snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As much as I want to call BS on it it's tough to ignore that this is the Euro at 36 hrs out... Tough to beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Someone on another forum said it becomes vertically stacked and stalls in the right spot for us to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just saw on Facebook that they need to take this board down again for a bit after the Euro is done to fix whatever the issue is. Just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Could the Euro be off its rocker? Could that really verify?? What is it sampling that the others are not? Closes off quicker? Sharper, more negative tilt? And why?I don't know if that will totally verify but it's pretty clear we are in for a heck of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 damn i hit report instead of back to top,hope it doesnt affect anyone...my bad...lock that euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Tickle tickle... not so much. Buckle up fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Noaa put out a power point about the storm with a graphic of most of Orange County in 24-36" but it's not updated on the forcast website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Noaa put out a power point about the storm with a graphic of most of Orange County in 24-36" but it's not updated on the forcast websiteThe label on that map says "worst case". That is only going to confuse the public since they will see it as Uptons forecast, which it could wind up being at some point I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The label on that map says "worst case". That is only going to confuse the public since they will see it as Uptons forecast, which it could wind up being at some point I suppose Gotcha, im out ice fishing and didn't realize it was a max potential map, my bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotcha, im out ice fishing and didn't realize it was a max potential map, my bad lolI had to take a second look myself at that map at first, no worries. Good luck out on the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Euro definitely increased wind potential a bit east of the Hudson. Don't think we'll see blizzard warnings this far north but certainly blizzard conditions are likely at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizzard Warning issued here! I'm surprised but obviously in a great way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizzard Warning issued here! I'm surprised but obviously in a great way! Yup I'm surprised too! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-260430- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND ORANGE COUNTY NEW YORK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Make sure you all save that NWS warning,may never see a warning like that again... Words like "life threatening" "crippling" "historic". This will be epic but let's keep in mind many people could loose their lives God forbid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And when does Cuomo begin to shut things down.. Monday evening I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And when does Cuomo begin to shut things down.. Monday evening I'm guessing. His top advisors Janice huff and mike francesa says 3-6.. Schools WILL be open Tuesday lmao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotcha, im out ice fishing and didn't realize it was a max potential map, my bad lol Updated snow maps have the east side of Orange county in the 24-36" now with the entire forcast area east and south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 His top advisors Janice huff and mike francesa says 3-6.. Schools WILL be open Tuesday lmao... LOL! Then he'll say that the NWS didn't warn anyone and it's all their fault, like he did after Snowvember in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 LOL! Then he'll say that the NWS didn't warn anyone and it's all their fault, like he did after Snowvember in Buffalo. I haven't heard any catchy names for this yet lol.. Like snowvemeber or snowmagedon lol anyone got anything good haha?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not surprised to see the blizzard warnings expanded north. I thought that might happen. The Euro ensembles look good. Most members are actually at or west of the mean. In fact, a handful actually take the storm inland at one point over SE Mass/RI. QPF of 1-1.5" on the mean. 15Z SREF looks good as well with a mean of 22" here. There were several members that had little if any snow at KPOU, and now all but one have more than 10". 18z NAM looks pretty similar, the precipitation shield shrank ever so slightly to the east, but probably model noise at this point. Totals of 12"+ for most of the region. As far as predictions go, I'm not sure I buy into the widespread 2-3 feet totals, I think 14-20" (with lollis to 30) is where I'd start and then adjust from there as the next few model runs come in. I hope I'm wrong, but I think some of us in this forum might be on the wrong side of things. Hopefully the cutoff is farther west than it's being depicted in some of these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think it was the Dec 03 nor'easter, but there was one for sure where the gradient in Orange County went from 18" in New Windsor, 6" in Middletown and 3" in Port Jervis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12-24" W-E.. Is my call. Sharp gradient on this side of the county. Boxing Day had 2'+ near the thruway while I had 12" on my side. This looks like another example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think it was the Dec 03 nor'easter, but there was one for sure where the gradient in Orange County went from 18" in New Windsor, 6" in Middletown and 3" in Port Jervis.I just looked it up, it was 23", 11", and 6" respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think I'll drive down tomorrow and stay at my new windsor house for this storm, hoping to see the most Bang for my buck... My detailed forcast on Noaa has totals ranging from 21-31" Can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol, 18z GFS is even worse than 12z. Kingston gets almost nothing, around .5" for KPOU. We ride the Euro into battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol, 18z GFS is even worse than 12z. Kingston gets almost nothing, around .5" for KPOU. We ride the Euro into battle. GFS is garbage and tends to be the case each storm, srefs, euro, ensembles, ukie, nam. No one should even worry imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So basically we have the Euro and to some extent the SREF's in the 2 ft camp, the GFS/RGEM in the 6-12" camp, and the NAM/GEM somewhere in between. An uneasy forecast for sure, especially with these lofty totals being thrown out there. I see that Albany based their forecast off the WPC, which if you read the WPC discussion was based off a blend of mostly the NAM and Euro with some weight added to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They def blended models cause the euro gave me close 25-30". My P/C forecast is 13-23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They def blended models cause the euro gave me close 25-30". My P/C forecast is 13-23" I guess I'm more referring to the areas where Upton is forecasting widespread 24-36". It just seems high to me based off what I'm seeing. But it will be a dynamic storm, no doubt, and I suspect they are forecasting off of the dynamics and not just the modeled QPF. Btw, Albany going with 14:1 or 15:1 snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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