Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hr 96 light snow up to ct Steady snow to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Disagree. It will end up flatter than that. It split the energy after I wrote that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 still pretty much a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The Euro is caving a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro is further north but still not good for anyone in this area. Barely gets any precip up here through hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Major improvements with the way it handled the energy out west. That's enough right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Still light snow at hr 102 waves are strung out. Still looks better then 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro is further north but still not good for anyone in this area. Barely gets any precip up here through hour 102. I'd rather not be in the bulls eye at day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You don't wanna be in the bullseye right now as we've learned last time so I'll take the improvements and go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Bulk of the energy still hangs back over Western Gulf coast at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Still light snow at hr 102 waves are strung out. Still looks better then 00z The trend is good but sheared out/weak has been a trend this winter also. The PV could easily act to suppress and shear out what comes in even if it's a strong wave of moisture. The dry air around the PV could eat it up like nothing. Hopefully following runs keep coming north and weaken the PV a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Great step in right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 is that good bro? i see u in treton2. how much u think we getting? Keep the How much for Trenton questions out of the analysis thread please and read along with the play by plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Let's see if the Euro ensemble mean does the same as all the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Just look at the precip expansion at 96 at 12z vs 108 at 0z , it`s center is 100 mile NW . another tick like that . i will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Would like too see the ensembles jump north. Improvements on all models, some major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lots of work to be done still. I'm still not particularly excited, especially for up here... let's hope for continued improvements. That said, here's a quick analysis of that upper disturbance out west we're all watching intently. 12z NAM for 2 pm hour: 12z GFS for 2 pm: And current analysis for 2 pm (based on RAP initialization I'm sure, correct me if I'm wrong): Finally, water vapor imagery: I don't see any major discrepancies but it looks to me like the NAM has a slightly better handle on the vortmax strength and location. I could be completely off the mark, but you guys can take a look and decide for yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro is further north but still not good for anyone in this area. Barely gets any precip up here through hour 102. When you look at the handling of the mid and upper levels, it becomes fairly clear that there was a major step towards the Canadian idea with the initial wave. That's what has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Would like too see the ensembles jump north. Improvements on all models, some major GGEM and GFS ensembles are all major hits here. If the Euro ensembles also jump north at 12z it's a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I won't be excited for this until Saturday, there's still plenty of improvements that need to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I won't be excited for this until Saturday, there's still plenty of improvements that need to be made. This is true, but it is also true that rather major improvements were made by the GFS and Euro. The ensemble means of the GFS and Canadian are really impressive and agree. Now we await the Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Tick north on the major globals on top of today and its a widespread 12"+ storm for mid march. Impressive to say the least and would be the correct way to finish off one of our historically better winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 When you look at the handling of the mid and upper levels, it becomes fairly clear that there was a major step towards the Canadian idea with the initial wave. That's what has my interest. Yeah. But it's not like the euro hasn't had this. It showed a better solution on yesterday's 12z run and on Tuesday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yeah. But it's not like the euro hasn't had this. It showed a better solution on yesterday's 12z run and on Tuesday's 12z run. But of all the globals surprisingly the EURO has been the most inconsistent in its run-to-run consistency, very un-EURO like to say the least where as the GGEM has been leading the way on the big snowstorm idea the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The thing to be careful of in future runs is how much confluence sets up over New England. Notice how the Euro and GGEM handle the southern stream fairly similarly. The reason the Euro has less snow is that the PV is a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Models agreeing more on how to handle the energy, but not on the PV. I am interested to see if the NAM/SREF retain their looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The thing to be careful of in future runs is how much confluence sets up over New England. Notice how the Euro and GGEM handle the southern stream fairly similarly. The reason the Euro has less snow is that the PV is a little further south. f72.gif f72E.gif As much of an improvement as the southern stream is at 12z today, it still would be better if it consolidates quicker and is less sheared out. There's still time for improvements there along with the PV. If it's just a little more relaxed, we could have a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Don't forget how the Canadian was the only model to show the last storm (not yesterday's, the one before) missing us way South all along, well before any of the other models. Let's hope it scores another coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I see a lot of talk here with 12"+ snow but im seeing the mainstream reports telling something else altogether. Temps int he mid 40's with rain Your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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