bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 12z UKMET came north with one consolidated low instead of in pieces ala GFS. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=0&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I hear you, but even at that, some storms trended north in the last few model runs, see 1/3/14 and 1/21/14 as prime examples I agree but that was also almost 2 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run If there weren't pv squash issues there would probably be rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Where is the contradiction? I think 4" is the most we may see. I see so many times the models get hugged to death with no contemplation of the time of year. Just making an observation. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I have also been right this year also Your post suggested this gets suppressed by the PV but also that its mid march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Where is the contradiction? I think 4" is the most we may see. I see so many times the models get hugged to death with no contemplation of the time of year. Just making an observation. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I have also been right this year also If you're going to make a statement like that at least back it up with some sort of scientific knowledge. Otherwise it's just banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Through 48 hours the main change on the GGEM is that its further south with the PV. Otherwise still looks to be leading the pack out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If you're going to make a statement like that at least back it up with some sort of scientific knowledge. Otherwise it's just banter.This obvious trend today has been much less energy left behind and more consolidates system aided by an almost ideal and strength location of the PV in canada. UKMET looking the GGEM is very encouraging as well yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GGEM out to 84hr, appears to be hanging back more energy SW than the 0z run. First wave, is weaker/broader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Elongated surface low east of OC MD at 90 hr. Moderate snow into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 More energy is hanging back to the southwest when compared to the 00z run. Still going to swing the energy around eventually. It's digging towards the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If you're going to make a statement like that at least back it up with some sort of scientific knowledge. Otherwise it's just banter. And hugging models roughly 80 hours out in mid March is a form of banter also to a certain extant. I made an observation based on what knowledge I have and 40+ years of living where we do. Some may not think that's worth anything and that's fine. I think I will just sit back and watch this unfold. If you guys are right I will be the first to congratulate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 In general, without digging into details, came south of its 00z run but remains north of the GFS..so some convergence occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Today's Lunch Bunch ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us OPC 96hr 500mb Dug in Deep http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 But does the second wave come up? It had the heavist QPF NW of I-95, LVH to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 But does the second wave come up? It had the heavist QPF NW of I-95, LVH to NYC. It's well east. The Pacific system gives a boot. We can't have energy hang back SW too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It would make sense if the EURO trends better aloft. I think the 0z CMC was the best outcome, but unlikely. A 6"+ storm would be perfect... but a 20" would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's well east. The Pacific system gives a boot. We can't have energy hang back SW too long. The pacific storms will always have an adverse effect on the east coast hieght rises. Thats been the killer for alot of the potential big snowstorms on the EC this year. That crashes into the west coast it will more than likely flatten out the hieghts along the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 To put things into perspective... Below is the frequency of various snowstorms after 3/15 in New York City (1950-2013): 4" or more: 14 (once every 4.6 years) 6" or more: 6 (once every 10.7 years) 8" or more: 4 (once every 16.0 years) 10" or more: 2 (once every 32.0 years) Most recent: 4" or more: 3/16/2007 5.5" 6" or more: 3/19/1992 6.2" 8" or more: 4/6/1982 9.6" 10" or more: 3/20-21/1958 11.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's well east. The Pacific system gives a boot. We can't have energy hang back SW too long. You're scaring people. LOL. The GGEM is a very, very good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You'r scaring people. LOL. The GGEM is a very, very good hit. Lol- I was thinking maybe it was like the GFS. Which brought .30 to NYC. Guess it still much further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There's more consensus with the initial piece, but what happens after has yet to be determined, hopefully Euro jumps on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 You're scaring people. LOL. The GGEM is a very, very good hit. How much does the GGEM have for QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1"+ of precip line is near Sandy Hook, NJ at hour 96 on the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1"+ of precip line is near Sandy Hook, NJ at hour 96 on the 12z GGEM. That's better than I thought, is the coastal missing the biggest difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 1"+ of precip line is near Sandy Hook, NJ at hour 96 on the 12z GGEM. There is .50" -. 1.00" total qpf for NYC/NNJ/LI, mostly from the first wave. Less farther north. More south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 .8"QPF for NYC. .9" QPF for TTN. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GEFS are a huge hit...very far north and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Guess it's no surprise the GGEM backed off a bit...it was at an extreme last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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