jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have to believe the GFS is lost at this point, and the Euro is suffering from its SW bias here of holding back energy, while overdeveloping mid-level and upper-level cyclones. While I'm very skeptical of the NAM and SREF at the end of their range, we can expect them to have a decent handle now on the shortwave/Longwave interaction at around hr 50, where the main model to model discrepencies begin. The rest of the 12z today and 0z tonight will hopefully shed some light. If we see the energy consolidated and heading east on more guidance, the likelihood of a significant event goes up by a lot I think. That's a nasty cold air mass for this all to run into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM extrapolated will be big...looks that way...we'll know shortly when the dgex rolls out ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 looks that way...we'll know shortly when the dgex rolls out DGEX only runs at 6 and 18...I hope that was sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 DGEX only runs at 6 and 18...I hope that was sarcasmbeen around long enuff to know....absolutely sarcasm (added a smiley for reference lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 looks that way...we'll know shortly when the dgex rolls out You know since Ralph has been here for the last few storms we have missed all of them. Ralph maybe the jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 been around long enuff to know....absolutely sarcasm (added a smiley for reference lol ) Yes I've known you since my inaugural days on Eastern, hence that post. Smiley wasn't there when I posted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Upton is nowhere near as enthused as som ei nhere. They are NOT buying the CMC solution @ all . GFS & Euro is their call with the storm being suppressed: RACK. 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGHIGH OVER THE AREA...AND THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAYNIGHT AND MONDAY. 00Z CMC HAS THE HIGH MUCH FARTHER NORTH...SO THELOW IS ABLE TO LIFT PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...MUCHOF IT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CMC KEEPS THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE...ANDTHEN A SECONDARY LOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTIONIS AN OUTLIER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yes I've known you since my inaugural days on Eastern, hence that post. Smiley wasn't there when I posted lol.also co - ran the mirc chatroom #easternuswx and frequented ne.weather newsgroup where on both I was SteveB....not sure if u r familiar with those?In any event I expect the gfs to take another baby step at h5 next run. At 6z it didn't zip that lead sw east as fast as0z. That is one of the keys in getting this storm to happen imo in addition to having the whole lobe of consolidated energy coming out at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Upton is nowhere near as enthused as som ei nhere. They are NOT buying the CMC solution @ all . GFS & Euro is their call with the storm being suppressed: RACK. 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE AREA...AND THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 00Z CMC HAS THE HIGH MUCH FARTHER NORTH...SO THE LOW IS ABLE TO LIFT PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...MUCH OF IT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CMC KEEPS THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE...AND THEN A SECONDARY LOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER Cant blame them. Though signs are pointing to a GGEM outcome by the NAM we're still far from a certain outcome. If GFS and especially EURO today take a step towards the GGEM they'll be changing they're tune. Good call for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 also co - ran the mirc chatroom #easternuswx and frequented ne.weather newsgroup where on both I was SteveB....not sure if u r familiar with those? In any event I expect the gfs to take another baby step at h5 next run. At 6z it didn't zip that lead sw east as fast as0z. That is one of the keys in getting this storm to happen imo in addition to having the whole lobe of consolidated energy coming out at the same time. I've only been around weather communities since joining EUSWX in December of 2007, so no, I'm not. But ah well, off-topic. Back to the storm. I think the 12z GFS would hold serve. I'd be a lot more enthusiastic if the ECM didn't jump to it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Im taking the approach that we have been blessed this summer: if we finish with an HECS fantastic & break the record & if w dont oh well it was a very sweet ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Through hour 39 the 12z GFS is looking a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Through hour 39 the 12z GFS is looking a bit better.agreed...lead sw not escaping east it appears. Another baby step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Wow major changes on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 agreed...lead sw not escaping east it appears. Another baby step I don't think it's just a "baby" step so far through hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm not sure what the end result is going to be but the GFS looks quite different at 48 hours with its handling of the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS is worlds better with its upper level appearance at 48 hours compared to 00 and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I don't think it's just a "baby" step so far through hour 45.yeah I see that now during later panels. Big time differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I've only been around weather communities since joining EUSWX in December of 2007, so no, I'm not. But ah well, off-topic. Back to the storm. I think the 12z GFS would hold serve. I'd be a lot more enthusiastic if the ECM didn't jump to it last night. Looks like I'm going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like I'm going to be wrong. No offense intended but Im Glad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS at 63hr. 1004mb low over Central Texas. Energy trying to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z GFS at 60hr. 1004mb low over Central Texas. Energy trying to consolidate. Its looks like its going to try and make things interesting..pv in a great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Big sprawled out low pressure system over the southeast. The GFS is still going to allow a small piece of southern energy to escape out front, but it looks worlds better at H5. It's about time we had a good trend for once at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Tons of northern stream energy pouring into the backside of the trough. H5 looks very similar to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 H5 looks so much better on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The differences from previous runs are astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Partial or full phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This run the energy phases over the Arklatex region. 06z buried the energy near Mexico City. Mega differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It definitely is going towards the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 hr 84 mod snow dca-baltimore light snow to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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