snow1 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS updates yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GFS updates yet? Southern stream is slower which is great imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah, this run looks much more favorable for phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not going to do it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Didn't happen, although there were improvements. Northern stream disappears and then we're left with a big cutoff down south. Euro will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lol the cutoff low is just rotting in Mexico. Hopefully this is just the gfs screwing up the phase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Check out the hydrology section. They mention significant QPF mostly in the form of snow. I really like tracking march storms because wild swings in sensible weather are so common. Give me very cold air lurking around this time period, give me the CMC and euro showing a favorable track at or near the BM, the GFS maybe even trending toward the benchmark and I'm intrigued enough to stick around to see what happens. It's day 5 of course, but its about as interesting as you could hope for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean gives Central Park 3.5 inches of snow on Sunday night into Monday and another 2 inches on Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 06z DGEX has the first shortwave ejecting northeast at the perfect time for us. Just one of many potential solutions. We won't know exactly how this will shake down for a few days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 06z DGEX has the first shortwave ejecting northeast at the perfect time for us. Just one of many potential solutions. We won't know exactly how this will shake down for a few days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f126.gif Especially when the euro changes the details of the PV orientation and energy cutting underneath just about every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Especially when the euro changes the details of the PV orientation and energy cutting underneath just about every run. Im amazed at how inconsistent the EURO has been this winter both in long and medium range. This system has a good amount more potential to deliver measurable snow all the way to the coast monday but like john said still ALOT of scenarios being depicted on the model runs to rule out anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 209 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 VALID 12Z SAT MAR 15 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 19 2014 ...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES... SPLIT RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS WILL YIELD A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. NO FEWER THAN FOUR MAIN SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE CONUS... TWO IN THE EAST AND TWO IN THE WEST... AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH ALL BUT THE FIRST ONE. THE FORECAST STARTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/D3 AND THE GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS. THAT FRONT SHOULD JUMP INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SINK SOUTHWARD SUN/D4. IN THE PAC NW... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH THE GFS RUNS NEARER TO THE GEFS MEAN AND THE ECMWF/UKMET RUNS NEARER TO THE ECENS MEAN. THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER OFFERED MARGINALLY BETTER CONTINUITY SO OPTED FOR THAT BLEND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM... MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CO/NM AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA... AIDING A SPLIT NE-SW BY SUN/D4 THOUGH THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVOLUTION YET. THE NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MON/D5 AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER OLD MEXICO OR THE BAJA... AT A RATHER LOW LATITUDE. ECMWF HAS DRUNKENLY TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER SOUTHEAST SHORTWAVE IN FAVOR OF A STRONGER MEXICAN CUTOFF LOW... BUT GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF THE TRACK/INTENSITY TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN... DUE TO ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC... AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IN ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL. AS SUCH... THE EC MEAN HAS SERVED WELL AT FOCUSING ON LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/SC/NC COAST AROUND MON/D5 FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE GEFS MEAN HAS WOBBLED EAST... THEN NEAR... NOW NORTHEAST OF THERE... SO OPTED TO RELY SOLELY ON THE 12Z/11 EC MEAN AS THE LOW OR LOWS HEAD NORTHEASTWARD TUE/D6. IN-HOUSE GEFS/ECENS CLUSTERING ALGORITHM SHOW A SPLIT BETWEEN A DEEPER MEXICAN VS SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW OR SHARP TROUGH... SO ALL SCENARIOS REMAIN IN PLAY. THE LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE WEST AS THE RIDGE RETREATS FROM CALIFORNIA. ENERGY ALONG 140W MAY SPLIT NE-SW... AS WAS THE CASE OVER MEXICO/TX... BUT THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING HOW MUCH ENERGY GOES WHERE. DEJA VU? GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION INTO CALIFORNIA BUT HAS MOSTLY BACKED OFF ON ITS STRONGER SOLUTIONS FROM SEVERAL RUNS AGO. ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT RECENTLY AS WELL... WHICH LEFT THE EC MEAN AS A BEST BET AS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. ONGOING PREFERENCE HAS BEEN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION TO SLIDE INTO THE PAC NW WHILE A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION STUMBLES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS SHOULD CARRY A FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TUE/D6 THEN ONTO THE PLAINS WED/D7. FINALLY... AND WITH CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE... A LAST SYSTEM MAY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO WA/OR WED/D7. ENSEMBLES DO SUPPORT BUILDING RIDGING TOWARD 150W SOUTH OF ALASKA BUT THERE IS MUCH TO BE SORTED OUT BEFOREHAND. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... IN THE EAST... