nick5892 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah I really can't complain. It's just so any trend east and I know I'll be beyond the cutoff and it's gonna blow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah I really can't complain. It's just so any trend east and I know I'll be beyond the cutoff and it's gonna blow haha I would highly doubt an eastern trend, that would mean a full reversal in most major model trends, I would expect the models to stay their ground now or tick west with each run till the narrow in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I would highly doubt an eastern trend, that would mean a full reversal in most major model trends, I would expect the models to stay their ground now or tick west with each run till the narrow in Some of the SREFS were soo amped that it was showing rain for the coast. I believe one in particular was showing 42" @ POU lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of the SREFS were soo amped that it was showing rain for the coast. I believe one in particular was showing 42" @ POU lol Not so crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of the SREFS were soo amped that it was showing rain for the coast. I believe one in particular was showing 42" @ POU lol We both know the SREF's busted badly at least a few times last winter, but I'd sign up for this run. If you take out the runs with no snow and take out the 42 incher, you still get a mean of 18". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150124&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=POU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.45070723464299&mLON=-72.68973983154297&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I've heard many mets saying that we could exceed 20:1 ratios overnight Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We both know the SREF's busted badly at least a few times last winter, but I'd sign up for this run. If you take out the runs with no snow and take out the 42 incher, you still get a mean of 18". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150124&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=POU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.45070723464299&mLON=-72.68973983154297&mTYP=roadmap Oh I completely agree with you in regards to their inaccuracy but one has to notice the major red flag when the NAM gives zilch yet the majority of the SREF members are not only left of the mean but give us a major storm. Time wil tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Oh I completely agree with you in regards to their inaccuracy but one has to notice the major red flag when the NAM gives zilch yet the majority of the SREF members are not only left of the mean but give us a major storm. Time wil tell Totally agree. I think the Euro will confirm in an hour that it's "game on" for this storm. Everything is leaning that way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Totally agree. I think the Euro will confirm in an hour that it's "game on" for this storm. Everything is leaning that way at this point. If the Euro comes west by about 25 miles this site will crash again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 If the Euro comes west by about 25 miles this site will crash again lol. That afternoon run was extreme. Anything near that, I will consider a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well I'm going to bed before locust appear and the Hudson turns to blood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think that was the most fun I've ever had at 1 am in my adult life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ummm.. Im speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro on the storm. fully engaged in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Can someone explain to me exactly what could be causing this storm to be so much stronger and drop so much more precip from others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Verbatim on the Euro, snow starts Monday early afternoon, heaviest overnight Monday into mid afternoon Tuesday, then tapers off early Wednesday morning. We wouldn't meet blizzard criteria from what I can tell, looks like 15-25 sustained with maybe some gusts to 35-40. Surface temps in high teens to low 20's. I wouldn't be surprised to see Blizzard Watches for at least eastern LI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Verbatim on the Euro, snow starts Monday early afternoon, heaviest overnight Monday into mid afternoon Tuesday, then tapers off early Wednesday morning. We wouldn't meet blizzard criteria from what I can tell, looks like 15-25 sustained with maybe some gusts to 35-40. Surface temps in high teens to low 20's. I wouldn't be surprised to see Blizzard Watches for at least eastern LI though. It's tough for many of us to actually meet the official blizzard criteria up here but that's never stopped us from having one heck of a good storm even if it's not a 'blizzard'. Isn't funny how you and I were mentioning the other day that we liked this threat better than the one we just had...dumb luck on my part, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Woof ... That image makes me happy inside. Yeah the ride home from work on Monday should be "fun" and then I'm off on Tuesday so get to play in the snow all day! Then I come full circle when I realize that I must be in the city at 8am on Wednesday. That should be a fun drive in a car with 4.5" of clearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's tough for many of us to actually meet the official blizzard criteria up here but that's never stopped us from having one heck of a good storm even if it's not a 'blizzard'. Isn't funny how you and I were mentioning the other day that we liked this threat better than the one we just had...dumb luck on my part, LOL. It's funny, a strong threat was showing up on the ensembles (the Euro for sure and I think the GEFS too) several days ago for Monday/Tuesday (I think it was day 9 at the time, so about a week ago). Then it disappeared and today's storm took center stage. But that stuck out in my mind. Once this storm passes, two more potential threats, Friday/Saturday and again on Sunday. Friday looks like possibly another Miller B type storm, Sunday perhaps more of your garden variety clipper. The cold following that is intense. Both the Euro and GFS have lows well below zero on Monday and/or Tuesday. As I said this morning, it should be a fun two week or more stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's funny, a strong threat was showing up on the ensembles (the Euro for sure and I think the GEFS too) several days ago for Monday/Tuesday (I think it was day 9 at the time, so about a week ago). Then it disappeared and today's storm took center stage. But that stuck out in my mind. Once this storm passes, two more potential threats, Friday/Saturday and again on Sunday. Friday looks like possibly another Miller B type storm, Sunday perhaps more of your garden variety clipper. The cold following that is intense. Both the Euro and GFS have lows well below zero on Monday and/or Tuesday. As I said this morning, it should be a fun two week or more stretch. Agreed, could be a historic week for many, you don't see me up this late often looking at models, LOL. Here's to this virtual storm becoming reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good morning! As this storm gets closer and closer to reality I just wanna say it's been a pleasure on this sub forum, very classy. With that said last nights euro run looked more like an over amped nam putting me at about 36-42 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know I'm not the only one who needs more sleep already, LOL. It sure looks like some folks to our east are going to get something epic. I'm just hoping for a double digit snowfall with blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know I'm not the only one who needs more sleep already, LOL. It sure looks like some folks to our east are going to get something epic. I'm just hoping for a double digit snowfall with blowing and drifting.if the euro has anything to say about it the heaviest snowfall of the storm will be centered over most the lower Hudson valley, and 5buroughs, it's been a while since everyone on this board was expect a foot and a half lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not that it matters yet, but by the time that real deal cold hits next week the pack should be so deep that we may see lows rarely seen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 if the euro has anything to say about it the heaviest snowfall of the storm will be centered over most the lower Hudson valley, and 5buroughs, it's been a while since everyone on this board was expect a foot and a half lol If the 12z euro today comes in the same, I might go get some adult diapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not that it matters yet, but by the time that real deal cold hits next week the pack should be so deep that we may see lows rarely seen around here.Oh I'm with you, I made a comment on this too. Not to mention I love a snowstorm on top of a snowpack already in place. Looks like we could build a decent pack now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z GFS spitting out 23.7" for KSWF, just about doubled from last nights 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good morning! As this storm gets closer and closer to reality I just wanna say it's been a pleasure on this sub forum, very classy. With that said last nights euro run looked more like an over amped nam putting me at about 36-42 inches lol Always classy here. At the moment, the children in the main nyc forum are calm and have stopped the nonsense because it appears that their "fix" is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z GFS spitting out 23.7" for KSWF, just about doubled from last nights 00z run.Oh I'm liking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Did you guys see where the experimental max snowfall forecast from Upton shows up... https://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY/posts/992278910801424:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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