IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 H5 closing off near Dallas hour 87. Light snow moving into the area. Moderate snow Philly south. Almost the entire eastern third of the country is seeing precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Major hit incoming from 90 hours onward...regardless of whether that secondary low comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 WOW what a change @ H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 hr 87 broad low over the se states…mod snow for dca-baltimore nyc and phl light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 At 90hrs, Upper-low cuts off over Eastern TX. This is strung out into two lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 hr 90-93 mod snow makes it up to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 3:54 PM, Allsnow said: hr 84 mod snow dca-baltimore light snow to nyc How are the temps? Isn't it warm to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Very close to the 00z GGEM. Hour 90 moderate snow moving in. Several sprawled out lows with plenty of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 3:56 PM, Plfdwxdude said: How are the temps? Isn't it warm to start? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 3:56 PM, Plfdwxdude said: How are the temps? Isn't it warm to start? no..plenty cold….surface 850's below mason dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Now lets see if the second wave can run up to coast - I wouldnt expect this run be perfect (Esp at the surface) given how much it changed from 6z, this type of change is something you would expect at 200 not 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hour 99 trough almost neutral tilt over Louisiana, still closed off. Light snow region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This would likely be two snow events-an initial overrunning wave and then the main part with the surface and upper air low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Heights rising a long the coast hour 102. Looking like this will round the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:00 PM, jm1220 said: This would likely be two snow events-an initial overrunning wave and then the main part with the surface and upper air low. That's if you take the GFS at face value. The GGEM has a continuous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 3:59 PM, YanksFan27 said: Hour 99 trough almost neutral tilt over Louisiana, still closed off. Light snow region wide. Judging by your verbage 18-24 hour storm light/Mod. but clearly we hv just taken a gargantuan step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 1:36 AM, jbenedet said: Latest SREF looks good. Definitely more towards GGEM/Euro camp. I'm really thinking the GFS is lacking here due to its lower resolution. The upper level flow is funneling right down through the Rockies. Perhaps the GFS is having trouble resolving this very energetic flow through very complex topography? If anyone knows more about this, or feels similarly, please chime in... On 3/13/2014 at 3:02 PM, jbenedet said: I have to believe the GFS is lost at this point, and the Euro is suffering from its SW bias here of holding back energy, while overdeveloping mid-level and upper-level cyclones. While I'm very skeptical of the NAM and SREF at the end of their range, we can expect them to have a decent handle now on the shortwave/Longwave interaction at around hr 50, when the main model to model discrepencies begin. A bit too premature to celebrate, but can't say I didn't call this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 There's a second wave that comes out underneath us, between 96-102hrs. The main system is still over Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Opens up but then closes back off again at hour 111. Not quite sure that the second part is going to make it all the way up here. Heavy rain a long almost the entire Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Still need the GFS to bring that bowling ball out a bit faster, thats what the GGEM did which is why it showed a HECS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Trough going negative tilt at hour 114. Low off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:03 PM, Highzenberg said: Still need the GFS to bring that bowling ball out a bit faster, thats what the GGEM did which is why it showed a HECS.... But man what a HUGE step towards the GGEM thus far with this storm. The EURO is almost a given to crash the server at 1:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Yup, the second part is going to skid by just offshore. Big, big step towards the GGEM solution. Great trends. I wouldn't concern myself with what it shows at the surface post day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Jeez, what season is it? That modeled mass field looks more like mid Jan. than mid March. Truly anomalous pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Thats a cave. How much QPF from the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:04 PM, REDMK6GLI said: But man what a HUGE step towards the GGEM thus far with this storm. The EURO is almost a given to crash the server at 1:40 It'll be at least 2:15 before we know anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:06 PM, danstorm said: Jeez, what season is it? That modeled mass field looks more like mid Jan. than mid March. Truly anomalous pattern. If that energy consolidates out west, this becomes an anomalous pattern with the potential for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:06 PM, DiehardFF said: Thats a cave. How much QPF from the first wave? 0.34" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The main low looks like it gets kicked out the Pacific system moving into Central Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 On 3/13/2014 at 4:06 PM, DiehardFF said: Thats a cave. How much QPF from the first wave? .35-.4"...the half inch line is between ttn and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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