep the PV anchored over SE Canada would be with the upcoming potential low. I think some members have indicated a lowered NAO state, possibly neutral or is it due more to a transient 50/50 low? Also, as others have stated, this winter season has behaved a bit different than those of the recent past, but seeing storms crushed south due to a strong PV, in mid March, is impressive non the less. I've been following this forum and others for quite sometime, newer member and trying to learn as much as possible. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Can someone briefly explain what the forcing mechanism to keep the PV anchored over SE Canada would be with the upcoming potential low. I think some members have indicated a lowered NAO state, possibly neutral or is it due more to a transient 50/50 low? Also, as others have stated, this winter season has behaved a bit different than those of the recent past, but seeing storms crushed south due to a strong PV, in mid March, is impressive non the less. I've been following this forum and others for quite sometime, newer member and trying to learn as much as possible. Thanks in advance. Basically, its how it's set up shop in the stratosphere. That, and the -EPO/+PNA isn't allowing it to retrograde west. It's just sitting, spinning over hudson bay and dropping in from time to time over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z GFS seems to be at least holding serve through day 3. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 OMG. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS may try and cut off the energy over Texas. It's not as bad as 06z which cut off over Central Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 a lot less northern stream interaction this run…looks progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This is going to look similar to the Euro - Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 18z GFS seems to be at least holding serve through day 3. Good sign. I think lots of us have PV suppression jitters, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Light snow NYC south hour 84. Moderate snow Philly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 87 light snow overspreading the area. Light to moderate from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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