3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion

[rcad1]

I haven't seen any forecast with temps in the mid 40's and rain. All forecast I've seen have low 30's and a chance of snow. ...... Also nobody here said we were going to get 12" of snow.....

[PB GFI]

I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain

Monday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%  Thats Muttontown . 

[bluewave]

As much of an improvement as the southern stream is at 12z today, it still would be better if it consolidates quicker and is less sheared out. There's still time for improvements there along with the PV. If it's just a little more relaxed, we could have a nice storm.

 

Yeah, faster consolidation and less positilt /sheared would be better with an anomalous late season PV over SE Canada. 

[doncat]

I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain

Who is forecasting mid 40's with rain on Monday?

[IsentropicLift]

I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain

No serious poster here looks to the mainstream media for a forecast.

 

[jbenedet]

I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain

Mainstream news, music, as well as weather forecasts are garbage. I'll just leave it there.

[IsentropicLift]

How about the 12z JMA???

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Total QPF on the JMA through hour 120

 

[Heisy]

JMA is like the ideal track...

 

15z SREF looks really good @ 500mb FWIW

[NEG NAO]

Mount Holly is going along with WPC keeping most of the precip south of here 

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KPHI.html

[Heisy]

Lots of spread to the N on the srefs too I believe. 

[Heisy]

greenshot

[Heisy]

[RU848789]

I'll never understand the "I don't want to be in the bullseye" sentiment. I always want to be in the bullseye, unless one is talking about a specific model with a specific well known bias. The analogy I'll use is hurricane path projections and the "cone of uncertainty." Sure, 5 days out, the center of the cone still might not get hit, but it's much more likely than the edges of the cone being hit at 5 days out. Same here, I would think. Why would anyone want to have the model consensus with a track 300 miles south of here 5 days out? Of course, you can always have a 3/1 situation, where the trend was all in one direction, but I would think that's the exception.

I know there's a significant difference in the comparison, in that hurricane forecasts have initial conditions with an actual storm on the map and the models then predict the path of that actual storm, vs. winter storms, where the ultimate storm (especially if it's a coastal storm, i.e., there is no "storm off the Carolinas" 5 days out) often doesn't even take shape until 24-36 hours before the event, but even with winter storms, presumably one can at least track a kind of "cone of uncertainty" for the tracks of the pieces of energy that will eventually become the storm. Not sure why nobody does that or maybe the uncertainty is simply so high that the cone of uncertainty would be immense.

[IsentropicLift]

I don't often bust out the GEFS ensembles but look at where the greatest probability on the 12z GEFS for > 1.00" QPF in 6 hours or less. That's a pretty strong signal at this range for heavy snow.

 

 

[USCG RS]

Mainstream news, music, as well as weather forecasts are garbage. I'll just leave it there.

30" will hit DC to Boston.. Oh wait CNN forgot to verify the 13 year olds Facebook sources again

[jjvesnow]

SREFS are way north

[Ericjcrash]

I'll never understand the "I don't want to be in the bullseye" sentiment. I always want to be in the bullseye, unless one is talking about a specific model with a specific well known bias. The analogy I'll use is hurricane path projections and the "cone of uncertainty." Sure, 5 days out, the center of the cone still might not get hit, but it's much more likely than the edges of the cone being hit at 5 days out. Same here, I would think. Why would anyone want to have the model consensus with a track 300 miles south of here 5 days out? Of course, you can always have a 3/1 situation, where the trend was all in one direction, but I would think that's the exception.

I know there's a significant difference in the comparison, in that hurricane forecasts have initial conditions with an actual storm on the map and the models then predict the path of that actual storm, vs. winter storms, where the ultimate storm (especially if it's a coastal storm, i.e., there is no "storm off the Carolinas" 5 days out) often doesn't even take shape until 24-36 hours before the event, but even with winter storms, presumably one can at least track a kind of "cone of uncertainty" for the tracks of the pieces of energy that will eventually become the storm. Not sure why nobody does that or maybe the uncertainty is simply so high that the cone of uncertainty would be immense.

