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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Still light snow at hr 102 waves are strung out. Still looks better then 00z

The trend is good but sheared out/weak has been a trend this winter also. The PV could easily act to suppress and shear out what comes in even if it's a strong wave of moisture. The dry air around the PV could eat it up like nothing. Hopefully following runs keep coming north and weaken the PV a little more.

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Lots of work to be done still. I'm still not particularly excited, especially for up here... let's hope for continued improvements. That said, here's a quick analysis of that upper disturbance out west we're all watching intently.

 

12z NAM for 2 pm hour:

 

BEo7jdw.png

 

12z GFS for 2 pm:

 

r719PSd.png

 

And current analysis for 2 pm (based on RAP initialization I'm sure, correct me if I'm wrong):

 

RJZ1Yb3.gif

 

Finally, water vapor imagery:

 

WNP1efH.gif

 

I don't see any major discrepancies but it looks to me like the NAM has a slightly better handle on the vortmax strength and location. I could be completely off the mark, but you guys can take a look and decide for yourselves.

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Euro is further north but still not good for anyone in this area. Barely gets any precip up here through hour 102.

 

When you look at the handling of the mid and upper levels, it becomes fairly clear that there was a major step towards the Canadian idea with the initial wave. That's what has my interest. 

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I won't be excited for this until Saturday, there's still plenty of improvements that need to be made.

 

This is true, but it is also true that rather major improvements were made by the GFS and Euro.  The ensemble means of the GFS and Canadian are really impressive and agree.  Now we await the Euro ensemble mean.

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When you look at the handling of the mid and upper levels, it becomes fairly clear that there was a major step towards the Canadian idea with the initial wave. That's what has my interest. 

 

Yeah. But it's not like the euro hasn't had this.

It showed a better solution on yesterday's 12z run and on Tuesday's 12z run.

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Yeah. But it's not like the euro hasn't had this.

It showed a better solution on yesterday's 12z run and on Tuesday's 12z run.

But of all the globals surprisingly the EURO has been the most inconsistent in its run-to-run consistency, very un-EURO like to say the least where as the GGEM has been leading the way on the big snowstorm idea the past few days

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The thing to be careful of in future runs is how much confluence sets up over New England. 

Notice how the Euro and GGEM handle the southern stream fairly similarly. The reason

the Euro has less snow is that the PV is a little further south.

 

 

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The thing to be careful of in future runs is how much confluence sets up over New England. 

Notice how the Euro and GGEM handle the southern stream fairly similarly. The reason

the Euro has less snow is that the PV is a little further south.

 

attachicon.giff72.gif

 

attachicon.giff72E.gif

As much of an improvement as the southern stream is at 12z today, it still would be better if it consolidates quicker and is less sheared out. There's still time for improvements there along with the PV. If it's just a little more relaxed, we could have a nice storm.

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