White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I predict at least a foot here in POU unless models drastically change last minute. Will be a winter wonderland no matter what! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 When the worst model run still has an inch of precipitation, I will take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 most likely a wee bit east of the past 2 epic runs. No reason on my end. The last 2 runs have painted 24-36" for the area from W-E. I doubt it will show that again. That was just nuts. I can see it showing 12+ areawide though. Remember... When the coast stays all snow we rarely if at all jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I swear the New England weenies are worse than the NYC ones. The whole region gets at least 18" on every single model, yet they want it to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I have no idea what to expect from the Euro. Given that model's tendency to make adjustments in small increments this close to go-time, any eastward correction leaves the door open for increased levels of "meh". Seems like a good time to grab a cigar, admire my existing snow, and try not to think about the models until 1 pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I swear the New England weenies are worse than the NYC ones. The whole region gets at least 18" on every single model, yet they want it to move east. Yeah, I closed that tab a few minutes ago... lol. I thought this might finally be one storm where everybody's interests are shared, but the rift between regions appears to be growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, I closed that tab a few minutes ago... lol. I thought this might finally be one storm where everybody's interests are shared, but the rift between regions appears to be growing. IMO, it's because people are insecure and have this need to get the most because it makes them feel better. There's a lot of nutjobs in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I swear the New England weenies are worse than the NYC ones. The whole region gets at least 18" on every single model, yet they want it to move east. I believe that the track the euro has been showing gives rise to some concern of taint/dryslot issues for the se portions up there. Dont know if the concern is warranted, just sayin what they're worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I believe that the track the euro has been showing gives rise to some concern of taint/dryslot issues for the se portions up there. Dont know if the concern is warranted, just sayin what they're worried about. Seems to be a trend east on the models this morning. Check out the main thread. Weenie going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Canadian is a bit of a fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This would be despicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This would be despicable. Does look like Nemo. I'll take a foot and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Does look like Nemo. I'll take a foot and run.My biggest snowfall this season is 7 something inches. Get me a double digit snowfall and I'll be fine, especially since the pattern looks good going foward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If the Euro trends east then its legit. Chances are it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seems to be a trend east on the models this morning. Check out the main thread. Weenie going crazy Yeah, that main thread is something else. Id have to call the "trend" east more of a wobble tho. Thing is a wobble east could be an issue out here, but we'll see. I heard the ukie came west. If the euro holds serve, we have no worries, att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, that main thread is something else. Id have to call the "trend" east more of a wobble tho. Thing is a wobble east could be an issue out here, but we'll see. I heard the ukie came west. If the euro holds serve, we have no worries, att. It's maddening. I think if people actually read models on their own it'd be so much better. Instead someone reads "GEM is east" and it starts a chain reaction of events, when in reality, as you said, a lot of it is model noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, that main thread is something else. Id have to call the "trend" east more of a wobble tho. Thing is a wobble east could be an issue out here, but we'll see. I heard the ukie came west. If the euro holds serve, we have no worries, att. Typical modle chaos. Glad to see the UK bending back west. It will snow, chances are I am not ground zero(I am okay with that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ggem is not reliable at this range that has been said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's maddening. I think if people actually read models on their own it'd be so much better. Instead someone reads "GEM is east" and it starts a chain reaction of events, when in reality, as you said, a lot of it is model noise at this point.Yep, if can drive you nuts. It's the main reason I took a step back a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Typical modle chaos. Glad to see the UK bending back west. It will snow, chances are I am not ground zero(I am okay with that). We will get a very nice storm out here. we never were forecasted to be bulls eyed. We are on the western side of the good snows, but should be ok. If i was in philadelphia area & west from there, id be a lot more concerned att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 If the Euro trends east then its legit. Chances are it is Well if the euro model can go east a little & cut the past 2 runs totals in 1/2, I still get hammered with snow. My first guess for my backyard is around 8-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This forum I love most because we are relatively sane. Ill be happy with a foot considering this winter so far. Anything more is bonus. Anything less I will take, as long as more than 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Me FTW Even that still has me over an inch. C'mon by, I'll be pouring Bloody Marys for the morning shovel session and Rum 'n Cokes for the afternoon. This would be despicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1120 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORTRANGE FORECASTS.MERGING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: TOWARDS THE ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LESS SPREAD THAN THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS, PREFER ACOMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF, WITHTHE LINGERING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE KEEPING CONFIDENCE AVERAGE.CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE.CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING BY WISCONSIN MONDAY/TUESDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: TOWARD THE GFSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD HERE, WITH THE 12Z GFS SPLITTINGTHE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. ASOLUTION TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCECONSIDERING ITS QUICK PROGRESSION AND LINGERING MODEL SPREAD.CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST AND SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUESWITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH THEQPF/PRECIPITATION/WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. IN REVIEWING THE 00ZECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS, ALL THREE HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BECONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF'S SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OTHERGUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM'S BULL'S EYES OVER THEGULF STREAM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO CAUSE AN EASTWARDSHIFT IN ITS 12Z SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS'SBULL'S EYE/QPF BOMB DRAGS ITS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CIRCULATIONACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ON ITS 12Z RUN, MORE TO THE WESTOF THE OTHER GUIDANCE DESPITE ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THEREIS A CHANCE OF SOME WOBBLING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM DUE TO ANINVADING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, WHICHWOULD LEAD TO A LESS EVEN FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GLOBALENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS MIRRORS THE ENVELOPE OFDETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CANADIAN, ANDUKMET. THERE IS NO OVERARCHING TREND SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAYTOWARDS A QUICKER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THENAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD -- IN THE DIRECTION OFTHE 12Z GFS. THE OCCASIONALLY SLOW/PLODDING 09Z SREF MEAN LIES INTHE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD, QUICKER THAN THE 12ZNAM/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SINCE NO SOLUTION CAN BE COMPLETELYDISCOUNTED WHEN USING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, 700 HPA HEIGHTFIELD, AND 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00ZECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z NAM, WHICH ROUGHLYRESEMBLES THE 09Z SREF MEAN AT 500 HPA AND THE SURFACE. FOR QPFAND WINTER WEATHER CHOICES, SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERDISCUSSIONS AND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This forum I love most because we are relatively sane. Ill be happy with a foot considering this winter so far. Anything more is bonus. Anything less I will take, as long as more than 8. I'm with you! Less than 6" and I'm running a giant tarp out over my yard... such pitiful snow isn't deserving of my grass and driveway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Funny you mention tarps. More than once I've covered the driveway and then just grab the corners and drag it out to the street right before a plow comes by. This strategy works up to a couple of inches when wet and a lot more when the snow is dry. Start by pulling the most uphill tarp first and as soon as it gets moving it sides right over the next one with almost no effort. The hard one is the last one, sometimes all I can do is roll it over and then push the last out with a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Anybody get a look at that Euro image posted on the main thread? 36+? Woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 30-40" across our entire subforun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Absolutely amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Could the Euro be off its rocker? Could that really verify?? What is it sampling that the others are not? Closes off quicker? Sharper, more negative tilt? And why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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