gravitylover Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 White Plains over to Danbury always seems to do well in these setups. Probably a good call for a local jackpot zone. I wish the storm would just start, this model watching stresses me out! Yeah we have a string of N/S running ridges here that tend to catch a boost when the prevailing winds run the way these are expected to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Annihilate the entire eastern seaboard Well that is what we got from it. A big hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's the one on 293?yesir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Those comment threads on the "Hudson Valley Weather" page on facebook are unreadable... scores of people moaning and complaining about the snow. I'll never understand how someone can live at 40N their whole life and still b**ch about winter weather every single year!Bill and Alex do a really good job with that site but yeah, I can't read the comments. The zone map that they developed for our region is pretty spot on if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The ship jumping is outragous right now.. Do people not learn by last experience with storms like this and the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The ship jumping is outragous right now.. Do people not learn by last experience with storms like this and the euro euro didn't do well with the last system and has a tendency to overamp the mid levels, I'm hoping it holds serve but I doubt it. Looks like the southern vort max might swing a little wider right than 12z had it with the H5 low closing off a bit further southeast... unfortunately that could be the difference between 18" and 8" across southern NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The ship jumping is outragous right now.. Do people not learn by last experience with storms like this and the euro Concern is warranted. It would be astounding to lose almost unanimous support for an historic blizzard less than 36 hours out. It would be incredible, in the strongest sense of the word, for a single model to verify in spite of all other guidance less than 24 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Concern is warranted. It would be astounding to lose almost unanimous support for an historic blizzard less than 36 hours out. It would be incredible, in the strongest sense of the word, for a single model to verify in spite of all other guidance less than 24 hours out... I'm still a bit confused at how this blizzard came to be. The Euro has been on an island vs the other models (possibly save for the SREF's) in forecasting the obscene snowfall totals for the NYC area, yet everyone was throwing out what could be record breaking numbers. I realize the other models had a modest snowstorm (and continue to have, I might add), but they were nothing like the Euro. Also, I went back and looked at the QPF fields for the other model runs today, and if there has been a shift east, it has been minimal at best. They all support a storm that we would take in a heartbeat 99% of the time. I guess it's just hard when our neighbors to the east are getting 2 feet or more. But, we can always pick on whoever ends up with 18" in a subsidence zone while their neighbor in the next town has 30". In any event, I predicted 14-20" earlier today and I thought I was being conservative looking at the other numbers out there. I'm going to stand by it for now, though obviously the lower number is more likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro didn't do well with the last system and has a tendency to overamp the mid levels, I'm hoping it holds serve but I doubt it. Looks like the southern vort max might swing a little wider right than 12z had it with the H5 low closing off a bit further southeast... unfortunately that could be the difference between 18" and 8" across southern NY You should post here more often! You seem to have a lot of insightful posts over on the NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would be shocked if the euro held serve.. The shift east on all other models is a valid concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm still a bit confused at how this blizzard came to be. The Euro has been on an island vs the other models (possibly save for the SREF's) in forecasting the obscene snowfall totals for the NYC area, yet everyone was throwing out what could be record breaking numbers. I realize the other models had a modest snowstorm (and continue to have, I might add), but they were nothing like the Euro. Also, I went back and looked at the QPF fields for the other model runs today, and if there has been a shift east, it has been minimal at best. They all support a storm that we would take in a heartbeat 99% of the time. I guess it's just hard when our neighbors to the east are getting 2 feet or more. But, we can always pick on whoever ends up with 18" in a subsidence zone while their neighbor in the next town has 30". In any event, I predicted 14-20" earlier today and I thought I was being conservative looking at the other numbers out there. I'm going to stand by it for now, though obviously the lower number is more likely to verify. POU receives a liquid equivalent of .47" on the 00z nam and .43" on the 00z GFS while the 12z euro gave near 2".. thats the difference between 18"+ and 4-7". Crazy stuff, i'm real curious to see what the 00z euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would be shocked if the euro held serve.. The shift east on all other models is a valid concern. you really think models that were initially East to begin with will cause the euro to change what it's shown for 4 straight runs.. And not only that...its trended west every run.. It would need to shift 50-100 miles to really screw us.. I just don't see the concern other feel. But we will know soon enough huh? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You should post here more often! You seem to have a lot of insightful posts over on the NE forum. thanks haha, there's not much action in the upstate NY forum so I wandered down here. I'm rooting for you guys with this one, it's all but over further up the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would be shocked if the euro held serve.. The shift east on all other models is a valid concern. I don't think anything could surprise me after this weekend's models, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro appears to have initialized. Say your prayers, make your sacrificial bids, whatever the case may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Regardless of what happens, it should be fun to watch this storm develop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro appears to have initialized. Say your prayers, make your sacrificial bids, whatever the case may be. I expect precip totals cut in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Regardless of what happens, it should be fun to watch this storm develop. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/wv.html Can nicely see the southern short wave swinging ESE on the wv loop, would love to see it go negative a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice hit on the euro but it does make a tremendous difference for those on the west side of things. Totals pretty much sliced in half. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro held serve, for all intents and purposes. The surface low is maybe 25 miles east and the QPF gradient went with it. 1.5" to 2" QPF for all many of us with all of Fairfield County around 2.5". The low itself is a bit stronger and stalls out just inside the BM. A phase two hours earlier or height lines a few archminutes further north over the west Atlantic might have yielded a jackpot over our heads. No warm fuzzy feeling in my belly tonight... this could very easily be the first step of the Euro's notoriously drawn-out corrections. If nothing else, we still have a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nice hit on the euro but it does make a tremendous difference for those on the west side of things. Totals pretty much sliced in half. Time will tell. keep fingers crossed we get better ratios. I will not complain too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Julian.. What's the qpf output for us here in the HV from west to east.. If you would be soo kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 thanks julian. has me around 1.5 to 1.7. 14-20 inches Baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Thanks a bunch!! Yeah doesn't look so bad. Maybe a 25 mile shift.. With some good ratios I can see 18-24 with that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There's your 18-24" right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There's your 18-24" right there You buying it? I don't know what to think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 crazy deformation band near the nose of the trowal across southern NY and sw CT. If this solution comes to fruition whoever is sitting under that band as it pivots has gotta see 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What's up with these maps on WxBell? They seem to update frequently, this one is from 6z. Does anyone know which model/models they are run from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You buying it? I don't know what to think... euro still tucks the sfc low nw as the H5 low closes off, but did trend slightly east and more progressive with the upper-level low. looks like the best mid-level frontogenesis stays further nw than the rest of the models as a result.. gonna come down to the last minute like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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