WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GEFS are a huge hit...very far north and wet. Wow thats a nice signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 looks like the models are beginning to come to a more reasonable accurate solution here - GFS moved towards a wetter/whiter further north solution and the GGEM moved to a more reasonable solution - looks like a moderate event at least IMO - Euro should be interesting and also move in a more favorable direction - the PV placement is critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF kissing Sandy Hook on the GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 .8"QPF for NYC. .9" QPF for TTN. Solid. Fluctuations on the PV will decide as much as anything what impacts we see up here. There could be a great moisture plume but if the PV becomes another Hulk like on March 3, it could shred and crush it all south. Vice versa, if it lifts north a little we would see both parts of the storm and a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Seems like qpf wise gefs and ggem match up. Pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Fluctuations on the PV will decide as much as anything what impacts we see up here. There could be a great moisture plume but if the PV becomes another Hulk like on March 3, it could shred and crush it all south. Vice versa, if it lifts north a little we would see both parts of the storm and a huge hit. I like that we're 3-4 days out and not 6-7 and models seem to be trending towards snow not away from it. If the euro gets on board we'll have decent consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF IMO is more like a SECS and not a HECS like yesterday and last nights GGEM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF IMO is more like a SECS and not a HECS like yesterday and last nights GGEM runs. Yep 10" snowfalls in late March happen all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF IMO is more like a SECS and not a HECS like yesterday and last nights GGEM runs. I'll be really happy with 6" at this point, that's way better than almost nothing like we've seen over nearly a month. Like Don's data says, the frequency of 10"+ snowfall are very rare beyond March 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF IMO is more like a SECS and not a HECS like yesterday and last nights GGEM runs. Yea secs is more realisit but for this time of year 1" of frozen would be pretty epic. However if this pans out i think there will be a lot of moisture to work with and getting into nam range will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Imo anytime snow accumulates more than 8 inches is pretty major. Secs is more like 4-6 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1" QPF IMO is more like a SECS and not a HECS like yesterday and last nights GGEM runs. 1" QPF is considered a MECS for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WxBell maps show 2-4" for LHV and far NW areas. 6-9" on a line from TTN to Sandy Hook and the south shore of LI. 10"+ south of I-78 and points SW including Philly, DC, Baltimore and Atlantic City. (12z GGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Even the village idiot model (NAVGEM) ticked north. Gets steady precip to about High Point, NJ. Would be shocked if the Euro didn't come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yep 10" snowfalls in late March happen all the time Didnt mean it that way. 10" @10:1 ratios IMO isnt a huge deal, but its a matter of opinion from my point of view thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WxBell maps show 2-4" for LHV and far NW areas. 6-9" on a line from TTN to Sandy Hook and the south shore of LI. 10"+ south of I-78 and points SW including Philly, DC, Baltimore and Atlantic City. (12z GGEM) Eh? TTN gets less than areas to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Eh? TTN gets less than areas to the north? You didn't read that correctly at all. TTN I said is 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You didn't read that correctly at all. TTN I said is 6-9". And north of there is 10+ (south of I-78) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You didn't read that correctly at all. TTN I said is 6-9". except ttn is south of 78 but i digress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 And north of there is 10+ (south of I-78) Jeeze The 10"+ contour is literally right on top of or just south of TTN Might I add, who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WxBell maps show 2-4" for LHV and far NW areas. 6-9" on a line from TTN to Sandy Hook and the south shore of LI. 10"+ south of I-78 and points SW including Philly, DC, Baltimore and Atlantic City. (12z GGEM) Sounds like big steps towards the gfs model. Not much for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Jeeze The 10"+ contour is literally right on top of or just south of TTN Might I add, who cares? Um TTN is nowhere near I-78..perhaps you meant I-195? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Should have said 195 probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 12z individual GFS runs on ewall have seriously caved from 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Sounds like big steps towards the gfs model. Not much for the interior. Lmao. Yes, the GGEM is caving to the GFS. They are converging in the middle as many here predicted. (leaning more towards GGEM in actuality) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Canadian ensembles are north with tons of precipitation. 1"+ liquid for anybody NYC southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think the main point here is, factoring in the latest model runs, there is a greater chance of a storm than no storm. However, who gets the snow and how much they get is really all up in the air. I am sure that almost all media outlets will be very reluctant to pull the trigger this time given the turn of events at the last minute recently and also because snowstorms over 6" are very rare for our area as we get into mid march and later Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Canadian ensembles are north with tons of precipitation. 1"+ liquid for anybody NYC southward. How does 500mb look overall, especially with the trailing wave in the south? Does it look like it comes N or do we get most of the moisture from the initial slug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Lmao. Yes, the GGEM is caving to the GFS. They are converging in the middle as many here predicted. (leaning more towards GGEM in actuality) Anyone who doesn't see that the GFS caved 90% to the GGEM needs to have his head examined. The GGEM moved a bit south, the GFS went from essentially a sheared out nothing storm to something very close to delivering a significant storm to the whole area. The ensembles for the GFS also went hugely north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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