hinyho Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Why do you need to be convinced so bad. If you don't believe it, start planting your spring garden on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Make me understand why there will be a big snow storm. SnoSki says the MJO is favorable. Can't argue with that, can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What am I missing with this possible event if anything. Euro not much, GFS nothing, GGEM has a storm. Discussing a threat is understood. Make me understand why there will be a big snow storm. nobody said there is going to be a big snow storm but rather the "possibility" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SnoSki says the MJO is favorable. Can't argue with that, can we? SnoSki has been banging that MJO drum a lot, down side is though it has to be tuned because its been off a lot lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Why do you need to be convinced so bad. If you don't believe it, start planting your spring garden on Monday. I still have 8-10 inches of snow on the ground. Can't plant yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I still have 8-10 inches of snow on the ground. Can't plant yet good for you! I have zero and its been gone for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What am I missing with this possible event if anything. Euro not much, GFS nothing, GGEM has a storm. Discussing a threat is understood. Make me understand why there will be a big snow storm. Because it wouldn't take much for the EURO for example to show a much bigger storm with leaving less energy out west. The overall setup is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What am I missing with this possible event if anything. Euro not much, GFS nothing, GGEM has a storm. Discussing a threat is understood. Make me understand why there will be a big snow storm. Euro ensemble mean and Canadian ensemble mean both have a significant snowstorm for us. They are also #1 and #2 in terms of accuracy at day 5. Number 3 in terms of accuracy at day 5 in the JMA and it also has a significant snowstorm. The Euro and JMA are also highest in terms of accuracy at day 8 and they also have a snowstorm for us on Wednesday (day 8). How did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Because it wouldn't take much for the EURO for example to show a much bigger storm with leaving less energy out west. The overall setup is there. Euro ensemble mean and Canadian ensemble mean both have a significant snowstorm for us. They are also #1 and #2 in terms of accuracy at day 5. Number 3 in terms of accuracy at day 5 in the JMA and it also has a significant snowstorm. The Euro and JMA are also highest in terms of accuracy at day 8 and they also have a snowstorm for us on Wednesday (day 8). How did I do? Thank you for the post. I will raise the alert flag at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Thank you for the post. I will raise the alert flag at my house whats with the sarcasm and attitude? no one said a big snowstorm was certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean and Canadian ensemble mean both have a significant snowstorm for us. They are also #1 and #2 in terms of accuracy at day 5. Number 3 in terms of accuracy at day 5 in the JMA and it also has a significant snowstorm. The Euro and JMA are also highest in terms of accuracy at day 8 and they also have a snowstorm for us on Wednesday (day 8). How did I do? Now we are talking some stats ! Thats great info and have never seen anything like it posted before. Great Job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean and Canadian ensemble mean both have a significant snowstorm for us. They are also #1 and #2 in terms of accuracy at day 5. Number 3 in terms of accuracy at day 5 in the JMA and it also has a significant snowstorm. The Euro and JMA are also highest in terms of accuracy at day 8 and they also have a snowstorm for us on Wednesday (day 8). How did I do? One thing about 1234abc...the guy is very familiar with all the models and their tendencies & built-in biases...I remember him being the 1st to note the possibility for that November 2012 snowstorm, IIRC...and maybe that October one in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 whats with the sarcasm and attitude? no one said a big snowstorm was certain So sarcasm. I was being serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So sarcasm. I was being serious. oh my apologies then thought you were trying to be a jerk about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Latest SREF looks good. Definitely more towards GGEM/Euro camp. I'm really thinking the GFS is lacking here due to its lower resolution. The upper level flow is funneling right down through the Rockies. Perhaps the GFS is having trouble resolving this very energetic flow through very complex topography? If anyone knows more about this, or feels similarly, please chime in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 One thing about 1234abc...the guy is very familiar with all the models and their tendencies & built-in biases...I remember him being the 1st to note the possibility for that November 2012 snowstorm, IIRC...and maybe that October one in 2011. Thanks for the kind words. They obviously don't all work out but I was quite surprised when CNBC called me to appear on National television when I forecast the blizzard that hit Long Island last year before anyone else. They told me that CNBC's executive producer was following me. For whatever it is worth. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Latest SREF looks good. Definitely more towards GGEM/Euro camp. I'm really thinking the GFS is lacking here due to its lower resolution. The upper level flow is funneling right down through the Rockies. Perhaps the GFS is having trouble resolving this very energetic flow through very complex topography? If anyone knows more about this, or feels similarly, please chime in... GFS is 5th in terms of accuracy in this range, ahead of only the NOGAPS. It is pretty worthless MOST of the time in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It is a damn shame the NAM is still too far out because at 84 hours it has one amazing storm forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 00z NAM continues to look beautiful out west. Huge phase over eastern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It is a damn shame the NAM is still too far out because at 84 hours it has one amazing storm forming. Looks primed for an epic cutter to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hard to cut with the 1036 high to the north...instead of cutting to Chicago, it may cut up to PIT instead. Looks primed for an epic cutter to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks primed for an epic cutter to me? Nope the PV is in a good position to force the low to redevelop to the south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 If it tries to cut you're going to end up like the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The more energy you can throw at that PV the better it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hard to cut with the 1036 high to the north...instead of cutting to Chicago, it may cut up to PIT instead. The PV would force this to go East I believe. The PV is sitting to the NE of the 1036mb high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 84 NAM solution is way too strong, no other model is even close to that. Look at the ECMWF and the GEM for a solution this far out. If the 48 hr NAM had that it would be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The 84 NAM solution is way too strong, no other model is even close to that. Look at the ECMWF and the GEM for a solution this far out. If the 48 hr NAM had that it would be a different story.i'm just seeing that H5 look and licking my lips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I used to look at the long range NAM as if it could MAYBE produce a viable solution. No longer shall I do that. It jumps WILDLY from run to run and has moved areas of low pressure literally hundreds of miles from one run to the next (as in 300-500), whereas other models might trend to a solution over time Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Look at the NAM and see that it ejects the energy rather than holding it back or burying it into Mexico. Run with that for now. Could care less what the surface looks Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Looks primed for an epic cutter to me? look at the compressed height field on the h5 maps...that cant cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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