CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It looks ok. You don't know what that trough will do though. If it stays positive than the storm will shear out. We need negative Im also not a fan of the trough closing off that far west and south. If that happens we are going to need another s/w to energize it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yeah we've seen what a strong PV can do with storms that try to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 That southern shortwave is going to escape east again on the GFS; not much in the way of improvements vs 18z, at least through hour 60. I think we really need that piece to get involved and sort of "tug" the whole system east before too much energy can get lost in Mexico. Maybe the northern stream will be able to pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS is a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GFS is a train wreckI'd be siding with the hot hands right now and using a euro/ggem blend over the gfs anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 PV is terrible. Doesn't weaken or split and there is no phasing out west. Not what i was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GFS kicks the energy down south eastward faster than any other model, so we get no phasing, the 48 hr RGEM looks way better than GFS, here is the 00z UKMET (looking real good)...I imagine GGEM will follow suit. prntscr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The PV really isn't the factor which is causing the bad GFS runs, its how the GFS handles the energy around 48-60 hours down around Texas. All of the other guidance has this shortwave farther west and phases it with the energy coming from Canada...GFS kicks it east...I imagine if the GGEM/EURO hold tonight the GFS will continue to gradually cave. UKMET looks amazing FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This is more typical of these models where the gfs always plays catch up to the more superior GGEM and Euro at this range. Of course we have to see if those models continue to show what they've been showing or improve on it, otherwise you can't discount the gfs entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Its almost comical how the gfs wants no part of this storm. The gfs is either going to score a huge win or its just up to its old tricks yet again. I'm with highzenberg...I expect a gradual cave to a secs/mecs solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The PV really isn't the factor which is causing the bad GFS runs, its how the GFS handles the energy around 48-60 hours down around Texas. All of the other guidance has this shortwave farther west and phases it with the energy coming from Canada...GFS kicks it east...I imagine if the GGEM/EURO hold tonight the GFS will continue to gradually cave. UKMET looks amazing FWIW. any other details on the ukie u care to expand on? I'm with you...72 hrs looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM looks like a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 img Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM looks like a HECSit certainly does....complete opposite of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 GGEM precip maps are going to be insane.... I can't tell where the rain/snow line is yet though for down here in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Wow so different from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like a lot of sleet too on the ggem unless my eyes r playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ggem has been rather consistent with this storm fwiw. Ride the hot hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks like a lot of sleet too on the ggem unless my eyes r playing tricks on me. With the GGEM track I imagine its not all snow for Philly, idk about NYC...I gotta wait for the precip type maps to come out.... So far..UKMET/GGEM/NAM vs. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 With the GGEM track I imagine its not all snow for Philly, idk about NYC...I gotta wait for the precip type maps to come out.... So far..UKMET/GGEM/NAM vs. GFS I see a nice positioned 1030mb high on the ggem, my guess is it's pretty snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 OT but I can't believe it was 21 years ago today....the superstorm! Wow how time flies....feels like yesterday. Ggem has the followup system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 OT but I can't believe it was 21 years ago today....the superstorm! Wow how time flies....feels like yesterday. Ggem has the followup system as well. Did you ever stop to think "People on the internet will compare this against nearly every winter storm for the next quarter century"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think Philly might go over to a mix at 120 hours, but def changes back over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 OT but I can't believe it was 21 years ago today....the superstorm! Wow how time flies....feels like yesterday. Ggem has the followup system as well. And 24 years ago today it was 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If the GGEM is all snow, that is one of the most impressive model outputs for snow i've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Canadian just coming into range on weatherbell... what a beautiful 500 mb field. Amazing how two of the biggest synoptic models (the GFS being the other) can be so different at three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GGEM is insane for parts of PA, gotta be like 30" in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GGEM is insane for parts of PA, gotta be like 30" in places. Sounds pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The GGEM is insane for parts of PA, gotta be like 30" in places.don't wanna be in the bullseye just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 So what's the QPF/Snowfall output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.