Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Look how close this was, if this ends up south, this will really burn to know what could have been (ggem) how to screen capture how does that not phase? Its a partial phase right there! Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 how does that not phase? Its a partial phase right there! Ugh GGEM has northern stream phasing after that, the 2 streams stay separate on the euro, like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well that's disconcerting if we want a storm, the GFS & EURO camping out together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 00z ECM is suppressed with the system. I do not want to say the GGEM is correct and at the same time I am not going to say the ECM is correct. The ECM is changing run from run..Two runs ago it was south ..at 12 Z it came north and tonight at 00z it has once again gone south. In other words, no consistency. On the other hand the GGEM has been consistent with what it has been showing. So ATM the best road approach is to say that the period of the 17th to the 19th has to be watched. GGEM was the only model to show the system suppressed which the ECM was showing as 12-20 just a short while back ... It was the outlier then but ended up being correct... The moral of the story is nothing is concrete yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys are gona need to tread lightly here. The euro ensembles and its control want no part of this . The GFS never liked this one. I've seen the other guidance but 2 heavy weight globals at only 96 hours are really south and east of OBX . I would not fall in love with the Canadian until you see more support from models with good skill scores at this range . Just a word of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys are gona need to tread lightly here. The euro ensembles and its control want no part of this . The GFS never liked this one. I've seen the other guidance but 2 heavy weight globals at only 96 hours are really south and east of OBX . I would not fall in love with the Canadian until you see more support from models with good skill scores at this range . Just a word of caution. Having the GGEM in the storm camp and the GFS/ EURO in the no go is not good no matter how you look at it but the GGEM has been having a hot hand lately. Moral of the story VERY low confidence on whats going to happen atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Dgex is still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 DGEX is a blizzard with 2 FEET of snow. Looks exactly like the Canadian in that regard. It is deeper with the low however and has a 975 mb low south of Long Island. The Canadian ensemble mean even has us down for a foot of snow. The Canadian model has been hot as heck this winter. We shall see what happens. The DGEX then brings us more snow on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You guys are gona need to tread lightly here. The euro ensembles and its control want no part of this . The GFS never liked this one. I've seen the other guidance but 2 heavy weight globals at only 96 hours are really south and east of OBX . I would not fall in love with the Canadian until you see more support from models with good skill scores at this range . Just a word of caution. Euro ensemble mean actually has NYC down for about 1.5 inches. Granted, that is almost nothing in comparison, but it still has something, so we really have to wait and see. A few of the 51 members are major hits while others have nothing and most have nearly nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 DGEX is a blizzard with 2 FEET of snow. Looks exactly like the Canadian in that regard. It is deeper with the low however and has a 975 mb low south of Long Island. The Canadian ensemble mean even has us down for a foot of snow. The Canadian model has been hot as heck this winter. We shall see what happens. The DGEX then brings us more snow on Wednesday. Why do we never hear folks discuss the dgex unless it's the only model that shows snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Why do we never hear folks discuss the dgex unless it's the only model that shows snow? It supports the Canadian model. Just looking for ANYTHING that would give the Canadian support here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It supports the Canadian model. Just looking for ANYTHING that would give the Canadian support here at all. I gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Euro ensemble mean actually has NYC down for about 1.5 inches. Granted, that is almost nothing in comparison, but it still has something, so we really have to wait and see. A few of the 51 members are major hits while others have nothing and most have nearly nothing. Yep. I've seen this 100 x. PP will ignore the current guidance and revert back to what the model once saw Yes the GGEM is a crusher but at 12z today you will only be 3 days out from Hatteras .You are gona need to see the Canadian continue its gung ho look and then have the euro attempt to bring all the energy out. For me bringing out all the energy out is a better situation then some broad based low . The euro ( which could be it's bias ) doesn't bundle the energy but still a concern for me because the ensembles don't either. I not sure when the energy gets on shore but is that the point where the GGEM falls apart or is that where the euro brings the whole piece out. I'm sure lower skill score models will show great solutions and will keep the blind tuned in but one can not dismiss the 2 top globals in agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yep. I've seen this 100 x. PP will ignore the current guidance and revert back to what the model once saw Yes the GGEM is a crusher but at 12z today you will only be 3 days out from Hatteras .You are gona need to see the Canadian continue its gung ho look and then have the euro attempt to bring all the energy out. For me bringing out all the energy out is a better situation then some broad based low . The euro ( which could be it's bias ) doesn't bundle the energy but still a concern for me because the ensembles don't either. I not sure when the energy gets on shore but is that the point where the GGEM falls apart or is that where the euro brings the whole piece out. I'm sure lower skill score models will show great solutions and will keep the blind tuned in but one can not dismiss the 2 top globals in agreement here. This situation is a precarious one to say the least. The EURO/GFS have not been too consistent in they're runs lately but for the ensembles and the control of the EURO not to be nowhere near as huge as the GGEM has me in caution mode. Statistically we all know the GFS/EURO are two top models ( GFS a distant second IMO ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 As much as I want the Euro and gfs to jump on board, I want to see the ggem holding serve with the storm. It has had the hot hand of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This situation is a precarious one to say the least. The EURO/GFS have not been too consistent in they're runs lately but for the ensembles and the control of the