chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nice trend on the GEFS 12z 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I love where we sit for this one.. Can't say I share your enthusiasm after what we have dealt with over the last few years with sharp cutoffs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can't say I share your enthusiasm after what we have dealt with over the last few years with sharp cutoffs lol Same here. Have a bad feeling we inland folks get shut out once again while the coasties throw a big snow party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Same here. Have a bad feeling we inland folks get shut out once again while the coasties throw a big snow party. You have a bad feeling about everything lol 12z NAM MGJ -- .58" Snow SWF -- .64"Snow POU -- .70" Snow FWN -- .57" Snow Not saying we jackpot but places that do see the highest qpf most likely taint anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You have a bad feeling about everything lol 12z NAM MGJ -- .58" Snow SWF -- .64"Snow POU -- .70" Snow FWN -- .57" Snow Not saying we jackpot but places that do see the highest qpf most likely taint anyway. Whats MSV looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You have a bad feeling about everything lol 12z NAM MGJ -- .58" Snow SWF -- .64"Snow POU -- .70" Snow FWN -- .57" Snow Not saying we jackpot but places that do see the highest qpf most likely taint anyway. and gfs gives us flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ggem looked great for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ggem looked great for most of us Looks like an all snow event for the interior w/ a Sn-Rn-Sn scenario for the immediate burbs/NYC/LI. As we continue to get closer I'm pretty sure we will see precip amounts increase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm actually not feeling great about this event either. With most rapidly deepening nor'easters it's fair to assume that the stratiform precip shield will extend further NW than indicated by early QPF. In this case, with such a broad thermal gradient, it's going be a struggle to snag any meaningful thermogenesis. Combine that with a lack of northern stream entrainment, a dry airmass, and a benchmark-ish track and you have the recipe for a fringe-job of unholy proportions. Now more than ever we need a coastal hugger. Edit: here's hoping the Canadian has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm actually not feeling great about this event either. With most rapidly deepening nor'easters it's fair to assume that the stratiform precip shield will extend further NW than indicated by early QPF. In this case, with such a broad thermal gradient, it's going be a struggle to snag any meaningful thermogenesis. Combine that with a lack of northern stream entrainment, a dry airmass, and a benchmark-ish track and you have the recipe for a fringe-job of unholy proportions. Now more than ever we need a coastal hugger. Edit: here's hoping the Canadian has a clue. I guess I'm the only optimistic one in here lol.. I can easily see this being a 6-10" event for anyone of us in this forum. I don't think we jackpot but a nice sized storm is def in the cards for us. We all know if we start hearing the words taint, mix, rain, etc for the coast then we won't be fringed. Usually the rule I go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 I guess I'm the only optimistic one in here lol.. I can easily see this being a 6-10" event for anyone of us in this forum. I don't think we jackpot but a nice sized storm is def in the cards for us. We all know if we start hearing the words taint, mix, rain, etc for the coast then we won't be fringed. Usually the rule I go by. I am on the same bus. Looks like a solid 8-12 inch type dump. If I get 4 inches, so be it. Mixed bag in NYC and long island for a large chunck of the storm is my call. Storm has all the ear markings to produce for us. GFS should start to come around this afternoon. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hope you folks are right. If I had to make a guess for mby, it would be something like 1-3", but thankfully it's still very early. Let's see what the Euro has to say in a few minutes here. Maybe I've just spent too much time around Doorman though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Step in the right direction for sure. What a beastly looking storm, snowfall amounts notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Either a huge win or a huge fail for the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can you post a quick snap shot of the weenie snow map for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is now public domain I assume, it was tweeted by Cantore and retweeted by Ryan Maue https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/557967931078742016/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM weenie snow map Both the GEM and Euro appear to have made a 25 mile or so shift from 00z. I would love another 25 mile shift in our direction though. But this may be the best possible solution to spread the wealth among the entire metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man, this would be a fun storm to be on the outer Cape for (as presently modeled). They should be far enough north to avoid much taint, and the Euro is showing 70 mph gusts with 1+" of QPF in 6 hours at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Quiet in here considering there is possibly a major storm on the way! Euro ensemble track is fairly similar to OP, perhaps a shade NW. I will say that most members are near the mean or west of it, very few are east of it. The spread increases a bit when it passes by the BM (984 mb on the mean at this point btw). Looks like a decent track for most of us. As mentioned in the storm thread, the 17 km Ukmet is a coastal scraper with little if any snow for most of us. We do get a few inches of snow from a system on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Quiet in here considering there is possibly a major storm on the way! Euro ensemble track is fairly similar to OP, perhaps a shade NW. I will say that most members are near the mean or west of it, very few are east of it. The spread increases a bit when it passes by the BM (984 mb on the mean at this point btw). Looks like a decent track for most of us. As mentioned in the storm thread, the 17 km Ukmet is a coastal scraper with little if any snow for most of us. We do get a few inches of snow from a system on Monday. Quite a few of those euro members really go to town for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Quiet in here considering there is possibly a major storm on the way! Euro ensemble track is fairly similar to OP, perhaps a shade NW. I will say that most members are near the mean or west of it, very few are east of it. The spread increases a bit when it passes by the BM (984 mb on the mean at this point btw). Looks like a decent track for most of us. As mentioned in the storm thread, the 17 km Ukmet is a coastal scraper with little if any snow for most of us. We do get a few inches of snow from a system on Monday. Based on how things have gone most of this winter, we have reason to be very skeptical. Hoping for the best, but not expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Based on how things have gone most of this winter, we have reason to be very skeptical. Hoping for the best, but not expecting. Yea there is a very sharp cutoff with this storm in our area.. 20miles could be the difference between 2" or 10", the ensembles and ops have trended slightly NW as has the globals over the last few days, would be nice to see any warning level snow though so I won't be greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 8-16....West to East gradient..........Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I am rooting for a coastal hugger so we inland folks get the heaviest, but also want to see heavy snow for the coast guys since they especially have been so snow starved. What synoptic factors would influence a closer to the coast scenario? Earlier phasing? Strong SE ridge? Weaker confluence NE of us?, What are the teleconnection projected values by Saturday that would contribute to track? Why such a difference between GFS and other models? Any other pieces of energy on the continent that could affect trough axis or phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 here we go men & women I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Pretty much looks like a blend of the Euro/GEM. I'd take it, but as I said, I'd like to see that low move just a little more NW. That sharp cutoff is definitely a concern. I'd almost rather deal with the issue of taint and take my chances with getting into the heavier banding. In any event, as a preliminary guess, I'd start at 4-8" for our region with the higher amounts for those further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Pretty much looks like a blend of the Euro/GEM. I'd take it, but as I said, I'd like to see that low move just a little more NW. That sharp cutoff is definitely a concern. I'd almost rather deal with the issue of taint and take my chances with getting into the heavier banding. In any event, as a preliminary guess, I'd start at 4-8" for our region with the higher amounts for those further south and east. If the taint is nearby it will snow hard.. When the coast stays all snow then we have problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm still liking my initial thinking of 6-10" area wide up here. If tonight's models trend west again then higher amounts may be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm still shoveling DTs snow from last weekend...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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