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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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It's probably not totally because of model biases as some mentioned. Clearly the difference IMHO is the PV orientation and the amplitide of the ridge out west. 00z euro eas flatter with the ridge out west and hence more progressive as compared to the 12z run yesterday. This also allowed for energy to dig south with the flow out of the Plains more westerly. The GFS today has a decent amplitude ridge which is at least helping some of the energy spawn a low in the deep south despite the energy splitting.

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So instead of March 18th we find ourselves 18 Jan & our chief worry is, yet again, with an agressive PV that may squash most of the energy? just plain wow. A really nice step though. Euro will be interesting to say the very least.

But this time we're trending in the opposite direction. The ggem led the way for 3/2-3/3 and the rest played catch up. If the same happens this time we would be in business

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The PV is in a really good spot for this, we can have as much energy as possible coming in and wouldn't have to worry about the storm cutting inland. Unless the PV placement and strength rapidly shift then we should be good with that. I hope the GGEM either holds or doesn't change too much though. 

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But this time we're trending in the opposite direction. The ggem led the way for 3/2-3/3 and the rest played catch up. If the same happens this time we would be in business

Thats a VERY valid point: indeed the trend in this case is our friend- but in order for that to continue the GGEM has to continue to hld serve and start to draw the Euro further to its camp. the next 24-36 hrs will tell the tale. But by same token, you get the feeling in the room, if you will, this will be an all or nothing scenario ( emotionally for most of us). If we get an HECS in March everyone will be delirious but if it goes the other way it may end winter on a bad taste in the mouth. Lets hope its teh former and not the latter.

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I'm with Forky right now on this one. 4 or less. I think the High holds out long enough to kick this out south of the area with a slight chance of precip. Regardless of what the latest runs show it's Mid March and the changes are coming.

the usual trend this time of year is a north correction...this last storm that nailed NNE did exact that....

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I'm with Forky right now on this one. 4 or less. I think the High holds out long enough to kick this out south of the area with a slight chance of precip. Regardless of what the latest runs show it's Mid March and the changes are coming.

Forky just said on that run...Your mid March statement contradicts your first one

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the usual trend this time of year is a north correction...this last storm that nailed NNE did exact that....

Name one thing that has been "Usual" about this winter lol. I'm kinda hoping for one last shot but my gut says it's a no go. Jmo. Guess we will see if I'm right in the next few days.

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Name one thing that has been "Usual" about this winter lol. I'm kinda hoping for one last shot but my gut says it's a no go. Jmo. Guess we will see if I'm right in the next few days.

I hear you, but even at that, some storms trended north in the last few model runs, see 1/3/14 and 1/21/14 as prime examples

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Forky just said on that run...Your mid March statement contradicts your first one

Where is the contradiction? I think 4" is the

most we may see. I see so many times the

models get hugged to death with no contemplation of the time of year. Just making an observation. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I have also been right this year also ;)

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