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AS A COLDER SHOT OF AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK... THREAT REMAINS FOR THE POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST... WITH WIDESPREAD MODEST TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS WHICH ARE STILL FAR FROM KNOWN. FROPA THROUGH FLORIDA SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE SUNSHINE STATE. MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY DURING THE PERIOD... WITH SOME AREAS 10-15F ABOVE CLIMO. MORE PRECIP SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY MOVES INLAND. S CA/NV AND AZ SHOULD STAY DRY. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Im amazed at how inconsistent the EURO has been this winter both in long and medium range. This system has a good amount more potential to deliver measurable snow all the way to the coast monday but like john said still ALOT of scenarios being depicted on the model runs to rule out anything It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern. So it just doesn't pay to get invested in a specific outcome beyond 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern. cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png Wow that really is something right there, i do agree that this pattern and pretty much the pattern(s) we've been in this winter as a whole has pretty much gave the models collectively a hard time to pin down a certain forecast more than 96 hours out, hell even that might be too generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't agree with the GFS here. Hanging back that energy over New Mexico/Texas just doesn't make sense to me. I'm thinking this caves very shortly to a Euro/GGEM type solution. Some southern energy hangs back SW, on all the models, because a new Pacific system starts to flatten the +PNA ridge. At this range, it's hard to tell which model solution will be correct, on the extent of it. Although, the GFS/GEFS does tend to have stronger bias with it. We had a similar issue with the this week's threat. The big difference here that the PV is much further south and east and we'll have much more confluence. So whatever southern energy comes out, it will likely be forced further south. Then it will come down to how much interaction there is with the northern stream. The Euro op and it's ensemble mean, builds more heights into Davis Strait/Northern Canada region and elongates the PV from NE to SW. The GFS/GEFS doesn't do that as much. IMO, we would have a better chance, at some northern stream interaction, with the pattern shown on the Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern. So it just doesn't pay to get invested in a specific outcome beyond 120 hrs. cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png I was looking for this yesterday... could you give the link? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I was looking for this yesterday... could you give the link? Thanks! Here it is: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z Euro ensembles weren't as enthused as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Canadian ensemble mean also has a significant snowstorm for the New York City area on Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z Euro ensembles weren't as enthused as 12z. 12z yesterday had 4 inches of snow, while the 0z last night had 3.5 inches. Not really that much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 12z yesterday had 4 inches of snow, while the 0z last night had 3.5 inches. Not really that much of a difference.Not much of a variation as far as snowfall totals go. Statistically, getting more than 10" in march has only happened a few times in NYC in more than 50 years, the confidence for this to produce more than a few inches IMO is very low at this time but guess we will see in the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Many more GEFS members are enthused about the development of the storm system at some point over the next 7 days. Encouraging sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's still better than all the other models which speaks to the complexity of the pattern. So it just doesn't pay to get invested in a specific outcome beyond 120 hrs. cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png PRHW14 is the new version of the GFS that will be implemented later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Many more GEFS members are enthused about the development of the storm system at some point over the next 7 days. Encouraging sign. John my above statement was not meant to talk down the possibilities of this storm producing a good amount of snow for our entire area. This is still far out but we are going to start seeing the effects of the sun angle more and precip. Intensity and longevity of it may be a determining factor as well in final accumulations. This is all if it does become a big deal for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 12z yesterday had 4 inches of snow, while the 0z last night had 3.5 inches. Not really that much of a difference. Was looking at individual members. Also the control run wasn't as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 9z SREF at 87 hours has a really good look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Was looking at individual members. Also the control run wasn't as good. The control run pretty much led the way with the storm thats suppose to impact us this week. I would weight the control EURO strongly with this storm as well, just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Was looking at individual members. Also the control run wasn't as good. Still better than previous runs before 12z yesterday. The differences between 0z and 12z yesterday, aren't that significant,anyway. It's common for the ensembles to go the direction of the OP somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's going to have to thread an increasingly narrowing needle given no blocking and climo. I suppose it's possible we get snow from this but I would hedge against it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's going to have to thread an increasingly narrowing needle given no blocking and climo. I suppose it's possible we get snow from this but I would hedge against it for now. I would honestly be shocked if we got out of March without at least a little more snow, but like you said, with each day that passes, the chances diminish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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