EURO not to be nowhere near as huge as the GGEM has me in caution mode. Statistically we all know the GFS/EURO are two top models ( GFS a distant second IMO ). You should go back and read 1234abc's posts about the models rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS is 5th in terms of accuracy in this range, ahead of only the NOGAPS. It is pretty worthless MOST of the time in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 All the models are going to hit and miss. When the big players all show a storm 48 hours, its game on. Until then, everything is just speculation.. but thats what makes this fun. And thats JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 All the models are going to hit and miss. When the big players all show a storm 48 hours, its game on. Until then, everything is just speculation.. but thats what makes this fun. And thats JMO Nice post. Delicate situation with the pv once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What cracks me up is the negative nancys sayin winter is over, very little chance..yada yada. Guess what folks, March is a wacky month. Anything is on table. 10" of snow one day, gone the next. Still have to go plow it. I remember a March storm in the late 90's... it was a doozy. bloomfield ended up with nothing. My buddy and I drove out to sussex. The snow was getting deeper and deeper as we went out Rt.80. We got on rt.15 and it was feet of snow and got worse as we headed north. Abandoned cars in the middle of 15. There was 3 feet of snow up there.. made a boatload of cash ,came back to bloomfield and started spring clean ups the next day! Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We would need to see the euro and gfs go toward the GGEM today for that solution to be legit otherwise I think we might be sunk. Doesn't look good unfortunately once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 What cracks me up is the negative nancys sayin winter is over, very little chance..yada yada. Guess what folks, March is a wacky month. Anything is on table. 10" of snow one day, gone the next. Still have to go plow it. I remember a March storm in the late 90's... it was a doozy. bloomfield ended up with nothing. My buddy and I drove out to sussex. The snow was getting deeper and deeper as we went out Rt.80. We got on rt.15 and it was feet of snow and got worse as we headed north. Abandoned cars in the middle of 15. There was 3 feet of snow up there.. made a boatload of cash ,came back to bloomfield and started spring clean ups the next day! Just sayin... The GFS not finding its ass with both hands is not surprising and to the poster before the GFS ahead of the nogaps is not surprising. The big question mark for me however is the EURO also not wanting to have much to do with it collectively through its suites. The GGEM being pretty good lately and being insistent on this being a big snowstorm is comforting however, i assume best way to put this see how the GFS/EURO look at 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GFS not finding its ass with both hands is not surprising and to the poster before the GFS ahead of the nogaps is not surprising. The big question mark for me however is the EURO also not wanting to have much to do with it collectively through its suites. The GGEM being pretty good lately and being insistent on this being a big snowstorm is comforting however, i assume best way to put this see how the GFS/EURO look at 12z today Precisely... but if they dont shift towards the big soltuion today, they might tomorrow but they need to hold serve atleast today. The runs will get more important as we close in. Saturday morning is go or no go for me after I wake up and scroll through the overnight jibber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This would be the biggest model coup of the season so far if the CMC and SREF are right about a less suppressed theme. Even if the storm doesn't get quite as far north as they are showing, it would still be a nice model pickup. The Euro changing from run to run tells me the final act in this play hasn't been written yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Precisely... but if they dont shift towards the big soltuion today, they might tomorrow but they need to hold serve atleast today. The runs will get more important as we close in. Saturday morning is go or no go for me after I wake up and scroll through the overnight jibber. I cant imagine assuming the GGEM keeps its hot streak alive that both GFS and EURO dont show atleast some signs of a more powerful storm albeit probably not as extreme and the GGEM/6z GFS just yet ( it pains me to give more than a little wieght to the 6z/18z gfs as well ). The GGEM hasnt wavered the past few days too so may be on to something while the EURO has wavered and the GFS is just being the GFS, la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This would be the biggest model coup of the season so far if the CMC and SREF are right about a less suppressed theme. Even if the storm doesn't get quite as far north as they are showing, it would still be a nice model pickup. The Euro changing from run to run tells me the final act in this play hasn't been written yet. f90.gif f87.gif 00z CMC run on SV last night showed the 1.75 inch line touching nassau/suffolk border of LI. Dont know if thats suppressed or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GFS and ECMWF are faster than the GGEM with the Pacific system crashing into West Coast between 96-120hr. That keeps the energy with this storm more progressive. Some southern stream energy still gets left behind the SW. But what remains of it's get ejected out too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GFS and ECMWF are faster than the GGEM with the Pacific system crashing into West Coast between 96-120hr. That keeps the energy more progressive. Hmm guess we shall see what happens today from the 12z EURO/GFS then. We ALL should know the european holds back energy but its outcomes on the EC for monday compared to the GGEM is totally different. IMO its a battle between the two globals right now, GGEM vs. EURO and im giving the slightest edge to the GGEM only because this is the EURO its going up against and the fact that none of its runs like this remotely as much as the GGEM is concerning still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The SREF and CMC have been playing a hot hand of late. As some have noted and some noted yesterday it all comes down to the consolidation of energy in the southwest US. If the aforementioned models are handling that correctly, this becomes a significant snowstorm setup. If not, we're ripping cirrus. It will be almost impossible to get moisture up here with the compressed height field north of us if the energy ejects in multiple pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 But of course watch those who had the hot hand fail when it comes to showing snow for our area and the gfs win. We've been very unlucky for the past month unfortunately even when temps have been below to well below normal on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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