Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 A couple more tweaks and you'd have a nice storm to work with. Cautiously optimistic while the ball is in the Euro's court. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It'll be at least 2:15 before we know anything Regardless a server crashing EURO run should be in order. So far the GGEM is leading the way with this storm. It was a few small baby steps away from delivering a HECS from DC-NYC and even on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The storm off the coast looks like a monster...you can see all the problems the gfs is having at the surface this run...expected with such a huge shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 At hour 96, the UKMET has a 1000mb low in an ideal spot and further north then the GFS. I am using the terrible French site, but I'm pretty sure it's on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run There is no way we are gonna be screwed twice by the PV in March, having it happen once was a rarity, twice would be abominable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Definitely a trend in the right direction. Hopefully the PV can relax a little to allow the system to make it through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's probably not totally because of model biases as some mentioned. Clearly the difference IMHO is the PV orientation and the amplitide of the ridge out west. 00z euro eas flatter with the ridge out west and hence more progressive as compared to the 12z run yesterday. This also allowed for energy to dig south with the flow out of the Plains more westerly. The GFS today has a decent amplitude ridge which is at least helping some of the energy spawn a low in the deep south despite the energy splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 48 hour QPF on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So instead of March 18th we find ourselves 18 Jan & our chief worry is, yet again, with an agressive PV that may squash most of the energy? just plain wow. A really nice step though. Euro will be interesting to say the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run we always have issues getting a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run Meh? The changes from 0z and 06z to now are insane, and I seriously doubt the gfs has honed in on a final solution given these rapid changes. Has the GGEM become the new king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 meh, we still have pv squash issues. 4" at most on this run Comon Forky I know your close to liking this threat. I was with you with you on the past few storms storms, but the potential here is pretty epic here if things go right - BIGG GGEM RUN NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So instead of March 18th we find ourselves 18 Jan & our chief worry is, yet again, with an agressive PV that may squash most of the energy? just plain wow. A really nice step though. Euro will be interesting to say the very least. But this time we're trending in the opposite direction. The ggem led the way for 3/2-3/3 and the rest played catch up. If the same happens this time we would be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z UKMET doesn't cut-off as much energy as the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The PV is in a really good spot for this, we can have as much energy as possible coming in and wouldn't have to worry about the storm cutting inland. Unless the PV placement and strength rapidly shift then we should be good with that. I hope the GGEM either holds or doesn't change too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Better trends so far...hopefully the GGEM doesn't step backward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 But this time we're trending in the opposite direction. The ggem led the way for 3/2-3/3 and the rest played catch up. If the same happens this time we would be in business Thats a VERY valid point: indeed the trend in this case is our friend- but in order for that to continue the GGEM has to continue to hld serve and start to draw the Euro further to its camp. the next 24-36 hrs will tell the tale. But by same token, you get the feeling in the room, if you will, this will be an all or nothing scenario ( emotionally for most of us). If we get an HECS in March everyone will be delirious but if it goes the other way it may end winter on a bad taste in the mouth. Lets hope its teh former and not the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Better trends so far...hopefully the GGEM doesn't step backward. GGEM is likely to step back some, that run last night was a BECS-30 inches plus for PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GGEM has initialized. Can't remember the last time I was so excited about a GGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM is likely to step back some, that run last night was a BECS-30 inches plus for PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GGEM has initialized. Can't remember the last time I was so excited about a GGEM run. This lol....if it hold something similar my confidence in a significant event will really start to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm with Forky right now on this one. 4 or less. I think the High holds out long enough to kick this out south of the area with a slight chance of precip. Regardless of what the latest runs show it's Mid March and the changes are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm with Forky right now on this one. 4 or less. I think the High holds out long enough to kick this out south of the area with a slight chance of precip. Regardless of what the latest runs show it's Mid March and the changes are coming. the usual trend this time of year is a north correction...this last storm that nailed NNE did exact that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Without a doubt the biggest GGEM runs of the winter season the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think the PV (position,sliding NE, as the system approaches) and NAO (less positive) are more favorable this time with respect to the early March system, when it was completely suppressed. I expect the GFS to move North over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm with Forky right now on this one. 4 or less. I think the High holds out long enough to kick this out south of the area with a slight chance of precip. Regardless of what the latest runs show it's Mid March and the changes are coming. Forky just said on that run...Your mid March statement contradicts your first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 the usual trend this time of year is a north correction...this last storm that nailed NNE did exact that.... Name one thing that has been "Usual" about this winter lol. I'm kinda hoping for one last shot but my gut says it's a no go. Jmo. Guess we will see if I'm right in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Name one thing that has been "Usual" about this winter lol. I'm kinda hoping for one last shot but my gut says it's a no go. Jmo. Guess we will see if I'm right in the next few days. I hear you, but even at that, some storms trended north in the last few model runs, see 1/3/14 and 1/21/14 as prime examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Forky just said on that run...Your mid March statement contradicts your first one Where is the contradiction? I think 4" is the most we may see. I see so many times the models get hugged to death with no contemplation of the time of year. Just making an observation. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. But I have also been right this year also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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