Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Latest EURO/GGEM have a strong storm signal. GFS not so much.Hopefully we can get on last good storm this winter and the below normal temp pattern in March can finally deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 You likely jinxed it. You guys were doing so good without making a thread 7+ days out but I now fully expect the models t lose this system as we approach the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 I've had good luck with starting threads this year. Every time delivered. It was my duty to bring this bad boy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I've had good luck with starting threads this year. Every time delivered. It was my duty to bring this bad boy in. I'm pulling for you! I really hope this delivers, just have a not-so-great feeling though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Latest EURO/GGEM have a strong storm signal. GFS not so much. Hopefully we can get on last good storm this winter and the below normal temp pattern in March can finally deliver. GFS has a Miller B snowstorm 1 day later. You're not going to get an exact scenario this far out. All models have a storm signal during the March 17th-19th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO Ens mean looks pretty good, I'm guessing there is some big hits mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The euro has been signaling this threat for a few days now. Potent storm on the 12z run today too. Pretty far out still,but each run that passes with a storm shown, is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO Ens mean looks pretty good, I'm guessing there is some big hits mixed in. What are we working with here? Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 March 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 March 1956your analogue or cips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 your analogue or cips? What are we working with here? Miller B? A piece of energy is rounding the top of the base of the PNA ridge and diving SE-ward...We also have a nice little 50/50 feature showing up which helps pin a fairly strong HP near us...How strong this energy diving up from Canada is and @ what angle it comes down at will determine what kind of storm we get, but obviously it is too far out to discuss details... I'd say its a Miller A/B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO has had this storm for 4 runs now, it is also showing up on almost every model. The wave lengths tell me something will occur during this time frame, a snowstorm? Who knows, but it is the last legit threat of the winter, who cares if there is a thread on it? Rather there be a thread then people posting about it in the 12-14th rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 EURO has had this storm for 4 runs now, it is also showing up on almost every model. The wave lengths tell me something will occur during this time frame, a snowstorm? Who knows, but it is the last legit threat of the winter, who cares if there is a thread on it? Rather there be a thread then people posting about it in the 12-14th rain event. true, but we're at the point in the season where we really would be grasping at straws for anything better than a widespread 6" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The pattern is actually more conducive than this week's storm as well. We have a nice PNA ridge, and almost all the models have some sort of PV over SE Canada and a good HP showing up. There will be cold air to work with if this storm forms correctly...Who knows, lets just have fun tracking one more. This is a weather enthusiast web site, not the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 true, but we're at the point in the season where we really would be grasping at straws for anything better than a widespread 6" snowfall Thats my point, I think everyone realizes this...Pointing out a storm threat isn't saying "OMG MASSIVE SNOW COMING" ya know? The threat of some shortwave diving down from Canada at this range has been on all the models for close to 3 days now. Let's have fun with it. If it doesn't happen, so be it, we have 8 months of warmth ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Thats my point, I think everyone realizes this...Pointing out a storm threat isn't saying "OMG MASSIVE SNOW COMING" ya know? The threat of some shortwave diving down from Canada at this range has been on all the models for close to 3 days now. Let's have fun with it. If it doesn't happen, so be it, we have 8 months of warmth ahead. MMMM warmth, I love winter but its made my desire for warm weather a lot more pronounced. we had a great winter historically and next winter who knows with the developing el nino. this storm IMO does have more legs but in mid march we'll need ALOT more to go in our direction than 4 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 That March forecast thread is so lonely. No one will give it the love it could have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, we can revisit this in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 All right, we're close enough. Have at it. Just keep the nonsense out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Upton likes a GGEM/ Euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensembles are pretty bullish for this lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Control run is gorgeous. Been on a roll lately too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Control run is gorgeous. Been on a roll lately too.details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 details?A foot plus area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Control run is gorgeous. Been on a roll lately too. It's always on a roll when it doesn't involve snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's always on a roll when it doesn't involve snow.Um it shows big snows for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Anyone have euro maps they can post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I don't agree with the GFS here. Hanging back that energy over New Mexico/Texas just doesn't make sense to me. I'm thinking this caves very shortly to a Euro/GGEM type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Upton seems really bullish in their AFD about this threat considering its a full 5 days out. I can't paste the discussion because its a pain from my phone, but basically in the last paragraph they talk about factoring in "snow cover" when forecasting temperatures for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Upton seems really bullish in their AFD about this threat considering its a full 5 days out. I can't paste the discussion because its a pain from my phone, but basically in the last paragraph they talk about factoring in "snow cover" when forecasting temperatures for Monday.Check out the hydrology section. They mention significant QPF mostly in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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