I couldn't agree more with that and I was just about to post it. It's such a weenie thing to say when things aren't modeled as one would want.

[PB GFI]

Mount Holly is going along with WPC keeping most of the precip south of here 

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KPHI.html

.WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO ALONG WITH THE LATEST WPC PROGS AND  

BRING HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS TO SRN NJ/DELMARVA/SE PA FOR SUN  

NGT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.   

 

May only be a tick or 2 away . We`ll see . 

[Animal]

Mount Holly is going along with WPC keeping most of the precip south of here

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KPHI.html

Correct call. Euro would need to have An epic bust . Only one model shows much of any snow for nyc and this model took huge steps south recently

[NortheastPAWx]

The SREFs were also way north with the 3/2-3 event. Just saying.

[REDMK6GLI]

Correct call. Euro would need to have An epic bust . Only one model shows much of any snow for nyc and this model took huge steps south recently

What? Have you been under a rock the whole day? All globals took a step towards the more powerful GGEM solution. Clear signals for atleast a moderate event for the area on most models. Your statement is SEVERELY flawed

[USCG RS]

I'll never understand the "I don't want to be in the bullseye" sentiment. I always want to be in the bullseye, unless one is talking about a specific model with a specific well known bias. The analogy I'll use is hurricane path projections and the "cone of uncertainty." Sure, 5 days out, the center of the cone still might not get hit, but it's much more likely than the edges of the cone being hit at 5 days out. Same here, I would think. Why would anyone want to have the model consensus with a track 300 miles south of here 5 days out? Of course, you can always have a 3/1 situation, where the trend was all in one direction, but I would think that's the exception.

I know there's a significant difference in the comparison, in that hurricane forecasts have initial conditions with an actual storm on the map and the models then predict the path of that actual storm, vs. winter storms, where the ultimate storm (especially if it's a coastal storm, i.e., there is no "storm off the Carolinas" 5 days out) often doesn't even take shape until 24-36 hours before the event, but even with winter storms, presumably one can at least track a kind of "cone of uncertainty" for the tracks of the pieces of energy that will eventually become the storm. Not sure why nobody does that or maybe the uncertainty is simply so high that the cone of uncertainty would be immense.

Two completely different systems in respect to cone of uncertainty. As you alluded to, the storm is yet to develop and this creates huge differences with respect to tracking and predicting where the storm will head. With hurricanes, you need to deal with core changes, eye wall replacement cycles, shear and more and this all affect the track as well. Furthermore, snow storms have a much different impact area than just a tight hurricane circulation, and therefore a cone of uncertainty, as you said, would be far too immense. There are a myriad of other differences, but that would be a very hard feat.

[jbenedet]

30" will hit DC to Boston.. Oh wait CNN forgot to verify the 13 year olds Facebook sources again

Haha. Nice.

[USCG RS]

Haha. Nice.

Hey brother, what's your thinking with this storm?

[jm1220]

Correct call. Euro would need to have An epic bust . Only one model shows much of any snow for nyc and this model took huge steps south recently

You haven't been paying attention at all to the developments at 12z then. Pay attention to something other than the QPF panels.

[IsentropicLift]

The 15z SREF is way NW. Already 0.25"+ through only hour 87.

[jbenedet]

Something tells me Mt. Holly and particularly Upton are still recovering from the forecasts busts earlier this month.

 

SREF continues to look good as some already noted. I'm not nearly as interested in the qpf as I am with H500 earlier in the run. Good to see significant spread on the north side of the mslp as well.

[jjvesnow]

The 15z SREF is way NW. Already 0.25"+ through only hour 87.

Wayyy north!! Look at the precip probs.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Wayyy north!! Look at the precip probs.

 

I know, the nice thing here is that if they are too far NW we still have some wiggle room here.