forkyfork Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 be careful what you wish for. as i said before after looking at the 12z gfes the area of heavy snow is narrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:46 PM, forkyfork said: be careful what you wish for. as i said before after looking at the 12z gfes the area of heavy snow is narrow What is the gfes? This is a big sprawled out area of multi barreled low pressure with tons of moisture. I disagree that the precipitation will fall in a narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:46 PM, forkyfork said: be careful what you wish for. as i said before after looking at the 12z gfes the area of heavy snow is narrow I think a lot of people here at this point would gladly take any snow this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 60, ECWMF ensemble mean, 1004mb low over north central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:49 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think a lot of people here at this point would gladly take any snow this monthand i feel sorry for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 People seem to forget at this time of year climo is more favorable for a north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 72 sub 1004mb low right where MS/AR/LA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:53 PM, easternsnowman said: People seem to forget at this time of year climo is more favorable for a north solution. Nothing typical about this upcoming pattern for March. More like JAN/FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 How can you use the GEFS as a tool for narrowing down the heavy snow axis? Its a good sign NW of the OP. Favorable trends today for a decent storm. However, 0z runs should seal the deal if a HECS is coming(which I doubt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 84 snow moving in, low over deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 90 snow from NYC south, heavy snow south of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:27 PM, REDMK6GLI said: What? Have you been under a rock the whole day? All globals took a step towards the more powerful GGEM solution. Clear signals for atleast a moderate event for the area on most models. Your statement is SEVERELY flawed No rocks, just having an open healthy discussion, I have only located one model that GGEM that produces snow for NYC of greater than 2 or 3 inches. What respectable computer models are showing 3 or more inches of snow for this event. Best, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 96 major improvement over 00z. Steady snow makes it into the NW interior zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:56 PM, Animal said: No rocks, just having an open healthy discussion, I have only located one model that GGEM that produces snow for NYC of greater than 2 or 3 inches. What respectable computer models are showing 3 or more inches of snow for this event. Best, Matt It is not at this stage about what they are showing but about what they are trending towards with their most recent runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 102 lull, definitely further NW than 00z. Not nearly as good though as the GEFS/GGEM mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 108 steady snow up to TTN/Sandy Hook with the second wave. QPF fields all the way back to the Great Lakes. About 50-100 mile shift NW, must be a lot more individual members showing hits or near misses with the second wave. Hour 114 steady snow again area wide. Vast improvements with both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:58 PM, atownwxwatcher said: It is not at this stage about what they are showing but about what they are trending towards with their most recent runs.. With the crazy run south earlier in the month on models from 4 days out, it is impossible to think this could make a significant run north on models this time? PV being overdone for mid-March? Rainer -> bullseye -> suppressed last time, this time suppressed -> bullseye -> rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I think it will be more congealed into one wave of precip. These systems usually aren't one batch of snow, long lull then next batch. There might be a dropoff from the first part into the second, but I doubt it lasts more than 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:02 PM, jm1220 said: I think it will be more congealed into one wave of precip. These systems usually aren't one batch of snow, long lull then next batch. There might be a dropoff from the first part into the second, but I doubt it lasts more than 12 hours. I haven't seen any guidance yet that supports this theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:01 PM, Capt. Adam said: With the crazy run south earlier in the month on models from 4 days out, it is impossible to think this could make a significant run north on models this time? PV being overdone for mid-March? Rainer -> bullseye -> suppressed last time, this time suppressed -> bullseye -> rainer? It would take a lot to make this a rain event here, but anything's possible given the trends in the final few days on storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 18z NAM - Through hour 30, looking on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:03 PM, YanksFan27 said: I haven't seen any guidance yet that supports this theory. JMA is an example of this...This would be the best scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On the Euro Ensembles, the .50"+ line is through SWCT from wave 1 and there is more after for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 7:38 PM, USCG RS said: Hey brother, what's your thinking with this storm? Still too early for details but I think most of us here will get into accumulating snow. Suppression is certainly still a risk but I'm more concerned on points North of say Interstate 84. There will be a tight precip gradient, particularly on the north side as well. In general I like where we stand on LI at this point for a moderate to signficant event. Overall I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:07 PM, Highzenberg said: JMA is an example of this...This would be the best scenario. His theory is that it's in and out in less than 12 hours. The JMA is 24hr +. Precip moves in between hours 72 and 96 and doesn't end until after 120. We'll go 24 hours plus conservatively. The JMA is equivalent to the 3/12/14 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:11 PM, YanksFan27 said: His theory is that it's in and out in less than 12 hours. The JMA is 24hr +. Precip moves in between hours 72 and 96 and doesn't end until after 120. We'll go 24 hours plus conservatively. The JMA is equivalent to the 3/12/14 12z GGEM. I don't mean that the entire storm will be done in 12 hours. I mean that I don't buy a long break in precip between both waves of more than 12 hours. I think both waves will be closer together and more of one feature. The entire system could last much longer than 12 hours if it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 NMM is so far north at 15z that places from Philly south might be primarily rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:13 PM, jm1220 said: I don't mean that the entire storm will be done in 12 hours. I mean that I don't buy a long break in precip between both waves of more than 12 hours. I think both waves will be closer together and more of one feature. The entire system could last much longer than 12 hours if it hits. Ah gotcha, misunderstanding, thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 8:03 PM, jm1220 said: It would take a lot to make this a rain event here, but anything's possible given the trends in the final few days on storms this winter. On 3/13/2014 at 8:18 PM, jm1220 said: NMM is so far north at 15z that places from Philly south might be primarily rain. Almost prescient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Some of the SREFs are so amped they bring rain almost up to where there was rain yesterday, lol. I doubt it gets near there because of the PV in place but it shows there are likely a lot of wet solutions on the various ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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