IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Canadian ensembles are north with tons of precipitation. 1"+ liquid for anybody NYC southward. You're not kidding, 1"+ contour NW of MMU on the mean. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 How does 500mb look overall, especially with the trailing wave in the south? Does it look like it comes N or do we get most of the moisture from the initial slug? The mean looks split on the second wave but lots of precipitation with the first wave. Almost identical to the 00z ensembles in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Anyone who doesn't see that the GFS caved 90% to the GGEM needs to have his head examined. The GGEM moved a bit south, the GFS went from essentially a sheared out nothing storm to something very close to delivering a significant storm to the whole area. The ensembles for the GFS also went hugely north. I think those of us further in the NW are alarmed as the GGEM went from 12-18" to like 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think those of us further in the NW are alarmed as the GGEM went from 12-18" to like 2-4". The PV orientation is what will kill or make this event for everybody north of the M/D line. If it's oriented badly like last time, we get a crushed to nothing storm. But we also need it for cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Very good trends thus far with the 12z suite, especially with the ensembles being north of the OP. I remain cautiously optimistic and will wait till tomorrow night's 00z before totally jumping on board. Up next the EURO. Got a feeling it will show something similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro is pretty obviously different at 42 hours...slower with the lead shortwave and not as aggressive with the Pac energy. Similar changes as we saw on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ECMWF noticeably better through hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Huge differences at hour 54, instead of burying the energy into Mexico it's ejecting the energy eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 we have no wiggle room on the gfes. narrow area of heavy snow which could be north or south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think by this point we were trending away from snow with the early March storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Canadian ensembles are north with tons of precipitation. 1"+ liquid for anybody NYC southward. Yeah, was surprised to see this. Pretty amazing to have the ensemble mean that much more impressive than the operational run. This is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think by this point we were trending away from snow with the early March storm right? No not til friday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think by this point we were trending away from snow with the early March storm right?Yes models started going the way of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hr 60 looks pretty promising..should at the very least be farther north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 60 big storm blowing up over the southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Climo says this thing will come north this time of year, besides I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye of the storm this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 60 big storm blowing up over the southern plains Did it eject all the energy out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lot more phasing going on in the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think by this point we were trending away from snow with the early March storm right? I may be off a little but I think the trends started with the Thurs night 0z runs and continued all the way through Friday, etc, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ejecting east at hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 72 low over Arkansas. Light years better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z Euro energy more consolidated at 72hr than the 0z run. PV elongating west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Pv is more elongated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro is worlds better. Not sure it will be a huge solution...but a bump towards the amplified models for sure through 78 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 84 snow up to DCA, heights rising a long the coast. Looking a lot more consolidated than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamal Jones Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 i know its early but if u had to take an educated guess how much snow we gunna get in trenton? like only like 3 inches or does this look like a storm wit some major balls thats gunna give us like 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hr 90 light snow up to Phl Mod snow dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 84 snow up to DCA, heights rising a long the coast. Looking a lot more consolidated than the GGEM. Disagree. It will end up flatter than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Snow finally moving in hour 96, got a little worried their for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hr 90 light snow up to Phl Mod snow dca Indeed its moving north from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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