Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least the GFS gives us a consolation prize in the form of eye candy next week for having suffered through the less-than-stellar 00z NCEP suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm still liking my initial thinking of 6-10" area wide up here. If tonight's models trend west again then higher amounts may be possible so far all have trended dryer except the nogaps. not the trend we wanted thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not so good trends tonight! The GEM, which nailed us at 12z, now has about 0.2" of QPF or less for most of us. Depending on what the Euro shows, we may need to hope this storm gets really pushed out to sea and gives storm 2 more of a chance to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowing here atm with a fresh coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowing here atm with a fresh coating. Same here.. Lgt snow falling w/ roughly .25" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Another school delay for .25". Hmm, whatever the Saturday storm ends up doing it looks like my commute home from the city is gonna suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Why are events seemingly especially this year so hard to forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least the GFS gives us a consolation prize in the form of eye candy next week for having suffered through the less-than-stellar 00z NCEP suite... I think I'm more interested in this than this weekend. Watch today's 12z come in a little better again for this weekend and everyone go crazy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think I'm more interested in this than this weekend. Watch today's 12z come in a little better again for this weekend and everyone go crazy again. I agree, I think we stand to gain more from Monday's system than Saturday's. The Euro ensembles for Saturday look fairly unchanged, track wise. They show 3-6" region wide for Saturday and 6-9" region wide after the system passes by on Monday. That second amount is for both systems combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I agree, I think we stand to gain more from Monday's system than Saturday's. The Euro ensembles for Saturday look fairly unchanged, track wise. They show 3-6" region wide for Saturday and 6-9" region wide after the system passes by on Monday. That second amount is for both systems combined. .2 this morning. It could be that we get more from Saturday, it was just I wasn't sure why so many were pulling triggers so quick. That said, I'd love to shovel a foot on Saturday but...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 .2 this morning. It could be that we get more from Saturday, it was just I wasn't sure why so many were pulling triggers so quick. That said, I'd love to shovel a foot on Saturday but...we shall see. Although out of range Nam looks to line up with globals, coastal scrapper, with backend CCB, what troubles me is a sub 980 low has such a lack of precip with a wide open Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Uptons firs tthoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Although out of range Nam looks to line up with globals, coastal scrapper, with backend CCB, what troubles me is a sub 980 low has such a lack of precip with a wide open Gulf Stream Albany's AFD: THIS STORM BEARS WATCHING BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO TUCK IN THE COAST AND BRING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM. THE STORM IS ANCHORED THE SOUTHERN JETSTREAM. MOST GUIDANCE KEEP IT SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE SO THE STORM IS EJECTED OUT TO SEA. THAT SAID...THE LATEST EUROPEAN HINTED OF SOME PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...TUCKING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST...BRING SNOWFALL TO THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING THE SNOW SHIELD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THERE WERE A FEW MEMBERS THAT TRACKED THE STORM CLOSER TO THE "BENCHMARK" OFF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT MOST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Although out of range Nam looks to line up with globals, coastal scrapper, with backend CCB, what troubles me is a sub 980 low has such a lack of precip with a wide open Gulf Stream I mentioned yesterday how this is one case where I can actually buy into the malnourished precip on the poleward side. There looks to be plenty of moisture (and probably convection) on the warm side of the storm, which is consistent with a bomb over relatively warm waters. I do, however, get the feeling that the clipper system to the north of the GL is screwing us over to some extent. That system is progged to draw north drier, more uniformly modified air, which might serve to 1) limit the spatial extent of frontogenetical forcing, and 2) create a "buffer" between the two synoptic systems. 06z GFS 700 mb RH: And an accompanying sounding: Of course, if the whole thing continues trending eastward, it won't matter much anyway. I do believe we have less room than normal to work with, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think I'm more interested in this than this weekend. Watch today's 12z come in a little better again for this weekend and everyone go crazy again. Amazing how we can go from hearing 30" calls to hitting the "next" button in 12 hours... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That GLL seems to be a little stronger on each model run too, which I'm guessing is playing a role in limiting the NW extent of the precipitation shield. It's too bad one of them couldn't speed up or slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That GLL seems to be a little stronger on each model run too, which I'm guessing is playing a role in limiting the NW extent of the precipitation shield. It's too bad one of them couldn't speed up or slow down. 12 GFS does not look all that bad for those of us up here, much wider precip shield than previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Monday looks good on the GFS. Should be a nice looking weenie snow map by the end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The reasonable course of action would be to blend the Euro and GFS solutions, yielding absolute bupkis for both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The reasonable course of action would be to blend the Euro and GFS solutions, yielding absolute bupkis for both storms. I had the exact same thought last night. Expect the worst, hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That GLL seems to be a little stronger on each model run too, which I'm guessing is playing a role in limiting the NW extent of the precipitation shield. It's too bad one of them couldn't speed up or slow down. Exactly what I've been noticing as well. Time will tell I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Look at the odd cutoff of the modeled precipitation field here on the GEM, it's like it just disappears over NE PA and SE NY. Julian, what are your thoughts? We know there's going to be a sharp cutoff, but this just looks bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 hey bud... it's not really odd (and I'm not Julian haha). Actually it makes sense if you believe the model as depicted. 500mb is not perfect for us up this way. I'm not saying that's what will happen, just trying to answer your question. Happy snow hunting, neighbors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Look at the odd cutoff of the modeled precipitation field here on the GEM, it's like it just disappears over NE PA and SE NY. Julian, what are your thoughts? We know there's going to be a sharp cutoff, but this just looks bizarre. Heh, definitely an underwhelming look there. Take a gander at 500mb, and then back at yesterday's 12z CMC, which attempted to deliver the goods locally... Today's depiction is of a much less mature system from the surface all the way to the upper atmosphere. It still deepens nicely due to the colocation of divergent jet streaks at 300 mb, but we don't get a mature commahead until several frames after it gets booted eastward. I think the QPF field looks weird because we're used to seeing WAA precip well before the conveyor belt structure takes hold, but since we have a clipper where our arctic high should be, that's very limited here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I will enjoy by 2-4 inches on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It appears that your earlier call of 1-3" may end up being spot on JC. I was thinking 4-8" was a possibility yesterday, but that is doubtful at this point. I'd certainly be happy to end up with 2-4" as Matt said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah, I'd consider 2" a win. Any snow at all through the first couple days of February would keep me ahead of last year, so I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yawn. Next. Nickel and dime snow gets tiring. Sorry for the negativity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't Jump yet ,I keep hearing Feb 1 is a whopper,,,,,yeah yeah sure...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't Jump yet ,I keep hearing Feb 1 is a whopper,,,,,yeah yeah sure...lol Lol it's only snow.. Atleast we've had some winter weather to speak of. The coasties are all in the 1-4" range for the season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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