PB GFI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I would just like see this out of the GGEM and ECMWF today, too The SREF/NAM/DGEX are part of the same WRF family too. So I would be surprised see them with all an amplified solution. I will never dismiss guidance , but gun to my head , these are not the models i`m turning too to save my life . GGEM and EURO is where I live today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I like how we keep repeating something we all know. YES we already know the Nam and Sref are out of their useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I am pretty sure that the DGEX also was one of the first models (after Canadian) to show a suppressed trend for that storm earlier in the month as a QPF map of the run was what triggered the discussion regarding the Feb 6 2010 virga storm. Not saying the DGEX is amazing (far from it) but there you go. The strange thing seems to be that the amplified models for the storm a week and a half ago are suppressed now. Of course, we know which suite was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I like how we keep repeating something we all know. YES we already know the Nam and Sref are out of their useful range.maybe there are new members who are still learning? You and I know this but not everyone.Btw to my eyes the gfs took a baby step at 6z as the lead sw doesn't escape quite as fast...the timing is just a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Woof the SREF mean is gorgeous, tight clustering for a big phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We're going to know what's going on during the next day or so. The pivotal time now is within 48 hours. You can already see the 12z NAM out to hour 39 is going to eject the energy rather than shoving it into Mexico like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If this were to fully phase then there's no doubt we would have a very large and moisture filled system probably dropping widespread 1-2 feet of snow like the GGEM showed. Really hope the SREFS and GGEM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We're going to know what's going on during the next day or so. The pivotal time now is within 48 hours. You can already see the 12z NAM out to hour 39 is going to eject the energy rather than shoving it into Mexico like the GFS shows. We should know in a few hours if the ggem holds serve or not and if the euro makes any positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have to think the EURO/GFS camp will win vs. the NAM/SREF/GGEM, but ya never know... GFS has been rock solid in saying nothing. GGEM/SREF has been rock solid in a big storm. EURO swinging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We should know in a few hours if the ggem holds serve or not and if the euro makes any positive trends. Out to hour 45 the NAM is in the GGEM/SREF camp. Good signs so far with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If this were to fully phase then there's no doubt we would have a very large and moisture filled system probably dropping widespread 1-2 feet of snow like the GGEM showed. Really hope the SREFS and GGEM is correct. Phase --> two feet of snow is quite the leap of faith. There are plenty of things to go wrong even on the off chance the upper atmosphere plays out desirably in the southwest/lower plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have to think the EURO/GFS camp will win vs. the NAM/SREF/GGEM, but ya never know... GFS has been rock solid in saying nothing. GGEM/SREF has been rock solid in a big storm. EURO swinging around. I wouldn't lump the Euro in with the GFS. No model does what the GFS shows. The Euro is sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z NAM is going to be beautiful. Big phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 New NAM looks almost identical to the Euro at 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z NAM is going to be beautiful. Big phase. Major differences when you compare it to the Canadian. The Canadian was not only slower with the lead disturbance but farther north with the PV over Southeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 12z NAM is going to be beautiful. Big phase. New NAM looks almost identical to the Euro at 54 hours UHMM. didn't the Euro show nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Major differences when you compare it to the Canadian. The Canadian was not only slower with the lead disturbance but farther north with the PV over Southeast Canada. It's just good to see the energy being ejected eastward rather than what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Major differences when you compare it to the Canadian. The Canadian was not only slower with the lead disturbance but farther north with the PV over Southeast Canada. The PV lobe is not digging as much over the Great Lakes as much as the 0z Euro at 54h-60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Major differences when you compare it to the Canadian. The Canadian was not only slower with the lead disturbance but farther north with the PV over Southeast Canada. NAM is not holding the energy back and is already phasing at hour 57. That feature is nowhere near what the euro was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have to think the EURO/GFS camp will win vs. the NAM/SREF/GGEM, but ya never know... GFS has been rock solid in saying nothing. GGEM/SREF has been rock solid in a big storm. EURO swinging around. agree 100% that GGEM extreme solution has to be discounted - also the GGEM and SREFS alone is the least likely solutions to verify IMO plus the NAM is not usually used for longer range forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yeah the 00z Euro digs the energy into northern Mexico, the NAM looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yeah the 00z Euro digs the energy into northern Mexico, the NAM looks nothing like that. Yup, around 54 hours they are almost exactly similar and afterward they diverge. Small details are going to make a huge difference in the eventual outcome of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM is not holding the energy back and is already phasing at hour 57. That feature is nowhere near what the euro was doing. The positioning of the shortwave/disturbance at 54 hr is literally identical. The difference is that the NAM slides that incoming disturbance southeastward while interacting with the lead disturbance. The Euro moves the Pac shortwave due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 at 60 seems like the NAM has a lot more energy on the backside which may lead to it hanging back after that. not sure if that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 At hour 78 you have a large area of low pressure sprawled out from Texas to South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 at 60 seems like the NAM has a lot more energy on the backside which may lead to it hanging back after that. not sure if that is a good sign. It's going to have to swing northeastward eventually. The Canadian had the same thing and then swung that energy around and developed the coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's going to have to swing northeastward eventually. The Canadian had the same thing and then swung that energy around and developed the coastal system. agree 100% just thinking with that much on the backside, it could slow the whole progression down as is does swing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 agree 100% just thinking with that much on the backside, it could slow the whole progression down as is does swing around. The Canadian had an initial overrunning snow period, then something of a break before the snow associated with the coastal feature broke out. The NAM would likely do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I have to believe the GFS is lost at this point, and the Euro is suffering from its SW bias here of holding back energy, while overdeveloping mid-level and upper-level cyclones. While I'm very skeptical of the NAM and SREF at the end of their range, we can expect them to have a decent handle now on the shortwave/Longwave interaction at around hr 50, when the main model to model discrepencies begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 NAM extrapolated will be big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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