Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What's up with these maps on WxBell? They seem to update frequently, this one is from 6z. Does anyone know which model/models they are run from? Those are the actual NWS forecast totals, which is why NYC's WFA is so ridiculous looking compared to bordering areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Is everyone off the ledge now?? Lol I was getting hammered trying to tell people to calm down after the nam and GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Those are the actual NWS forecast totals, which is why NYC's WFA is so ridiculous looking compared to bordering areas. Gotcha. Thanks! Makes sense. Here's a link to the high res UKMET posted by Ryan Maue on twitter, if this were to verify, I think our subforum would implode. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/559598085156794368/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You buying it? I don't know what to think... Not anymore.. I was until I saw all 0z guidance ( including the Euro) shift its precip axis eastward. Like you said earlier I'm starting to think this is the beginning of the Euro slowly starting to move east. But I will tell you one thing.... whoever is caught under that band is gonna cash in like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not anymore.. I was until I saw all 0z guidance ( including the Euro) shift its precip axis eastward. Like you said earlier I'm starting to think this is the beginning of the Euro slowly starting to move east. But I will tell you one thing.... whoever is caught under that band is gonna cash in like no other. All of Orange County is still over 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Gotcha. Thanks! Makes sense. Here's a link to the high res UKMET posted by Ryan Maue on twitter, if this were to verify, I think our subforum would implode. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/559598085156794368/photo/1 Gives me 1" lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 All of Orange County is still over 20" No its not... Its 12-24" W-E Huge gradient from Port Jervis to Cornwall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No its not... Its 12-24" W-E Huge gradient from Port Jervis to Cornwall I heard DT and JC both say that 20:1 ratios would hold up here, that's what I was basin off sorry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Gives me 1" lol.. It's consistently been east. Not to worry. Orange County is 1" to 2" from West to East. That's probably 15" minimum if you get the ratios that NWS is predicting. With that, I'm headed to bed. I was going to skip the Euro, but I couldn't do it. Glad I waited for it. I agree we may see one more slight shift east tomorrow, but I feel much better now than 2 hours ago. And besides, we are going to have almost 48 straight hours of snow. Doesn't happen very often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have flakes flying here in new windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I heard DT and JC both say that 20:1 ratios would hold up here, that's what I was basin off sorry.. Snow ratios are just about the only thing we potentially have going for us especially for those like myself on the western side of things. Relying on good snow ratios has burned us all in the past so who the hell knows now lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snow ratios are just about the only thing we potentially have going for us especially for those like myself on the western side of things. Relying on good snow ratios has burned us all in the past so who the hell knows now lol.. Couldn't agree more.. I would have like the 12z euro to show again but who knows, once this thing gets rippin tomorrows 12z could put that CCB right over us again... I really expect the 06z mods to come in once the trough goes neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z NAM looks to be west of the 0z and more like the ECM now. Much better for the HV and surrounding areas in eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z NAM looks to be west of the 0z and more like the ECM now. Much better for the HV and surrounding areas in eastern NY. 18-24 for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Quick road trip to Danbury? lol.. Looks to be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Quick road trip to Danbury? lol.. Looks to be ground zero. I'll just hop on 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 ridiculous shifts for this time period.. boy does it bury the lower HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z NAM QPF MGJ -- 1.32" SWF -- 1.52" POU -- 1.70" FWN -- 1.13" HPN -- 2.02" MSV -- 0.43" ( Insane cutoff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll just hop on 84 Better get on it before it's shut down Feb 06 was rather tough to take IMBY, something like 5" as I was too far NW for that megaband. It almost would have been easier to get zip in that one I think. Thankfully, this storm looks to not repeat 06 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 keep fingers crossed we get better ratios. I will not complain too much I think you and I sharing the same longitude will be place us just far enough east to do well but it appears likely the most significant band will be a east of us. I think 12-18" covers you and I with those 18-24" or more in the NE NJ area and points NE of there. Ratios may be a touch better here but I doubt drastically better. Best growth area will probably be associated the intense banding but those areas may have more wind which would possibly counter the ratio increase some. Out here less wind but probably less optimum growth do to being on the western edge of best banding. Once west of us things could very well drop off quickly. Obviously a fluid situation thus minor wobbles in final track of system and placement of banding could up or down totals quite a bit in some areas including ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think you and I sharing the same longitude will be place us just far enough east to do well but it appears likely the most significant band will be east of us. And i sit about 9 miles east of you which normally wouldnt mean anything, but this time who knows. I remember vividly for the boxing day blizzard, we had about 15 inches or so with 4 foot drifts in my driveway. I drove to andover the next day & they had maybe 6 or so inches. Thr difference was noticeable going through sparta and was massive just west of the town line into andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hopefully the good trends continue for us! I was checking out the RAP and it appears the trough goes negative, or is about to, at the end of its run. That would seem to be a few hours ahead of the Euro depiction. Just something to watch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Although I think were sitting ok.. I'm worried this thing has major bust potential for some of us up here...that cut off is so sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Although I think were sitting ok.. I'm worried this thing has major bust potential for some of us up here...that cut off is so sharp Forecasters have been mentioning that models often under do the NW deformation band, or don't push it far enough NW. I also don't think the cutoff will be as drastic as some of the models are showing. Looks like this storm will be a beast. I think we're all good for at least a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Forecasters have been mentioning that models often under do the NW deformation band, or don't push it far enough NW. I also don't think the cutoff will be as drastic as some of the models are showing. Looks like this storm will be a beast. I think we're all good for at least a foot.Yeah, lots of talk of how on a strong storm the models don't push the band far enough NW. It's going to be a wild 48 hours regardless and this pattern doesn't look like a one and done. HM was mentioning on Twitter a possible Miller A next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snowing nicely outside... 13.9f w/ a solid coating outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z NAM QPF MGJ -- 1.34" SWF -- 1.56" POU -- 1.65" FWN -- 1.28" HPN -- 2.61" ( WOW) MSV -- 0.43" ( OUCH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z NAM QPF MGJ -- 1.34" SWF -- 1.56" POU -- 1.65" FWN -- 1.28" HPN -- 2.61" ( WOW) MSV -- 0.43" ( OUCH) I didn't think the QPF maps looked that bad really . I guess this is one time im happy to be in lower Sullivan county. Maybe i'm being optimistic but I don't see that sharp of a cutoff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So if I split HPN/POU that puts me at what, 2.1 or so? I'll most definitely take that. Here at work we have a big shindig on Wednesday and they asked me to be here at 7am to receive the food delivery for breakfast. Heheh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Zip 10952 (Rockland county), elevation 550ft, what do your think totals looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.